1、北上资金大幅流入，周期行业综合得分北上资金大幅流入，周期行业综合得分靠前靠前行业比较数据跟踪20210221请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明仅供机构投资者使用仅供机构投资者使用证券研究报告证券研究报告|金融工程报告金融工程报告曹春晓 SAC NO：S1120520070003杨国平 SAC NO：S11205200700022021年02月21日 1276102（一）行业基本面与估值（一）行业基本面与估值（二）行业资金流动（二）行业资金流动（三）行业综合打分（三）行业综合打分风险提示风险提示目录 qNmQoMvNzR9P8QbRoMmMmOnMlOrRt
2、RjMmOtR9PpOsNxNqQmPuOtPsQ截至2021年2月19日，全部A股PE（TTM）为24.49倍，位于2009年以来89.97%分位数；PB_LF 2.05倍，位于2009年以来61.69%分位数。截至2021年2月19日，主板/创业板/科创板PE（TTM）分别为18.51倍、106.09倍、96.02倍，位于2009年以来83.05%、84.80%、59.90%分位数；PB_LF分别为1.61倍、5.98倍、7.06倍，位于2009年以来43.10%、81.49%、51.05%分位数。3各各板块板块估值分位数均小幅估值分位数均小幅回升回升1.1 1.1 主要板块估值分位数小幅
3、回升主要板块估值分位数小幅回升资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所全部A股24.4938.2511.5118.1389.97%全部A股(非金融石油石化)41.9676.9916.8029.3283.25%主板18.5137.709.7515.4483.05%中小企业板54.5196.7521.9142.1586.85%创业板106.09204.6628.1062.9684.80%创业板(剔除温氏股份)112.13218.1128.1064.9084.14%科创板96.02172.0748.1986.7059.90%全部A股2.053.861.341.9561.69%全部A股(非金融石油石化)3.
4、135.561.752.7575.62%主板1.613.811.191.6643.10%中小企业板3.628.122.093.5552.12%创业板5.9813.952.204.4581.49%创业板(剔除温氏股份)6.0713.952.204.4683.05%科创板7.0612.944.977.0451.05%主要板块对比2021/2/19最大值最小值中位数当前估值所处历史的百分位PE_TTM估值箱型图估值PE(TTM)估值PB_LF 截至2021年2月19日，主要指数中，上证50、沪深300、深证100、创业板指PE（TTM）分别为14.93倍、17.41倍、37.75倍和71.05倍，分
5、别位于历史90.27%、89.97%、92.17%和90.56%分位数，PB_LF分别为1.63倍、1.91倍、5.41倍和8.96倍，位于历史68.40%、72.61%、99.90%和94.98%分位数。1.2 1.2 中中证证500500估值仍位于估值仍位于历史相对较低水平历史相对较低水平中中证证500500指数指数估值估值处于处于历史相对较低水平历史相对较低水平资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所上证综指16.9134.508.9014.2082.13%上证5014.9327.596.9410.2290.27%上证18014.5630.037.1211.1384.98%沪深30017.41
6、31.918.0112.6389.97%中证50029.5992.7516.0031.6439.24%中证100042.24144.8218.9448.5338.17%深证10037.7564.5712.8821.6492.17%深证成指35.3063.4712.1723.2689.09%中小板指39.2364.6118.5331.3990.51%创业板指71.05137.8627.0451.9690.56%创业板5084.69141.8427.2654.3591.46%万得全A24.4738.2411.5118.1389.97%上证综指1.633.851.211.6152.16%上证501.
