1、/A2018280035007AMSCI 300 2019-06-24 A2019-05-27 CLI2019-02-26 S0550517050001(010)6321 0896 S0550118090018(010)5803 4575 2019-06-25 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 2/361.“”.3 1.1.3 1.2.5 1.3.6 2.8 2.1.8 2.2.10 2.2.1.10 2.2.2.11 2.3.13 2.4.“”.14 2.5.“+”.16 3.17 3.1.“”.17 3.2.21 3.3.2
2、3 3.4.24 4.28 4.1.7.28 4.2.30 4.3.31 4.4.MSCI.31 5.332 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 3/361.“”A430%46 20094300440.54%200920158-20%“”1 2 wind wind 1.1.41320184 13003425003800 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 4/36 34 wind 419 519 wind wind“”“”24A 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1
3、 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 5/36 6“”7“”1.2.14-15“”“”“”191834%34 8:6 wind 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 6/36 1.3.A20142015120152 9 wind 20082012 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 7/36 10 wind/0.40.2533005500 11 wind/2005 1.5%2009 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9
4、0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 8/36 12 13/09 wind wind 2.2.1.20162018201820195PMI502017 14PMI wind 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 9/36 15 16 wind European Commission 62.25%-2.50%“”6181750bp6251.25%5251.5%“”+“”17PMI CME 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 10/36“”200420079 18 wind 2.
5、2.2.2.1.58.1%55.6%2018201812.55%5-1.6%2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 11/36 19 wind 2015“”20 21 wind wind 2.2.2.GDP52.6%62 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 12/36 22 wind 2018103500500020191120%5-30%5000-6000 416%13%10%9%5 23 wind 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6
6、 2 6 1 1:4 6 13/36 2.3.5CPI2.7PPI50.6PPI 24CPI+PPI wind 510%2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 14/36 25 26 wind wind 2018 27 wind 2.4.“”M238.5%GDPM134.6%53.4%“”M1M2 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 15/36 28 wind 20185“”29 30 wind wind“”2015620156201762017650%“”2 1 2 8
7、 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 16/36 31 wind 2.5.“+”2012 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 17/36 201828003500“”3.3.1.“”“”5 32 Wind 511.3%7.4%7%6.6%6.5%20190605 800A 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 18/36 33 Wind 50.21%0.2%0.12%0.11%0.08%-0.21%-0.13%-0.13%
8、-0.1%-0.1%34 Wind 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 19/36 35 36 Wind Wind 37 38 Wind Wind 1254325107.74329110.93716MSCI53166138269 39 Wind 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 20/36765.2%750%15.2%512.6%12.1%11.5%9%8.7%800 40 Wind 34550.46%0.42%0.37%0.37%0.18%-1.8%-0.4%-0
9、.2%-0.13%-0.11%41 Wind 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 21/3620190430-20190612 42/Wind 3.2.GDP R20.830.670.650.59 43 44 Wind Wind 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 22/36 45 46 Wind Wind R20.34R20.16 47 48 Wind Wind R20 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4
10、6 23/36 49 50 Wind Wind 14GDPP0.1R2 3.3.“”1 PE EPS 19Q1 19Q1 300474.SZ 119.06 80.01 0.49 44%46%002049.SZ 263.72 71.73 0.61 30%42%000066.SZ 273.36 30.80 0.30 0%-66%000977.SZ 319.22 45.87 0.54 27%68%600536.SH 263.11 228.26 0.23 78%4%600588.SH 638.69 79.61 0.32 17%176%600797.SH 105.52 50.37 0.20 11%93%
11、603019.SH 360.48 78.60 0.51 53%123%000938.SZ 543.21 29.64 0.90 21%53%000063.SZ 1,248.12-187.78-0.17-19%116%002396.SZ 122.49 21.05 1.00-2%8%002281.SZ 182.46 57.22 0.47 1%-18%Wind 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 24/363MSCIAQFII/RQFIIAETF 3.4.“”“”80“”201811 2 1982“”105537 1983 1984 51
12、.565.4%;219.2%1985 12 410 1988 1992 15 2003“”16“”2005 2008 2010 2009-20152 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 25/36 2011 22 2016.6 2016-2020“”201620202030 2016.12“”2016.12 2018.6 (2018-2020)127 2020 2018.8(2018-2023)678S1420182023137950S1 .2018.11 2018.11 2018.12.18 2025 2019.1 “”2019.3
