1、 Please refer to page 28 for important disclosures and analyst certification,or on our website January 2019 United States EQUITIES Source:Factset,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Top 10 Projected Movies for 2019 Source:HSX,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Source:BO Mojo,Macquarie Capital(USA),
2、January 2019 Inside Two Thumbs up:Previewing the Movie Space 2 The Current Capex Cycle 10 Subscription plans 13 Studios,SVOD and PVOD 17 Attractive valuations and dividend yields 18 Risks 20 Company Estimates and Adjustments 23 Analysts Macquarie Capital(USA)Inc.Chad Beynon +1 212 231 2634 Edward En
3、gel,CFA +1 415 762 5083 Jordan Bender +1 212 231 6558 Movie Theaters Two Thumbs up:Previewing the Movie Space Key points Free cash flow will massively accelerate in 2019/2020 IMAX is top pick given unit growth,stability,FCF acceleraton and low leverage We forecast+3%for domestic box office admission
4、s Theatre stocks are still very investible evidenced by all-time record 2018 admission revs(+7%yoy)after 4Q grew+2%.Within this report,we expand upon several 2019 themes including Capex roll-off into FCF,Loyalty plans driving visitation,in-home risk mitigation and below average valuations.While 2018
5、 was carried by several tentpoles,the quantity of pictures kept the“tail”relatively healthy as viewers became more critical,particularly after the opening weekend.In 2019,we expect another record year at the box,but more importantly,increased free-cash flow for operators as technology and property i
6、nvestments lead to EBITDA and FCF growth.BO Admission Rev Est:1Q19=-2%;2Q18=-2%;3Q18=+9%;4Q18=+8%;2019=+3%.Stock calls for 2019.On the exhibitor front,given the current status and the depressed valuation,we recommend IMAX(least leveraged and deep value),AMC(deep value/30%Intl)and then CNK(Neutral-In
7、tl headwinds);focus on FCF.Company Specific AMC Adjusting 18-20 EBITDA-$5/+$14/+$21m but maintain our TP at$23,which is based off of 7.5x our 2020E EBITDA(7.4x domestic/7.6x Europe);60%upside,6%dividend yield.This high beta name has started off well in 2019 as rising rate fears have waned and indust
8、ry performance appears to be strong.Looking to 2019,we expect AMC to benefit from its current Capex cycle,subscription plans,and other internal initiatives.Recent Capex could result in an additional+$100m of FCF when all is done,in our view.Overall,we maintain a positive view on AMC with leverage be
9、ing our#1 concern.IMAX Adjusting 18-20 EBITDA-$2/-$3/-$2m(-2/+1/-2%vs.cons)but maintain TP at$28 based on 10.3x our 2020E EBITDA;43%upside.Reasons to own include stable PSAs(per screen average),China and global unit backlog,cost reductions,new China strategy,US film slate and a cheap valuation.While
10、 the company didnt repurchase shares in 3Q,we expect this to change going forward.CNK Adjusting 18-20 EBITDA+$6/+$5/+$4m but maintain our TP at$41,or 8.1x our 2020E EBITDA.FX headwinds and LatAm uncertainties continue to be less risky for the company,in our view,which has been offset by healthy US f
11、undamentals.In 4Q,we expect LatAM FX to be-25%,while SS performance may have also fallen short of US trends.We expect fundamentals to reverse in 1H19,while FX remains a drag for one more quarter.Overall,low leverage,industry leading margins(24%),Reseat%(53%in US)positives will be slightly offset by
12、continued near-term LatAm headwinds,which keep us Neutral.Outlook Compared to cons,our 2019 EBITDA estimates are AMC(+3%),IMAX(+1%),CNK(-1%).Please see Figs 46-48 for our estimate changes.AMCCNKIMAXCurrent7.1x8.2x7.7x1 yr7.3x7.7x8.9x3 yr7.5x7.6x10.4x5 yr7.6x7.7x11.7xSTD0.6x0.5x2.4xCurrent ValuationT
