1、J.Geogr.Sci.2023,33(3):429-448 DOI:https:/doi.org/10.1007/s11442-023-2090-1 2023 Science Press Springer-Verlag Identification of regional pattern of climate change risk in China under different global warming targets WU Shaohong1,2,CHAO Qingchen3,GAO Jiangbo1,LIU Lulu1,FENG Aiqing3,DENG Haoyu1,ZUO L
2、iyuan1,2,LIU Wanlu1,2 1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Re-sources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;2.College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;3.National Climate Center,Beij
3、ing 100081,China Abstract:Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the economy.Regional climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change,which can be expressed as a regional system of comprehensive climate change risk.This study establishes
4、 regional systems of climate change risks under the proposed global warming targets.Results of this work are spatial patterns of climate change risks in China,indicated by the degree of climate change and the status of the risk receptors.Therefore,the risks show significant spatial differences.The h
5、igh-risk regions are mainly distributed in East,South,and central China,while the medium-high risk regions are found in North and south-western China.Under the 2C warming target,more than 1/4 of Chinas area would be at high and medium-high risk,which is more severe than under the 1.5C warming target
6、,and would extend to the western and northern regions.This work provides regional risk characteristics of climate change under different global warming targets as a foundation for dealing with climate change.Keywords:regional system of comprehensive climate change risk;global warming targets;top-dow
7、n and bot-tom-up methods;spatial pattern;risk receptor 1 Introduction Since the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century,the development of human society and economy has contributed to climate change.Climate change has attracted increasing atten-tion from global governments,academia,and the public(
8、Edenhofer et al.,2007;IPCC,2007,2012,2014a,2014b;Giddens,2009;Pindyck,2013).The sixth assessment report(AR6)launched by the IPCC shows that global mean temperature has increased by 1.1 compared to the period 18501900,and global warming will continue for a long period(IPCC,2021).The 21st Conference o
9、f the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change Received:2022-06-13 Accepted:2022-11-01 Foundation:The National Key R&D Program of China,No.2018YFC1509002;The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA19040304 Author:Wu Shaohong,Professor,specializ
10、ed in physical geography.E-mail: 430 Journal of Geographical Sciences (COP 21 of UNFCCC)in Paris reached a broad consensus on the global response to climate change,emphasizing that the global average temperature rise should be controlled within 2 above the pre-industrial level,and efforts should be
11、made to limit the temperature rise within 1.5 above the pre-Industrial Revolution level(UNFCCC,2015).The IPCC special report,Global Warming of 1.5 points out that compared with global warming of 2.0,the impact and risk caused by global warming of 1.5 would be lower(IPCC,2018).But there is considerab
12、le uncertainty in achieving a controlled warming of 2.0 in this century(Cli-mate Action Tracker,2017;Raftery et al.,2017).Therefore,assessing the key risks of cli-mate change under different warming targets and finding ways to address climate change should become a key priority(Kahn et al.,2016).In
13、the future,global and Chinese regional temperatures would continue to rise,and the warming rate would accelerate with higher emission scenarios.Multimodel ensemble average analyses of global and Chinese mean temperatures from 1851 to 2100 relative to the preIndustrial Revolution(average from 1861 to
14、 1900)under the representative concentration pathway(RCP)8.5 scenario shows that the global average temperature rise would reach 1.5 in 2026 and 2 in 2040,while aver-ages in China would exceed 1.8 and 2.5 respectively(Wu et al.,2019a,2019b).Warm-ing is the main characteristic of global climate chang
15、e,resulting in increasing climatic driv-ing forces on social and economic development;increasing extreme event frequencies and chain reactions of disasters,and compounded disasters;bringing high risks to populations,economies,agricultural production,and ecosystems in climate change sensitive regions
16、(Roderick et al.,2012;Sheffield et al.,2012).Continual temperature and precipitation changes would increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and lead to greater disaster risk(Wu et al.,2019a).Adaptation is an important pathway to deal with climate change,and recognizing and avoiding climate change risks are the premise of that adaptation.Natural regional system studies examine the natural complexity of the Earths surface from a systems perspective(Kppen et al.,1931;Huang,1959;
