1、February 28,2023New Home Sales in China Pick Up After aLong S housing marketa major growth engine forthe worlds second-largest economyis showing signsof bottoming out.作为全球第二大经济体的主要增长引擎，中国的房地产市场正显示出触底的迹象Photo:图片来源:Bloomberg News 彭博新闻社New home sales at Chinas largest property developersrose on a yearl
2、y basis in February after a longdownturn,as the countrys post-Covid reopening andlower mortgage rates helped draw home buyers backto its moribund housing market.在经历了长期低迷之后，2月份中国各大房地产开发商的新房销售量同比增长，原因是新冠疫情后中国重新开放以及抵押贷款利率下降，帮助将购房者吸引回到死气沉沉的房地产市场。Monthly sales at the countrys top 100 real-estatedeveloper
3、s increased 14.9%from February 2022 to theequivalent of$66.5 billion,according to private datareleased Tuesday by China Real Estate InformationCorp.,which tracks the industry.It was the first timethat this measure of sales grew annually since thesector began slumping in July 2021,when propertygiant
4、China Evergrande Group began to struggle withliquidity problems.中国房地产信息集团(China Real Estate InformationCorp)周二发布的私人数据显示，中国前100大房地产开发商的月销售额较2022年2月增长14.9%，达到665亿美元。这是自2021年7月房地产行业开始下滑以来，这一销售指标首次出现年度增长。2021年7月，房地产巨头中国恒大集团(China Evergrande Group)开始面临流动性问题。Chinas property sector,a major engine for the w
5、orldssecond-largest economy,has been mired in a longslump that followed a government campaign to curbexcessive borrowing by developers.The deleveragingpush ultimately caused Evergrande and dozens of itspeers to run short of cash and default on theirinternational debt,leaving investors with huge loss
6、es,contractors and suppliers with unpaid bills and manyhomeowners with unfinished and undelivered homes.作为全球第二大经济体的主要引擎，中国房地产业陷入了长期低迷。此前，中国政府发起了遏制开发商过度借贷的运动。去杠杆化的努力最终导致 Evergrande 及其数十个国家的现金短缺，国际债务违约，投资者蒙受巨额亏损，承包商和供应商账单未付，许多房屋所有者的房屋尚未完工或无法交付。In November 2022,after monthly new home sales haddeclined
7、in double-digit percentage terms for morethan a year,Chinese authorities dialed back some oftheir property-sector curbs.State-owned commercialbanks began showering stronger developers withcredit,immediately alleviating their financialpressures and giving potential home buyersconfidence that the comp
8、anies would be able to finishbuilding apartments they had presold.2022年11月，在月度新屋销售量连续一年多以两位数的百分比下降之后，中国当局收回了一些对房地产行业的限制措施。国有商业银行开始向实力较强的开发商提供大量信贷，这立即缓解了它们的财务压力，并让潜在购房者相信，这些公司将能够完成预售公寓的建设。The Chinese government,on central and local levels,rolled out measures to encourage people to buyhomes.Many citie
9、s scrapped restrictions on howmany properties each person can purchase and howmuch a homeowner can borrow.中国政府在中央和地方层面出台了鼓励人们购房的措施。许多城市取消了对每个人可以购买多少房产以及房主可以借多少钱的限制。Chinese commercial banks had also loweredbenchmark lending rates that mortgages are peggedto,taking the countrys average mortgage rate t
10、o itslowest since 2019.The average mortgage rate for first-time home buyers is currently 4.04%,according toBeike Research Institute.中国各商业银行也下调了与抵押贷款挂钩的基准贷款利率，使中国的平均抵押贷款利率降至2019年以来的最低水平。根据北科研究院的数据，目前首次购房者的平均抵押贷款利率为4.04%。The new home sales growth in February was partlybecause of a low comparison base.
11、Last years LunarNew Year holiday,which is usually a slower period forhome sales,took place in February 2022.Later thatmonth,Covid-19 infections started to pick up acrossChina,and restrictions on movement were applied insome cities that limit peoples ability to visit propertiesand showrooms.2月份新屋销售增长
12、的部分原因在于比较基数较低。去年的农历新年假期是2022年2月，通常是房屋销售较为缓慢的时期。当月晚些时候，2019冠状病毒疾病传染病开始在中国各地蔓延，一些城市实施了行动限制，限制了人们参观房产和展厅的能力。Still,the year-over-year increase was noteworthy andsignaled that Chinas housing market could be startingto bottom out.There have been other signs of anascent recovery;Country Garden Holdings Co.
13、,alarge private developer,is planning to buy residentialland in government auctions again after a long hiatus,The Wall Street Journal reported last week.尽管如此，这一同比增长仍然值得注意，并且表明中国房地产市场可能已经开始触底。华尔街日报(TheWall Street Journal)上周报道称，还有其他迹象表明经济正在复苏。大型私人开发商碧桂园控股有限公司(Country Garden Holdings Co.)计划在长时间的中断后，再次通
14、过政府拍卖购买住宅用地。The growth trend could continue in the comingmonths,led by increased sales in top-tier cities,saidBruce Pang,chief China economist at Jones LangLaSalle.March is also usually a better month for homesales.Lower-tier,or economically poorer Chinesecities,on the other hand,may experience lack
15、lustergrowth,said Mr.Pang.仲量联行首席中国经济学家彭日成表示，在一线城市销售增长的带动下，未来几个月，这种增长趋势可能会持续下去。三月通常也是房屋销售较好的月份。庞先生说，另一方面，中国的二三线城市，或经济较为贫困的城市，可能会经历低迷的增长。When the broader housing market will recoverremains uncertain,said Song Hongwei,a researchdirector at Tongce Research Institute,which tracksand analyzes Chinas real-
16、estate market.Developershave been acquiring far less land,and consumerconfidence hasnt yet returned,he notes.“Our forecastis that the market wont touch bottom and rebounduntil the second half of this year,”said Mr.Song.汤策研究所跟踪分析中国房地产市场的研究主任宋宏伟(音译)表示，更广泛的房地产市场何时复苏仍不确定。他指出，开发商获得的土地要少得多，消费者信心尚未恢复。“我们的预测是，市场不会触底反弹，直到今年下半年,”宋先生说。