13、ickerCompany 1wk1Mo3Mo6MoCNKCinemark3.9%3.6%-1.7%13.8%AMCAMC5.3%2.8%-27.0%-14.2%MCSMarcus0.9%3.8%-3.3%29.6%RDIReading0.9%1.6%4.3%-2.2%IMAXIMAX4.8%6.9%-11.2%-13.4%CGX-CACineplex2.9%15.3%-21.8%-8.8%Average3.1%5.7%-10.1%0.8%MovieRelease DateDomestic projection($m)Avengers:Endgame4/26/2019562Star Wars:E
14、pisode IX12/20/2019562The Lion King7/19/2019473Aladdin5/24/2019334Toy Story 46/21/2019296Spider-Man:Far From Home7/5/2019277The Secret Life of Pets 26/7/2019254Jumanji:The Next Chapter12/13/2019249Frozen 211/22/2019234It:Chapter Two9/6/2019231Macquarie Research Movie Theaters 21 January 2019 2 Two T
15、humbs up:Previewing the Movie Space 2018 was a domestic all-time record and we expect 2019 to experience SS growth of 3%4Q18 in review and a look at what 2019 has to offer 4Q18 box office admission revs increased 1.5%yoy to$2,934m,as Dr.Seuss The Grinch,Aquaman and Venom boosted 4Q to an all-time 4Q
16、 record.This was compared to our estimate of-3%as the quarter was comped against a tough prior year in which Star Wars:The Last Jedi grossed$517m.We believe the growth was driven by attendance,as we estimate that pricing was actually negative in the quarter.The slate in 4Q did not yield a relative o
17、utperformer like we saw drive records in prior quarters(1Q Black Panther,2Q-Avengers).Rather,there were solid contributions across the board.That said,top 10 movies accounted for only$1,831m of the total$2,934m in BO revs,down 24%from the prior year.Top 3/5/10 movies accounted for 24/37/62%of the to
18、tal box office,a notable difference from the 46/62/83%in the prior year.Fig 1 Top 10 Box Office Movies 4Q18 vs 4Q17($m)Title Studio Gross Open Title Studio Gross Open Dr.Seuss The Grinch(2018)Uni.$268 11/9/2019 Star Wars:The Last Jedi BV$620 12/15/2019 Aquaman WB$223 12/21/2019 Jumanji:Welcome to th
19、e Jungle Sony$405 12/20/2019 Venom(2018)Sony$213 10/5/2019 Thor:Ragnarok BV$315 11/3/2019 A Star is Born(2018)WB$201 10/5/2019 Justice League WB$229 11/17/2019 Bohemian Rhapsody Fox$191 11/2/2019 Coco BV$210 11/22/2019 Ralph Breaks the Internet BV$181 11/21/2019 The Greatest Showman Fox$174 12/20/20
20、19 Halloween(2018)Uni.$159 10/19/2019 Wonder LGF$132 11/17/2019 Fantastic Beasts:The Crimes of Grindelwald WB$157 11/16/2019 Pitch Perfect 3 Uni.$105 12/22/2019 Mary Poppins Returns BV$119 12/19/2019 Daddys Home 2 Par.$104 11/10/2019 Spider-Man:Into The Spider-Verse Sony$118 12/14/2019 Murder on the
21、 Orient Express(2017)Fox$103 11/10/2019 Total Top 10$1,831 Total Top 10$2,397 Source:Box Office Mojo,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Fig 2 Top Movies:2016/2017/2018 Source:Box Office Mojo,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 2016Total Gross2017Total Gross2018Total GrossFinding Dory486,295,561$Sta
22、r Wars:The Last Jedi517,218,368$Black Panther700,059,566$Rogue One:A Star Wars Story408,235,850$Beauty and the Beast(2017)504,014,165$Avengers:Infinity War678,815,482$Captain America:Civil War408,084,349$Wonder Woman412,563,408$Incredibles 2608,581,744$The Secret Life of Pets368,384,330$Guardians of
23、 the Galaxy Vol.2389,813,101$Jurassic World:Fallen Kingdom416,769,345$The Jungle Book(2016)364,001,123$Spider-Man:Homecoming334,201,140$Deadpool 2318,491,426$Deadpool363,070,709$It327,481,748$Dr.Seuss The Grinch(2018)267,990,065$Zootopia341,268,248$Thor:Ragnarok311,225,150$Aquaman222,817,079$Batman