7、633.731.021.3568.40%上证1801.533.821.091.4161.59%沪深3001.913.901.171.6072.61%中证5002.135.891.512.5422.93%中证10002.678.141.712.9539.79%深证1005.415.561.812.8599.90%深证成指4.005.751.702.9393.73%中小板指5.307.692.544.0385.32%创业板指8.9615.012.514.8594.98%创业板5010.5216.233.245.9395.27%万得全A2.133.961.402.0167.01%最大值最小值中位数当
8、前估值所处历史的百分位估值箱型图估值PE(TTM)估值PB_LF主要指数对比2021/2/19 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所创业板指创业板指/沪深沪深300300相对相对PEPE位于位于历史历史48.26%48.26%分位数分位数截至2021年2月19日，创业板指相对于沪深300指数相对PE（TTM）4.08倍，位于历史48.26%分位数，相对PB_LF为4.70倍，位于历史85.53%分位数。资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所创业板指创业板指/沪深沪深300300相对相对PBPB位于位于历史历史85.53%85.53%分位数分位数1.3 1.3 创业板指创业板指/沪深沪深300300相
9、对相对PEPE小幅回落小幅回落5 6资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所申万一级行业估值与历史分位数申万一级行业估值与历史分位数1.4 1.4 食品饮料、休闲服务等食品饮料、休闲服务等行业估值行业估值水平位于历史高位水平位于历史高位2021/2/19最大值最小值中位数当前估值所处历史的百分位2021/2/19最大值最小值中位数农林牧渔19.07119.6414.9543.424.42%4.227.372.333.69采掘17.1588.0110.3917.9642.93%1.155.840.901.72化工37.0676.5513.0127.5278.25%3.075.301.532.53钢铁1
10、5.67153.735.3423.6929.97%1.062.790.721.30有色金属57.76140.3112.9945.5365.50%3.277.181.693.14电子51.57118.1022.7450.5052.43%4.406.941.653.53家用电器28.5632.3110.5516.9794.92%4.204.851.773.09食品饮料61.1862.9616.5530.5899.97%12.3012.663.005.39纺织服装35.8263.1415.4129.0172.25%1.776.231.502.38轻工制造28.66113.2914.2335.9230
11、.48%2.186.391.452.38医药生物48.5574.3723.4938.5791.32%5.088.352.564.29公用事业18.0774.3813.7823.3812.02%1.364.541.262.11交通运输26.6143.299.9519.5487.96%1.573.971.091.74房地产8.4250.877.8815.901.57%1.124.701.051.98商业贸易26.2971.3813.1227.5846.43%1.375.511.272.37休闲服务204.99209.6924.9246.3099.94%9.589.802.073.81综合36.75
12、120.5520.7145.8235.50%2.147.751.122.97建筑材料16.0950.699.9824.2126.91%2.384.391.502.25建筑装饰8.5450.117.8815.100.75%0.853.930.781.69电气设备53.0099.9920.3239.9793.52%4.757.421.463.16国防军工68.19245.8224.1362.6160.17%3.358.381.853.25计算机70.10159.7029.4852.0283.89%4.1815.762.364.25传媒38.50141.8419.4946.6733.90%2.631
13、1.481.703.84通信35.8395.069.2340.9421.15%2.256.601.322.68银行8.2919.264.506.8279.03%0.813.480.641.02非银金融16.8266.4910.8018.4729.36%1.885.491.431.99汽车35.0450.289.8018.2192.34%2.574.451.352.31机械设备32.58136.0712.8130.3059.39%2.886.211.602.7056.67%46.19%18.08%20.93%14.42%31.20%66.54%73.76%11.84%80.27%36.36%57
14、.31%54.13%40.32%79.29%3.60%44.49%0.82%2.34%99.94%21.91%56.23%1.02%78.10%11.16%申万一级行业对比PE（TTM）PB_LF当前估值所处历史的百分位85.29%98.00%99.97%7申万一级行业盈利增速与申万一级行业盈利增速与ROEROE水平水平资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所1.5 1.5 20Q320Q3通信通信、综合、电气设备归母净利润增速达到历史高位、综合、电气设备归母净利润增速达到历史高位2020/9/30最大值最小值中位数当前利润增速所处历史的百分位2020/9/30最大值最小值中位数农林牧渔209.2%
15、498.3%-57.0%17.6%89.59%19.78%20.47%3.07%6.78%采掘-26.1%20523.6%-101.1%2.2%39.59%4.86%15.83%-0.05%9.05%化工-2.3%192.3%-60.8%9.1%39.59%6.84%13.98%3.51%8.49%钢铁-20.8%1308.8%-3139.1%-20.7%50.00%6.92%16.86%-12.61%3.38%有色金属2.0%1866.6%-124.6%4.6%50.00%1.85%12.15%-3.40%3.76%电子48.7%779.8%-305.9%35.2%64.59%8.20%10
16、.48%-7.31%6.29%家用电器-10.2%158.9%-19.2%24.1%12.50%13.10%19.41%7.71%15.70%食品饮料9.3%116.3%-12.7%20.0%33.34%19.52%24.25%10.98%18.40%纺织服装-25.6%126.7%-59.4%-0.5%25.00%2.82%13.30%2.41%8.47%轻工制造55.3%293.3%-70.4%29.2%75.00%6.28%10.67%2.70%6.02%医药生物16.1%88.0%-10.9%21.3%35.42%8.65%14.37%7.02%11.24%公用事业17.7%7228.
