1、|FOCUS 02/04/2019 1 Source:Bloomberg,Platts and BNP Paribas*Conversion factors for Europe products:8.33 for gasoline and 7.45 for gasoil.US conversion factors 42 gallons to a barrel.*Note that forecasted annual averages are those at the time of publication and are not amended as and when realised qu
2、arterly averages are updated in the table.COMMODITIES FOCUS|Global 02 April 2019 Please refer to important information and MAR disclosures at the end of this report Harry Tchilinguirian,Economist Oil|BNP Paribas London Branch OIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCE Table 1:Recent price trends Table 2:Pr
3、ice forecasts*Prev.ClosePrev.Close vs.1 Jan 2018Prev.Close vs.2 Jan 201701 Apr 1901 Mar 1901 Feb 19Change%Change01 Jan 19Change%Change01 Jan 18NYMEX WTI(USD/bbl)61.59 55.80 55.26 15.0532.3%46.54 1.222.0%60.37ICE Brent(USD/bbl)69.16 65.00 62.90 14.4826.5%54.68 2.613.9%66.55Dubai(USD/bbl)68.20 66.60 6
4、0.85 16.3531.5%51.85 3.856.0%64.36NYMEX RBOB(USD/bbl)79.75 72.67 60.35 24.0743.2%55.68 5.707.7%74.05Eurobob(USD/bbl)78.15 65.13 61.44 21.1337.1%57.02 5.167.1%72.99SGP Unl(USD/bbl)77.54 70.54 61.10 22.5841.1%54.96 1.051.4%76.49NYMEX Heating Oil(USD/bbl)83.50 84.04 80.33 12.0716.9%71.43-2.95-3.4%86.45
5、ICE Gasoil(USD/bbl)81.74 82.52 78.46 13.5519.9%68.19 1.471.8%80.27SGP Gasoil(USD/bbl)80.47 81.86 72.54 18.8730.6%61.60 1.752.2%78.72NYMEX RBOB(US/gal)189.88 173.02 143.69 57.3143.2%132.57 13.577.7%176.31Eurobob(USD/tonne)651.00 542.50 511.75 176.0037.1%475.00 43.007.1%608.00NYMEX Heating Oil(US/gal)
6、198.81 200.10 191.26 28.7416.9%170.07-7.02-3.4%205.83ICE Gasoil(USD/tonne)608.96 614.77 584.53 100.9519.9%508.02 10.951.8%598.01Price forecastIssue Date2017Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018Q1 Q2 fQ3 fQ4 f2019 fNYMEX WTI(USD/bbl)05/02/1950.9262.8567.8969.4959.0064.8154.7562666161ICE Brent(USD/bbl)05/02/1954.7367.1974
7、.9875.8668.3471.5963.6969736768Dubai(USD/bbl)05/02/1953.1263.9772.0574.1567.5169.4263.2070726668NYMEX RBOB(USD/bbl)05/02/1968.3578.1688.5786.4068.7980.4866.3477817273Eurobob(USD/bbl)05/02/1965.7374.0884.8486.4870.0878.8764.2875817172SGP Prem Unl(USD/bbl)05/02/1967.9677.6584.2285.7473.2180.2067.18778
8、07274NYMEX Heating Oil(US$/bbl)05/02/1969.8583.4290.1591.5286.7487.9681.1485909087ICE Gasoil(USD/bbl)05/02/1966.3779.7988.2989.6684.9785.6879.1184898985SGP Gasoil 0.05%(USD/bbl)05/02/1965.6478.7486.6788.5182.3284.0675.8783888984NYMEX RBOB(US/gal)05/02/19162.74186.10210.88205.71163.79191.6157.9518319
9、3171174Eurobob(USD/Tonne)05/02/19547.53617.06706.72720.35583.80657.0535.47625675591600NYMEX Heating Oil(US/gal)05/02/19166.31198.62214.64217.90206.52209.4193.19202214214207ICE Gasoil(USD/Tonne)05/02/19494.46594.44657.76667.97633.03638.3589.37626663663633Source:Bloomberg,Platts and BNP Paribas|FOCUS