13、 2019.5.13 “”“”2019.6.3 3 Wind“”201719.523.8%201821.123.5%2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 26/36 512018GDP 52GDP Wind Wind/53 (2018-2020)630“”115GG60 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 27/36 3“”1 2 “”5G5G 3 “”4 17 5 G60 6 “”“”21 4 11 1 ()2 5G 5G5G5G5G 3 4 ,17 5 G60 G6
14、0G60G60“”6“+”7 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 28/36 8“+”9 “”“6+365”10 11 ()4.4.1.7 419107 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 29/36 5 20181031 2019419 .“”“”2018 “”“”“”2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 30/36 40 4.2.11613 6 11/5/2018 1/23/2019 1/28/2019
15、 1/30/2019 3/1/2019 4142 3/18/2019 3/21/2019 3/22/2019 9 4/1/2019 3 4/16/2019 4/23/2019 3 4/30/2019 5/27/2019 201916513 6/5/2019 201913“”6/13/2019 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 31/36 4.3.62062.25%-2.50%“”5122%36181750bp“”5420193 5520196 Wind Wind 4.4.MSCI MSCI2019AMSCI 20195A5%10
16、%10%A 20198A10%15%201911A15%20%A20%MSCI 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 32/36“”MSCI264A173A29AMSCI4%A MSCIA2.5%MSCI 30218 531A2.5%5%1418831 562018AMSCI MSCIA20189AA20196920203A25A5%15%25%52520196A1097A2924223767AMSCI264A 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 33/365.7 R2
17、 P R2 P 0.83 11.50 0.00 0.34-3.51 0.00 0.67 125.20 0.00 0.16-0.88 0.00 0.65 45.38 0.00 0.13-5.43 0.08 0.59 35.68 0.00 0.12-9.42 0.06 0.42 89.62 0.01 0.10 4.43 0.13 0.41 1.50 0.57 0.10 9.68 0.06 0.41 4.61 0.02 0.04 4.92 0.64 0.40 3.31 0.10 0.04-52.56 0.31 0.37 11.58 0.03 0.03 3.91 0.60 0.34 9.42 0.00
18、 0.03-15.64 0.29 0.31 3.38 0.01 0.03 35.89 0.24 0.28 18.82 0.00 0.03 10.29 0.05 0.27 18.57 0.11 0.02 1.50 0.96 0.23 2.61 0.37 0.02 1.17 0.93 0.23 11.41 0.04 0.02 4.07 0.69 0.22 2.80 0.28 0.02-1.11 0.62 0.22 5.68 0.01 0.02 12.31 0.49 0.22 11.37 0.01 0.02-2.65 0.17 0.19 13.77 0.20 0.02 0.41 0.06 0.19
19、15.59 0.02 0.01 7.88 0.87 0.19 5.13 0.01 0.01 2.77 0.85 0.18 2.11 0.20 0.01 5.47 0.80 0.17 22.68 0.00 0.01 3.71 0.50 0.16 24.93 0.05 0.01 0.72 0.47 0.15 6.13 0.05 0.01 22.33 0.40 0.14 28.93 0.25 0.01 2.61 0.36 0.14 8.70 0.09 0.01-18.80 0.15 0.13 17.09 0.15 0.01-1.01 0.07 0.13 13.27 0.07 0.00-1.38 0.
20、99 0.13 430.18 0.05 0.00 1.80 0.91 0.12 8.57 0.59 0.00-0.41 0.89 0.11 2.10 0.81 0.00 0.96 0.87 0.11 4.06 0.13 0.00-0.53 0.85 0.09 2.72 0.15 0.00-0.35 0.84 0.08 10.21 0.74 0.00 1.37 0.83 0.08 1.91 0.58 0.00-2.57 0.82 0.08 3.95 0.40 0.00 4.04 0.79 0.07 23.29 0.61 0.00 0.94 0.77 0.07 1.89 0.54 0.00-1.1
21、9 0.75 0.07 8.95 0.11 0.00-0.59 0.73 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 34/36 0.06 3.23 0.31 0.00-1.57 0.73 0.06 8.18 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.64 0.05 0.89 0.77 0.00-1.47 0.62 0.04 2.90 0.39 0.00-0.76 0.55 0.04 22.90 0.19 0.00-4.36 0.41 0.04 10.86 0.17 0.00 1.96 0.40 0.03 6.76 0.83 0.00 0.43
22、0.26 0.03 2.23 0.76 0.00 0.03 0.14 0.03 3.01 0.53 0.00 0.16 0.09 0.03 5.07 0.07 0.00-0.59 0.03 0.07-3.58 0.07 0.00 0.13 0.02 Wind 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 35/36 62016 AIG2018 “”R3ABAAABS “”615%65%15%6-5%5%65%15%615%6 6 6 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6 36/3
23、6 http:/400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 1224D 518000 021-20361121 13564972909 021-20361229 17717370432 021-20361258 18221628116 021-20361267 13956071185 chen_ 021-20361258 13120758587 L 021-20361121 18516562656 021-20361112 18801903156 010-58034553 18515018255 010-58034557 18501954588
24、 010-58034555 13701194494 010-58034563 18501944669 010-58034565 18601018177 010-58034561 18600646766 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_ 0755-33975865 15989508876 0755-33975865 13662669201 0755-33975865 18682251183 0755-33975865 18516772531 2 1 2 8 4 8 2 3/3 6 1 3 9/2 0 1 9 0 6 2 6 1 1:4 6扫码关注：金融干货精选获取更多干货资料