17、3%-104.6%15.0%58.34%7.27%13.44%-0.53%8.07%交通运输-64.8%1415.3%-117.5%5.3%10.42%2.49%14.06%-3.21%7.92%房地产-2.1%82.8%-2.1%15.5%2.09%11.78%14.70%9.24%12.66%商业贸易-60.7%93.8%-60.7%3.7%2.09%3.39%12.72%3.39%8.56%休闲服务-93.5%90.8%-93.5%19.2%2.09%0.64%10.71%0.64%8.40%综合212.9%212.9%-82.2%2.4%100.00%5.18%12.77%1.66%5
18、.36%建筑材料10.2%150.4%-47.0%33.3%37.50%15.05%17.86%4.32%10.91%建筑装饰3.6%261.0%-10.5%14.8%18.75%9.19%13.03%6.01%10.76%电气设备119.4%184.8%-43.6%25.9%95.84%6.89%15.06%2.94%6.68%国防军工43.9%1236.6%-225.5%3.1%75.00%3.53%17.24%-1.90%3.35%计算机-45.7%113.4%-53.9%17.3%6.25%2.15%11.52%1.63%9.33%传媒69.2%129.1%-180.2%34.5%87
19、.50%-1.44%12.09%-5.09%9.68%通信5507.1%5507.1%-276.4%14.1%100.00%2.21%21.32%-3.07%5.67%银行-1.4%67.2%-3.6%8.9%6.25%9.69%19.98%9.69%16.49%非银金融-1.6%330.4%-71.1%10.9%35.42%9.84%15.93%5.52%10.14%汽车1.3%525.1%-69.1%11.2%33.34%5.42%20.70%4.08%12.49%机械设备29.3%143.1%-38.9%6.1%70.84%6.09%14.26%3.15%6.54%22.92%2.09%
20、43.75%10.42%39.59%56.25%12.50%37.50%8.34%27.09%2.09%2.09%47.92%77.09%14.59%58.34%54.17%4.17%8.34%申万一级行业对比归母净利润(TTM)同比增速ROE(TTM)当前ROE所处历史的百分位97.92%27.09%31.25%72.92%29.17%91.67%12.50%68.75%6.25%8申万一级行业市值集中度、强势股占比与申万一级行业市值集中度、强势股占比与MAMA多头排列打分多头排列打分资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所1.6 1.6 化工、钢铁、有色金属等化工、钢铁、有色金属等行业行业MAM
21、A多头排列得分较高多头排列得分较高农林牧渔228012531361515351.96%38.20%34.83%14.39%0.93采掘211393201776227366.67%44.62%60.00%13.50%0.87化工558791444224810952.47%49.10%46.51%35.11%1.00钢铁8559238651418131.58%47.22%63.89%15.90%1.00有色金属258291992164716539.92%45.38%50.00%43.73%1.00电子724332374950116249.53%24.92%27.87%10.91%0.80家用电器1
22、97712911756725876.29%28.36%40.30%20.41%0.93食品饮料848927517929270277.01%34.51%53.98%46.54%1.00纺织服装49705534313826.60%25.27%23.08%-7.61%0.13轻工制造132139196716741.21%39.58%39.58%15.16%1.00医药生物877092406112816747.90%33.15%24.38%17.25%0.93公用事业244501321979310846.70%17.39%25.54%-1.32%0.27交通运输296302472334919546.0
23、0%36.13%33.61%8.04%0.73房地产202041571814214246.85%19.53%16.41%-5.45%0.20商业贸易80698264466633.18%14.29%24.49%-11.32%0.13休闲服务9817258940125482.75%64.86%37.84%68.75%1.00综合23096418375137.46%30.56%22.22%2.82%0.53建筑材料12146169904812649.02%44.44%34.72%13.05%0.93建筑装饰14207104118768752.59%26.47%20.59%-4.71%0.13电气设备
24、457212043420915363.43%25.45%34.82%48.16%0.93国防军工168712061300115738.02%10.98%39.02%10.65%0.53计算机32211123235199040.91%16.09%11.11%-8.08%0.13传媒19010111142448339.70%27.49%16.37%-2.60%0.27通信109769986467746.47%10.00%8.18%-15.50%0.13银行114361300974042194834.52%81.58%71.05%20.09%1.00非银金融765158795016057749.78