10、01/04/2019 2 OIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCE COMMODITIES Table 3:Implied 3:2:1 cracks based on Table 2 forecasts Chart 1:Crude oil price forecasts vs.Bloomberg survey Implied Margins2017Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018Q1 Q2 fQ3 fQ4 f2019 fUS 3:2:1 WTI Crack(USD/bbl)17.9317.0621.2118.6215.7718.1616.5218181717US
11、3:2:1 Brent Crack(USD/bbl)14.1212.7214.1212.256.4311.387.5811111110Europe 3:2:1 Brent Crack(USD/bbl)11.218.7911.0111.686.719.555.53911108Singapore 3:2:1 Dubai Crack(USD/bbl)14.0714.0412.9912.528.7412.076.88911129Source:Bloomberg(02/04/19)and BNP Paribas(05/02/19)5560636360556266616130354045505560657
12、075Q119Q219Q319Q41919Bloomberg ConsensusBNP ParibasUSD/bblWTI6367707067646973676830354045505560657075Q119Q219Q319Q41919Bloomberg ConsensusBNP ParibasBrentUSD/bblTable 4:BNP Paribas world oil balance assumptions*02 April 2019Q117Q217Q317Q4172017Q118Q218Q318Q4182018Q119Q219Q319Q4192019OECD Demand46.94
13、7.047.748.147.447.947.248.147.847.747.947.548.548.248.0Non OECD Demand49.651.150.850.650.550.651.651.851.851.551.652.853.053.052.6World Demand96.698.198.498.797.998.598.899.999.699.299.6100.2101.4101.2100.6World Demand(y/y)1.02.01.51.51.51.90.71.50.91.31.11.41.51.61.4Demand Memo itemsUS-5019.520.120
14、.020.220.020.220.320.620.620.520.620.721.020.920.8OECD Europe13.814.314.714.414.314.114.214.714.114.314.014.314.814.214.3Japan4.33.63.64.13.94.33.43.53.93.84.13.33.43.83.7China12.412.912.312.712.612.813.013.213.113.013.113.413.613.613.5FSU4.34.54.74.64.54.54.64.94.84.74.64.75.04.94.8Middle East8.28.
15、78.98.28.58.28.58.88.28.48.38.78.98.38.6India4.54.74.44.74.64.84.94.54.94.85.05.14.75.15.0Brazil2.93.03.13.03.02.92.93.13.13.03.03.03.13.13.1IEA World Demand*96.698.198.498.797.998.598.899.999.699.299.6100.4101.3101.1100.6y/y growth1.02.01.51.51.51.90.71.50.91.31.11.61.31.51.4US EIA World Demand*97.
16、198.699.199.498.699.199.5100.4100.799.9100.7100.9102.0102.0101.4y/y growth1.02.01.61.91.62.00.91.31.31.41.61.41.61.21.5Non OPEC Oil Supply59.459.460.060.759.961.162.163.464.162.763.663.965.065.264.4Non OPEC Oil Supply(y/y)0.01.01.11.00.81.72.73.43.42.82.51.91.61.11.8OPEC Crude Oil Supply31.732.032.4
17、32.032.031.731.632.032.231.9-OPEC NGLS5.65.55.55.45.55.55.55.55.65.55.65.65.65.65.6World Supply96.696.997.898.297.498.399.2101.0101.9100.1-Residual to balance10.1-1.2-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.20.31.12.30.9-Memo itemsOECD Industry Stocks(Chg)0.3-0.1-0.5-1.3-0.4-0.50.00.50.10.0-OECD Gov.Stocks(Chg)0.0-0.1-0.1-0.
