1、Trina Chen+852-2978-2678|tri Goldman Sachs(Asi a)L.L.C.Joy Zhang+852-2978-6545|j Goldman Sachs(Asi a)L.L.C.Exhibit 1:Channel checks-downst ream orderbook t rend 8%15%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2017A-improving MoM2018A-improving MoM2019A-improving MoM2017A-declining MoM2018A-declining MoM201
2、9A-declining MoM2017*Data post Aug-2017 based on survey,Sour ce:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch(pr opr i etar y sur vey)Exhibit 2:Channel checks-orderbook survey by segment -Jan 2019 100%25%100%75%60%25%50%25%14%80%100%25%25%AutoWhitegoodsPropertyMachineryPowerSteelCementMetals fabCoalPa
3、perJanuary-2018(net)January-2019(net)Net orderbook trend in%of respondants Sour ce:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch(pr opr i etar y sur vey)21 January 2019|8:26PM HKTChina Basic Mat erials Monit or Januar y 2019:Seasonal weakness,di vi ded expectati onsSeasonal weakness,divided expect at
4、ions Our orderbook survey i n January suggests end demand remai ns weak,yet the sequenti al trend i ndi cates no further deteri orati on beyond seasonali ty at present.Whi le i t i s sti ll too early to get concrete i ndi cati ons,selected producers i n cement,steel,and machi nery are seei ng more l
5、ocal i nfrastructure proj ect approvals on the ground,and most expect normal seasonal demand pi ckups i n the comi ng constructi on season.On the other hand,the metals demand outlook remai ns depressed for the comi ng months,as reflected i n the earli er take off and longer CNY break planned at down
6、stream fabri cators.Channel checks Based on our propri etary survey,feedback from producers as of mi d-January 2019 suggests orderbooks were stable for downstream users but weakened for basi c materi als.I nventory i s mostly at or below normal levels for basi c materi als and most fini shed product
7、s.Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do busi ness wi th compani es covered i n i ts research reports.As a result,i nvestors should be aware that the firm may have a confli ct of i nterest that could affect the obj ecti vi ty of thi s report.I nvestors should consi der thi s report as only a si ngle fac
8、tor i n maki ng thei r i nvestment deci si on.For Reg AC certi ficati on and other i mportant di sclosures,see the Di sclosure Appendi x,or go to employed by non-US affili ates are not regi stered/quali fied as research analysts wi th FI NRA i n the U.S.Chi na basi c materi als coverage summary3 Com
9、modi ty pri ce deck4 Chi na Basi c Materi als Moni tor(January 2019):Seasonal weakness,di vi ded expectati ons5 Chi na downstream demand snapshots8 Chi na ai r quali ty tracki ng11 Steel:Full orderbooks,pri ci ng pressure persi sts13 Steel-maki ng raw materi als:Mi ldly restocked15 Coal:Seasonal des
10、tock 18 Cement:More aggressi ve pri ce cuts i n YZD21 Alumi num/Alumi na:More suspensi ons24 Copper:Longer CNY breaks26 Paper:Sli ght seasonal pi ck up29 Target pri ce methodologi es and ri sks32 Di sclosure Appendi x35 21 January 2019 2Goldman SachsChina Basic Materials MonitorTable of Contents Chi