25、%12.64%18.39%4.09%0.53汽车348181792371412258.44%25.00%40.10%29.77%1.00机械设备3708690267516551.73%24.39%27.56%20.63%1.00市值集中度申万一级行业对比总市值(亿元)平均总市值(亿元)流通市值(亿元)平均流通市值(亿元)MA60强势股占比MA240强势股占比当前点位距离年线位置MA多头排列打分 9（一）行业基本面与估值（一）行业基本面与估值（二）行业资金流动（二）行业资金流动（三）行业综合打分（三）行业综合打分风险提示风险提示目录 10资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所IPOIPO融资数量与规
26、模（亿元）融资数量与规模（亿元）上周无新股IPO发行，5家公司再融资发行规模合计2亿元。资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所再融资公司数量与募集规模（亿元）再融资公司数量与募集规模（亿元）2.1 2.1 上周上周5 5家公司再融资发行规模合计家公司再融资发行规模合计2 2亿元亿元 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所限售股解禁周度规模统计（亿元）限售股解禁周度规模统计（亿元）下周全市场限售股解禁规模预计1027.6亿元，其中，解禁规模较大的行业为机械设备、非银金融、通信等，预计解禁规模321亿元、243亿元、161亿元。资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所下周各行业估算解禁规模（亿元）下周各行业估算
27、解禁规模（亿元）2.2 2.2 下周机械设备、非银金融等下周机械设备、非银金融等行业解禁规模相对较大行业解禁规模相对较大11 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所大股东增减持周度规模统计（全市场，亿元）大股东增减持周度规模统计（全市场，亿元）上周，全市场大股东整体净减持31.2亿元，其中，传媒、电气设备、有色金属等行业减持金额较多，分别为6亿、5亿、3亿元。资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所上周各行业大股东增减持规模（亿元）上周各行业大股东增减持规模（亿元）2.3 2.3 大股东净减大股东净减持持31.231.2亿，传媒、电气设备、有色金属等行业居多亿，传媒、电气设备、有色金属等行业居多12 资
28、料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所全市场融资余额总量（亿元）全市场融资余额总量（亿元）截至2021年2月18日，两市融资余额1.52万亿元，占A股流通市值比例2.25%，其中非银金融、电子、医药生物等行业融资余额较多，分别为1540亿、1364亿、1327亿元。资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所各行业融资余额总量（亿元）各行业融资余额总量（亿元）2.4 2.4 两市融资余额为两市融资余额为1.521.52万亿万亿，占，占A A股流通市值股流通市值2.25%2.25%13 上周，融资余额增加较多的行业包括电子、医药生物、有色金属等，分别增加29亿、26亿和25亿元，环比变动幅度分别为2.2%、2.
29、0%和3.8%。2.5 2.5 电子电子、医药生物、有色金属等行业融资、医药生物、有色金属等行业融资余额增加明显余额增加明显资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所各行业周度融资余额环比变动金额（亿元）及幅度各行业周度融资余额环比变动金额（亿元）及幅度14 上周，北上资金净流入146亿元。其中，北上资金在医药生物、银行、电气设备等行业净流入较多，分别流入29.1亿元、28.1亿元和24.9亿元。2.6 2.6 北上资金净北上资金净流入流入146146亿，医药生物、银行、电气设备等亿，医药生物、银行、电气设备等行业流入较多行业流入较多资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所上周北上资金在各行业上流入流出规模
30、估算（亿元）上周北上资金在各行业上流入流出规模估算（亿元）15 上周，权益类基金成立规模合计为15亿元。2.7 2.7 上周权益基金上周权益基金成立成立1515亿元亿元资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所上周，权益类基金成立规模合计上周，权益类基金成立规模合计为为1515亿亿元元16 17（一）行业基本面与估值（一）行业基本面与估值（二）行业资金流动（二）行业资金流动（三）行业综合打分（三）行业综合打分风险提示风险提示目录 18估值业绩资金流动成长空间估值与业绩匹配度PE_TTM历史分位数PB_LF历史分位数净利润_TTM环比增速ROE_TTM环比增速一致预期PEG北向资金行业龙头股一致预期目标
31、价空间加权求和3.1 3.1 结合五维度信息对行业进行比较打分结合五维度信息对行业进行比较打分我们综合考虑各行业的估值水平、业绩增速、估值与业绩匹配度、目标价空间、资金流动等五个维度对行业进行评价。各维度权重如下：估值得分*0.05+业绩增速得分*0.25+估值与业绩匹配度得分*0.3+成长空间得分*0.2+资金流向得分*0.2资料来源：华西证券研究所结合五维度信息对行业进行比较打分结合五维度信息对行业进行比较打分 193.2 3.2 当前有色金属、建筑装饰、房地产等当前有色金属、建筑装饰、房地产等行业性价比相对较高行业性价比相对较高资料来源：Wind，朝阳永续，华西证券研究所估值与业绩匹配度