18、1-0.10.1-0.10.0-0.2-0.1-BNPP Call on OPEC Crude231.633.132.932.532.531.931.231.029.931.030.430.730.930.530.6IEA Call on OPEC Crude231.633.132.932.532.531.931.231.030.031.030.430.930.730.430.61)The residual(the difference between global oil demand and supply plus OECD stock changes)is a statistical b
19、alancing item that reflects unaccounted supply,demand and inventory changes 2)The amount of crude oil required from OPEC to balance supply and demand absent a change in inventory or price.*Latest forecast available at the time of publication of assumptions.*No assumption made on future OPEC crude pr
20、oduction as this is a discretionary decision*Source:IEA,U.S.EIA and BNP Paribas.Certain aggregates may not add up due to rounding.Source:Bloomberg,Platts and BNP Paribas(05/02/19)|FOCUS 01/04/2019 3 OIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCE COMMODITIES Table 5:OPEC crude oil supply assumptions and implied
21、 global stock changes 1)The amount of crude oil required from OPEC to balance supply and demand absent a change in inventory or price.2)Implied global stock change is difference between OPEC crude oil production and the Call on OPEC crude oil.Source:History-International Energy Agency,Projections-BN
22、P Paribas.Certain aggregates may not add up due to rounding.Chart 2:OPEC crude oil production and assumptions,call on OPEC crude oil and implied global stock changes Chart 3:world oil balance in 2018 and 2019 Source:IEA-history,BNP Paribas projections Q12019 onwards(02/04/19)assumes that OPEC+will m
23、aintain supply for the whole of 2019 Source:IEA and BNP Paribas(02/04/19)assumes that OPEC+will maintain supply for the whole of 2019 Q117Q217Q317Q4172017Q118Q218Q318Q4182018Q119Q219Q319Q4192019World demand,non-OPEC supply&OPEC NGLs(assumption at 02/04/19)World demand96.698.198.498.797.998.598.899.9
24、99.699.299.6100.2101.4101.2100.6Non-OPEC oil supply59.459.460.060.759.961.162.163.464.162.763.663.965.065.264.4OPEC NGLs+NCONV5.65.55.55.45.55.55.55.55.65.55.65.65.65.65.6BNPP Call on OPEC crude 131.633.132.932.532.531.931.231.029.931.030.430.730.930.530.6Base case OPEC crude oil supply(assumptions
25、at 02/04/19)Algeria1.11.11.11.01.01.01.01.11.11.01.01.01.01.01.0Angola1.61.61.71.61.61.61.51.51.41.51.51.51.51.51.5Ecuador0.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.5Gabon0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.2Iraq4.54.54.54.54.54.54.54.64.74.64.74.64.64.74.7Iran3.83.83.83.83.83.83.83.63.03.6
26、2.72.62.52.42.6Kuwait&50%NZ2.72.72.72.72.72.72.72.82.82.72.72.72.72.82.7Libya0.70.70.91.00.81.00.90.91.11.01.01.01.01.01.0Nigeria1.41.51.61.61.51.71.51.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.6Saudi Arabia&50%NZ9.910.010.010.010.010.010.110.410.810.310.110.010.110.110.1United Arab Emirates3.02.92.92.92.92.82.93.03.33.
27、03.13.03.03.13.0Venezuela2.12.02.01.72.01.51.41.31.31.41.10.80.60.50.8Equitorial Guinea0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1Congo0.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.3OPEC crude oil supply 31.732.032.432.032.031.731.632.032.231.930.730.129.929.930.1Implied global stock change 20.1-1.2
28、-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.20.31.12.30.90.3-0.7-0.9-0.6-0.599.262.731.031.95.50.8940.00.51.01.50102030405060708090100DemandNon-OPECSupplyCall on OPECCrudeOPEC crudesupplyImplied stockchange(RHS)mb/dmb/d2018OPEC NGL supply100.664.430.630.15.6-0.491-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.50102030405060708090100DemandNon-OPECSupplyCal
29、l on OPECCrudeOPEC crudesupplyImplied stockchange(RHS)mb/dmb/d2019OPEC NGL supply-2.0-1.00.01.02.00910111213141516171819Implied global stock change(mb/d)Stock buildStock draw28303234360910111213141516171819BNPP OPEC CrudeCall on OPEC Crude&Stock Changemb/d|FOCUS 01/04/2019 4 OIL PRICE FORECASTS AND
30、OIL BALANCE COMMODITIES Chart 4:Crude oil and product price forecasts(monthly average)vs.forward curves*Source:Bloomberg,BNP Paribas forecast issued 05 February 2019 *historical data is daily,forward curve at the time of writing.New YorkNW EuropeSingapore2030405060708090Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 J
31、an-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionWTI(USD/bbl)2030405060708090Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionBrent(USD/bbl)2030405060708090Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionDubai(USD/bbl)50100150200250Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP Projectio
32、nRBOB(US/gal)300400500600700800900Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionEurobob(USD/t)50100150200250300Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionHeating Oil(US/gal)200300400500600700800Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionGasoil(USD/t
33、)2030405060708090100110Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionSingapore Gasoil(USD/bbl)30405060708090100Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Forward CurveBNP ProjectionSingapore Gasoline(USD/bbl)Legal Notice This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams with
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