11、na basic materials coverage summary Pr ices in t his r epor t ar e as of Januar y 18,2019,unless st at ed ot her wise.“Tar get”in Exhibit s 3,37,44,51,64 and 71 r efer s t o 12-mont h t ar get pr ices.Exhibit 3:China basic mat erials coverage summary CompanyTickerPrice Target Rating UpsideMkt capEPS
12、(ccy/sh)PEPBROEEV/EBITDAFCF yieldDiv yieldPerf.Price as of 18-Jan-2019TccyTccy%US$bn18E19E20E18E19E20E18E 19E 20E18E19E20E18E19E20E18E19E20E18E19E20EYTDAngang-H0347.HK5.758.5Buy*48%5.300.9750.7040.6655.17.07.50.70.60.613%9%8%3.94.44.316%17%17%5.9%4.3%4.0%6%Angang-A000898.SZ5.308.5Buy60%5.660.9750.70
13、40.6655.47.58.00.70.70.613%9%8%4.14.74.515%16%16%5.5%4.0%3.8%6%Baosteel600019.SS6.9310.0Buy44%22.800.9210.8360.8057.58.38.60.90.80.812%10%10%4.54.84.618%11%11%6.9%6.3%6.1%7%Maanshan-H 0323.HK3.673.3 Neutral-10%3.600.8090.3650.3223.98.79.80.90.80.824%10%8%2.83.83.820%11%12%7.7%3.5%3.0%6%Maanshan-A 60
14、0808.SS3.643.5 Neutral-4%4.140.8090.3650.3224.5 10.011.31.00.90.924%10%8%3.04.24.218%10%11%6.7%3.0%2.7%5%Chinacoal-H 1898.HK3.295.1Buy55%5.560.4050.4520.4577.06.36.20.40.40.46%6%6%6.66.36.02%6%17%3.6%4.0%4.0%7%Chinacoal-A 601898.SS4.846.0 Neutral24%9.480.4050.4520.45711.9 10.710.60.70.70.66%6%6%8.07
15、.67.21%4%12%2.1%2.3%2.4%4%Yanzhou-H1171.HK7.119.3Buy31%4.451.7961.7691.1923.43.55.10.60.50.517%15%10%4.34.45.711%12%8%9.4%9.2%6.2%13%Yanzhou-A600188.SS9.1211.5Buy26%6.621.7961.7691.1925.15.27.60.80.70.717%15%10%4.95.06.59%10%7%6.3%6.2%4.2%4%Conch-H0914.HK39.5534.0Sell-14%26.725.6952.8592.9256.0 11.9
16、11.71.61.61.430%13%13%3.46.27.513%7%6%6.9%3.5%3.5%4%Conch-A600585.SS31.0532.0 Neutral3%24.315.6952.8592.9255.5 10.910.61.51.41.330%13%13%3.15.66.814%8%7%7.6%3.8%3.9%6%BBMG-H2009.HK2.542.8 Neutral10%3.460.4450.3020.2804.97.37.80.40.40.49%6%5%7.68.78.714%19%16%3.7%2.5%2.3%3%BBMG-A601992.SS3.583.4 Neut
17、ral-5%5.650.4450.3020.2808.0 11.912.80.70.70.69%6%5%8.69.99.910%15%12%2.2%1.5%1.4%2%CNBM3323.HK5.806.9 Neutral19%6.241.3350.6390.6233.87.88.00.60.60.620%8%7%6.18.38.5-5%-7%0%7.0%3.3%3.3%8%CRC1313.HK7.286.0Sell-18%6.481.2800.6070.6145.7 12.011.91.21.21.224%10%10%3.56.46.021%9%12%8.6%4.1%4.1%3%WCC2233
18、.HK1.091.2 Neutral10%0.750.2730.1390.1363.46.86.90.60.60.620%9%9%2.33.22.726%22%24%2.8%8.7%5.9%3%Chalco-H2600.HK2.843.2 Neutral13%6.160.075-0.0480.14432.6n.a.17.10.80.80.83%-2%5%9.620.411.42%-2%3%0.0%0.0%0.0%13%Chalco-A601600.SS3.683.6 Neutral-2%9.250.075-0.0480.14449.0n.a.25.61.21.21.13%-2%5%11.223
19、.713.22%-2%2%0.0%0.0%0.0%4%Hongqiao1378.HK5.075.1 Neutral1%5.670.4690.4250.5669.3 10.37.70.70.60.67%6%8%4.54.63.831%21%24%2.8%2.6%3.4%14%JXC-H0358.HK9.4610.0 Neutral6%4.180.7470.5810.48910.9 14.016.70.60.60.65%4%3%5.16.06.10%-5%5%3.8%3.0%2.5%3%JXC-A600362.SS13.6110.6Sell-22%6.960.7470.5810.48918.2 2
20、3.427.81.00.90.95%4%3%8.09.29.30%-3%3%2.3%1.8%1.5%3%MMG1208.HK3.565.8Buy63%3.630.0350.0610.06813.17.56.62.41.81.420%28%24%6.55.24.517%20%20%0.0%0.0%0.0%6%Chinamoly-H 3993.HK3.043.7 Neutral22%8.370.2530.2200.22610.4 11.911.61.31.31.214%11%11%4.54.23.913%14%13%5.8%5.0%5.2%6%Chinamoly-A 603993.SS3.925.