24、v Superman:Dawn of Justice330,360,194$Despicable Me 3264,624,300$Mission:Impossible-Fallout220,159,104$Suicide Squad325,100,054$Logan226,277,068$Ant-Man and the Wasp216,648,740$Star Wars:The Force Awakens(2015)284,694,956$The Fate of the Furious225,764,765$Solo:A Star Wars Story213,767,512$Doctor St
25、range229,876,337$Justice League225,546,295$Venom(2018)213,338,688$Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them222,675,573$Dunkirk188,045,546$A Star is Born(2018)201,392,578$Moana206,477,478$Coco179,834,199$Bohemian Rhapsody190,914,392$The Revenant(2015)182,765,375$The LEGO Batman Movie175,750,384$A Quiet
26、 Place188,024,361$Jason Bourne162,434,410$Get Out175,484,140$Ralph Breaks the Internet181,280,843$Star Trek Beyond158,848,340$The Boss Baby175,003,033$Crazy Rich Asians174,043,165$X-Men:Apocalypse155,442,489$Pirates of the Caribbean:Dead Men Tell No Tales 172,558,876$Hotel Transylvania 3:Summer Vaca
27、tion167,510,016$Sing152,853,995$Jumanji:Welcome to the Jungle169,002,557$Halloween(2018)159,340,540$Trolls150,130,292$Kong:Skull Island168,052,812$Fantastic Beasts:The Crimes of Grindelwald157,257,505$Kung Fu Panda 3143,528,619$Hidden Figures167,400,048$The Meg145,443,742$2016 Top 20 Total5,444,528,
28、282$2017 Top 20 Total5,309,861,103$2018 Top 20 Total5,642,645,893$yoy%3%yoy%-2%yoy%6%4Q18 box office admission revs increased 1.5%yoy to$2,934m Macquarie Research Movie Theaters 21 January 2019 3 Fig 3 Annual admissions revenues were record Fig 4 Ticket sales accelerated in 2018 as well Source:Box O
29、ffice Mojo,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Source:Box Office Mojo,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Fig 5 Number of$100m Films was above average highlighting the breadth of product Fig 6 Average Ticket Price rose again as consumers remain willing to pay up for a quality experience Source:Box O
30、ffice Mojo,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Source:Box Office Mojo,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 International Markets set a record as well,which should help Studio Capex The global box office grew 2.7%to USD$41.7bn in 2018,with the majority of the increase coming from the strength in the N
31、orth American market.China,20%of the global market,continued to see another year of growth,up 9%from 2017 to USD$8.87bn,but the growth rate decelerated from+13.5%in 2017.The Chinese market continues to expand at rapid pace,and it is believed it will overtake the North American market(in admission re
32、vs)over time.Unlike a mature North American Market,China continues to bring on new supply to the market,opening 9.3k new screens in 2018,bringing the total amount to 60k(North America=43k).The China Film Administration set out the target to increase total movie screens in China to 80k by 2020 accord
33、ing to a document released in Dec 2018.Our Macquarie house estimate has Chinas BO growing 11%yoy to RMB$68bn,with 9.2k new screens added in 2019.Brazil BO revenue,a key indicator for CNK with exposure to Central/South America,was down 5%in local currency and we estimate down 20%in USD.This was led b
34、y attendance decelerating 7%,but ATP+3%as macro and political uncertainties continue to plague the country.-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018$msAdmission Revenueyoy%chg-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%
35、8.0%1,180 1,200 1,220 1,240 1,260 1,280 1,300 1,320 1,340 1,360 1,3802010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018msTicketsyoy%chg28 25 32 25 30 26 32 31 27 27 35 32 -5 10 15 20 25 30 35 402007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018$6.85$7.18$7.50$7.89$7.94$7.96$8.13$8.17$8.43$8.65$8.