32、龙头股目标价空间行业PE分位数PB分位数ROE_TTM环比变动净利润_TTM环比增速PEG目标价空间北上资金环比上周变化有色金属65.50%57.31%0.50%41.88%0.4218.75%4.55%39.2985.7196.4350.00100.0082.321建筑装饰0.75%1.02%0.17%5.35%0.5651.61%3.34%98.2133.9385.7196.4389.2976.252房地产1.57%0.82%-0.20%0.58%0.4128.74%2.49%98.2123.21100.0075.0075.0070.713化工78.25%80.27%1.78%43.54%
33、0.6124.76%-0.48%26.79100.0078.5767.8617.8667.054农林牧渔4.42%73.76%-0.69%27.64%0.489.74%4.34%60.7151.7992.8617.8696.4366.705采掘42.93%11.84%1.25%37.45%1.6019.57%2.87%71.4394.6435.7153.5785.7165.806纺织服装72.25%11.16%0.33%20.87%0.6416.84%1.97%62.5064.2975.0042.8671.4364.557公用事业12.02%3.60%0.47%14.21%0.6117.25%
34、0.89%89.2964.2982.1446.4350.0064.468电气设备93.52%78.10%0.87%23.41%0.7515.49%1.13%19.6489.2967.8635.7153.5761.529计算机83.89%46.19%-0.12%0.28%0.7031.55%1.76%39.2923.2171.4378.5764.2957.7710机械设备59.39%56.67%0.53%14.21%0.5412.92%0.12%44.6467.8689.2925.0032.1457.4111综合35.50%21.91%0.74%21.24%3.85134.63%0.65%66.
35、0782.1417.86100.0039.2957.0512非银金融29.36%31.20%0.49%10.47%1.4533.33%0.66%71.4362.5039.2982.1442.8655.9813电子52.43%85.29%0.44%9.28%0.7734.68%-1.09%33.9357.1464.2989.2910.7155.2714汽车92.34%66.54%0.83%21.26%0.9020.08%-1.07%25.0085.7157.1457.1414.2954.1115钢铁29.97%36.36%0.31%8.21%1.4013.53%3.42%67.8646.4346
36、.4328.5792.8653.2116通信21.15%20.93%0.11%7.70%5.0033.51%2.53%78.5737.5012.5085.7178.5749.9117传媒33.90%18.08%0.40%19.89%5.0015.66%2.77%71.4366.0712.5039.2982.1448.1318医药生物91.32%79.29%0.59%16.63%0.87-0.22%0.88%21.4373.2160.713.5746.4347.5919银行79.03%14.42%-0.38%-1.05%2.9235.05%1.52%55.3617.8628.5792.8660.
37、7146.5220轻工制造30.48%40.32%0.26%8.88%0.958.33%1.79%64.2944.6450.0014.2967.8645.8021国防军工60.17%54.13%0.35%17.53%1.4123.86%-4.29%46.4362.5042.8664.293.5744.3822家用电器94.92%98.00%0.27%7.08%2.0623.14%0.51%10.7141.0732.1460.7135.7139.7323建筑材料26.91%56.23%-0.05%6.90%0.9314.79%-0.05%62.5032.1453.5732.1428.5739.3
38、824商业贸易46.43%2.34%-1.55%-30.15%3.1226.90%1.50%75.005.3625.0071.4357.1438.3025食品饮料99.97%99.97%-0.61%4.65%3.335.07%-0.14%3.5721.4321.4310.7125.0019.1126交通运输87.96%44.49%-0.75%-20.59%10.6812.64%-1.60%39.2910.713.5721.437.1411.4327休闲服务99.94%99.94%-0.91%-56.19%7.77-0.09%-0.28%7.145.367.147.1421.439.5528行业排名估值业绩增速资金流估值得分业绩增速得分估值与业绩匹配度得分龙头股目标价得分资金流得分综合得分 20（一）行业基本面与估值（一）行业基本面与估值（二）行业资金流动（二）行业资金流动（三）行业综合打分（三）行业综合打分风险提示风险提示目录 市场出现超预期波动风险。21风险提示风险提示 22华西证券研究所：华西证券研究所：地址：北京市西城区太平桥大街丰汇园11号丰汇时代大厦南座5层网址：http:/