21、6 Neutral43%12.510.2530.2200.22615.5 17.817.42.01.91.914%11%11%6.56.26.09%10%9%3.9%3.4%3.5%4%Zijin-H2899.HK2.743.8Buy39%8.050.1820.1860.19813.0 12.711.91.51.41.312%11%11%6.05.56.210%8%8%3.9%3.9%4.2%-8%Zijin-A601899.SS3.034.8Buy58%10.310.1820.1860.19816.6 16.315.31.91.81.712%11%11%7.36.77.48%7%7%3.0%
22、3.1%3.3%-9%Zhaojin1818.HK7.524.7Sell-38%2.970.1140.0800.13156.8 81.049.51.61.51.53%2%3%18.820.516.7-3%-3%-3%0.5%0.4%0.6%-5%Lee&Man2314.HK6.757.5 Neutral11%3.891.1460.8310.8245.98.18.21.21.11.022%14%13%5.66.96.55%9%13%5.6%4.1%4.0%2%NDPaper2689.HK7.686.3Sell-18%4.571.0000.5700.4596.6 11.614.50.80.80.8
23、13%7%5%6.89.39.5-5%4%10%4.5%2.6%2.1%6%Chenming-H 1812.HK4.643.9Sell-16%1.151.1140.4870.3873.68.210.40.30.30.28%3%2%7.48.68.84%-11%-3%9.8%4.3%3.4%4%Chenming-A 000488.SZ5.955.1Sell-14%1.151.1140.4870.3875.3 12.215.40.40.40.48%3%2%7.99.29.43%-8%-2%6.6%2.9%2.3%6%Shanying600567.SS3.313.3 Neutral0%2.230.5
24、980.3000.2455.5 11.013.51.21.21.124%11%8%6.68.89.8-1%4%5%5.4%2.7%2.2%6%Sunpaper002078.SZ6.076.2 Neutral2%2.320.8190.5340.4647.4 11.413.11.31.21.119%11%9%4.86.16.0-1%0%11%1.7%1.1%1.0%6%Sour ce:Company data,Datastr eam,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch.Note:*denotes stock i s on our r egi on
25、al Convi cti on Li st.Tar get pr i ces ar e based on a 12-month ti mef r ame.21 January 2019 3Goldman SachsChina Basic Materials MonitorCommodity price deck Exhibit 4:Benchmark commodit y price forecast s global and China Spot prices updated as of January 16,2019 Sour ce:Bl oomber g,Gol dman Sachs G
26、l obal Investment Resear ch21 January 2019 4Goldman SachsChina Basic Materials MonitorChina Basic Materials Monitor(January 2019):Seasonal weakness,divided expectations Our monthly Chi na Basi c Materi als Moni tor i ncorporates our propri etary survey of over 50 i ndustry contacts to track:1)forwar
27、d orderbook trends;and 2)i nventory levels at producers and end-users.The survey i ncludes aggregated comments from producers and manufacturers i n downstream sectors such as auto,appli ance,machi nery and property developers as well as steel mi lls,cement producers,metal fabri cators,contai ner boa
28、rd producers and box makers,and i ndustry associ ati ons.Our orderbook survey i n January suggests end demand remai ns weak,yet the sequenti al trend i ndi cates no further deteri orati on beyond seasonali ty at present.Whi le i t i s sti ll too early to get concrete i ndi cati ons,selected producer
29、s i n cement,steel,and machi nery are seei ng more local i nfrastructure proj ects approvals on the ground,and most expect normal seasonal demand pi ckups i n the comi ng constructi on season.On the other hand,the metals demand outlook remai ns depressed for the comi ng months,as reflected i n the e
30、arli er take off and longer CNY break planned at downstream fabri cators.Steel remai ns our most preferred sector,followed by coal,both of whi ch are more attracti ve i n terms of the equi ty ri sk/reward profile wi thi n our coverage,followed by cement,alumi num,based on the i ndustry supply/demand
31、 outlook.Among the Hong Kong li sted names,our top pi cks are Angang-H(on CL)and Yanzhou-H(Buy),based on the upsi de to our target pri ces,ri sk adj usted.We are most cauti ous on Chi nese paper,and have Sell rati ngs on ND Paper and Chenmi ng-A and Chenmi ng-H.Among A-share li sted names,our top pi
32、 ck i s Baosteel(Buy),followed by Yanzhou-A(Buy)based on ri sk-adj usted upsi de to our target pri ces.On a relati ve basi s,we li ke Angang-H due to i ts hi gher earni ngs vi si bi li ty,combi ned wi th our preference for flat products(Angangs mai n product).We li ke Baosteel due to i ts hi gher ea
33、rni ngs vi si bi li ty,strong cash flow generati on,and hi gher di vi dend payout.Channel checks forward orderbook t rend Feedback from producers as of mi d-January 2019 suggests that orderbooks were stable for end-demand and basi c materi als weakened month on month.Reali sed sales trends i n Decem
34、ber 2018 were mostly i nli ne wi th producers expectati ons nThe month-on-month end-user forward orderbook trend i s stable,wi th 8%of respondents expecti ng a month-on-month ni mprovement i n January versus 8%i n December,and 15%of respondents expect a month-on-month decli ne i n January versus 17%
35、December.The trend i s mostly i nli ne wi th past seasonali ty.21 January 2019 5Goldman SachsChina Basic Materials MonitorOur orderbook survey i n January suggest end demand remai ns weak,yet the sequenti al trend i ndi cates no further deteri orati on beyond seasonali ty at presentFeedback from pro