36、93$9.06$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00$9.00$10.002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Macquarie Research Movie Theaters 21 January 2019 4 Fig 7 Historical International Markets Source:comScore,MPAA,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Top films heading into 2019 an
37、d HSX projections:1Q19E Major releases:Glass aka Unbreakable 2 aka Split 2,The LEGO Movie 2:The Second Part,Captain Marvel and Dumbo 2Q19E Major releases:Avengers 4,Pokemon Detective Pikachu,Aladdin,The Secret Life of Pets 2,Toy Story 4 3Q19E Major releases:The Lion King,It:Chapter Two,Spider-Man:Fa
38、r From Home 4Q19E Major releases:Joker,Frozen 2,Jumanji:The Next Chapter,Star Wars:Episode IX 10.910.411.111.411.110.910.69.79.610.111.112.414.215.016.03.03.03.42.83.405101520253035404520132014201520162017(US$bln)DomesticEMEAAsia PacificLatin AmericaMacquarie Research Movie Theaters 21 January 2019
39、5 Fig 8 Top Movies in 2019/20/21(all movies expected to generate$50m+domestically)Source:HSX,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Macquaries Outlook Forecasting flat attendance but 3%admission revs growth to$12.157bn in 2019.In our view,the slate/spacing appears impressive(mainly in 2Q/3Q and Decembe
40、r)and HSX is projecting some big hits(Fig 8).Our admission revenues are driven by an ATP increase of 2.5%each quarter in 2019,slightly above the long-term average of+2%given enhanced concepts(PLFs,alcohol,food,reseats,etc.)beginning to come online in theaters.Despite our flat attendance projection,t
41、his still remains above the long-term average of down 0.5%per year.Combining our attendance and admission projections,we believe this is line with expectations for 2019.That said,our estimates are as follows:BO Admission Rev Est:1Q19=-2%;2Q18=-2%;3Q18=+9%;4Q18=+8%;2019=+3%MovieRelease DateDomestic p
42、rojection($m)MovieRelease DateDomestic projection($m)Glass1/18/2019159Midway11/8/201967The LEGO Movie 2:The Second Part2/8/2019191Kingsman:The Great Game11/15/201981What Men Want2/8/201954Frozen 211/22/2019234Alita:Battle Angel2/14/201972Jumanji:The Next Chapter12/13/2019249Happy Death Day 2U2/14/20
43、1956Star Wars:Episode IX12/20/2019562How to Train Your Dragon:The.2/22/2019144Cats12/20/201974Captain Marvel3/8/2019226Little Women-Sony12/25/201958Us3/15/2019113The Mitchells Vs.The Machines1/10/202052Dumbo3/29/2019203The Voyage of Doctor Dolittle1/17/202087Shazam!4/5/2019101Bad Boys For Lif3 aka B
44、ad Boys III1/17/202073Hellboy4/12/201976Doctor Sleep1/24/202058Avengers:Endgame4/26/2019562Birds of Prey(And The Fantabulous.2/7/2020143Uglydolls5/3/201953Peter Rabbit 22/7/202061Pokemon Detective Pikachu5/10/2019197James Bond 252/14/2020152John Wick:Chapter 35/17/201994Onward aka Untitled Suburban.
45、3/6/202097Aladdin5/24/2019334Mulan3/27/2020150Godzilla:King of Monsters5/31/2019189Snake Eyes aka G.I.JOE spinoff3/27/202050Rocketman5/31/201954Fast&Furious 94/10/2020155The Secret Life of Pets 26/7/2019254Trolls World Tour4/17/202098Dark Phoenix aka X-Men 76/7/2019139Legally Blonde 35/8/202064Men i
46、n Black:International6/14/2019167A Quiet Place 25/15/2020120Toy Story 46/21/2019296Godzilla vs.Kong5/20/2020171Ford vs.Ferrari aka Untitled James.6/28/201961Maleficent 25/29/2020137Annabelle 37/3/201984Wonder Woman 19846/5/2020291Spider-Man:Far From Home7/5/2019277Candyman6/12/202063The Lion King7/1
47、9/2019473Top Gun 2 aka Top Gun:Maverick6/26/2020108Once Upon a Time in Hollywood aka.7/26/2019130Minions 27/3/2020172Fast and Furious Presents:Hobbs.8/2/2019163The SpongeBob Movie:Its A.7/17/202053Dora the Explorer8/2/201969Jungle Cruise7/24/2020125The New Mutants8/2/201956The Croods 29/18/2020101Ar
48、temis Fowl8/9/201960Bios10/2/202068The Angry Birds Movie 28/16/201956Death on the Nile10/2/202061It:Chapter Two9/6/2019231Vivo11/6/202067Spies in Disguise aka Pigeon.9/13/201962Red Notice11/13/202088Joker10/4/2019128Fantastic Beasts 311/20/2020129Gemini Man10/4/201970Avatar 2:The Way of Water12/18/2
49、020358Zombieland 210/11/201960Sing 212/25/2020168The Addams Family10/11/201950Sherlock Holmes 312/25/202055A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.10/18/201955Jurassic World 36/11/2021293Charlies Angels11/1/201980Indiana Jones 57/9/202173Terminator sequel11/1/201971Avatar 3:The Seed Bearer12/17/2021290S
50、onic the Hedgehog11/8/201983Macquarie Research Movie Theaters 21 January 2019 6 Fig 9 Macquarie BO Outlook Source:Box Office Mojo,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 Fig 10 Macquarie 1Q BO Revs Estimate Fig 11 Macquarie 2Q BO Revs Estimate Source:Box Office Mojo,Macquarie Capital(USA),January 2019 S