36、ducers as of mi d-January 2019 suggests that orderbooks were stable for end-demand and weakened for basi c materi als month on month.The orderbook trend for basi c materi als softened,mostly i nli ne wi th past seasonali ty.6%of respondents expect a nmonth-on-month i mprovement i n orderbooks i n Ja
37、nuary(versus 21%i n December)and 39%expect a decli ne(versus 21%i n December).Speci fically,the percentage of respondents expecti ng orderbook i mprovement was 25%for coal(versus ni l i n December),29%for steel(versus ni l i n December),ni l for cement(versus 20%i n December),ni l for base metal fab
38、ri cators and traders(versus 17%i n December),and ni l for contai nerboard paper(vs.ni l i n December)Channel checks-invent ory levels at producers and end-users Our i nventory checks i nclude both raw materi als and end-product i nventory held at producers through the value chai n(excludi ng exchan
39、ge and soci al i nventory).Feedback i s centered on the relati ve posi ti on of the current i nventory versus the normal level(seasonally adj usted),and the di recti on of i nventory changes at the ti me of the survey.Our i nventory survey as of mi d-January 2019 suggests i nventory at producers i s
40、 at a normal level for coal/alumi na/OCC,above normal for i ron ore/hard coki ng coal/Al and most fini shed products,and below normal for steel/copper/paper/cement.I nventory for fini shed steel i s below the normal level(net 14%of respondents are seei ng below the normal level)and nmovi ng down;i r
41、on ore and coki ng coal are above the normal level(net 50%of respondents are seei ng above the normal level)and movi ng up.I nventory for alumi num i s above the normal level(net 38%of respondents are seei ng above the normal level)and nmovi ng up.I nventory of alumi na i s at the normal level and m
42、ostly stable.I nventory for copper i s below the normal level(net 21%of respondents are seei ng below-normal i nventory)and mostly nstable.I nventory for cement i s below the normal level(net 80%of respondents are seei ng below-normal i nventory)and movi ng ndown.I nventory for contai nerboard i s b
43、elow the normal level(net 38%of respondents are seei ng below-normal i nventory)and nmovi ng down.I nventory of old corrugated contai ners(OCC)i s at the normal level and remai ns stable.I nventory for coal i s at the normal level and movi ng down nI nventory for overall downstream products i s abov
44、e the normal level(net 6%of respondents are seei ng above-normal ni nventory)and mostly stable.21 January 2019 6Goldman SachsChina Basic Materials MonitorOur i nventory survey as of mi d-January 2019 suggests i nventory at producers i s at a normal level for coal/alumi na/OCC,above normal for i ron
45、ore/hard coki ng coal/Al and most fini shed products,and below normal for steel/copper/paper/cement Exhibit 5:Channel checks downst ream sect ors orderbook t rend Exhibit 6:Channel checks basic mat erials orderbook t rend 8%15%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2017A-improving MoM2018A-improving Mo
46、M2019A-improving MoM2017A-declining MoM2018A-declining MoM2019A-declining MoM2017*Data post Aug-2017 based on survey,Prior data back estimated from China PMI 6%39%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2017A-improving MoM2018A-improving MoM2019A-improving MoM2017A-declining MoM2018A-declining MoM2019A-
47、declining MoM2017*Data post Aug-2017 based on survey,Prior data back estimated from China PMI Sour ce:Company data,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch Sour ce:Company data,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch Exhibit 7:Channel checks-net invent ory levels and changes(st ocks at produc
48、ers and downst ream users only)Exhibit 8:Channel checks orderbook survey by segment -200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%IO/HCCCoalSteelAluminaAlCuOCCPaperCementFin prodJan-19Dec-18Inventory level versus normal,and direction of changes at the time of survey(net of%of respondents)-January 2019 Normal inventor
49、y Above normal Below normal 100%25%100%75%60%25%50%25%14%-80%100%25%25%-100%-50%0%50%100%AutoWhitegoodsPropertyMachineryPowerSteelCementMetals fabCoalPaperJanuary-2018(net)January-2019(net)Net orderbook trend in%of respondants -January(%)Sour ce:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch(pr opr i e
50、tar y sur vey)Sour ce:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch(pr opr i etar y sur vey)21 January 2019 7Goldman SachsChina Basic Materials MonitorChina downstream demand snapshots Exhibit 9:FAI-infrast ruct ure(ex wat er/power supply)rose 3.7%in 11M18 and 3.7%in Nov.2018 Exhibit 10:PPP project s-
