1、行业报告 科技行业香港2019 年 3 月 14 日 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS,ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CIMB SECURITIES(USA),INC.AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH.Powered by the EFA
2、 Platform 科科技技 2019 年首两个月数据反映下游需求仍需时回升；年首两个月数据反映下游需求仍需时回升；不宜太早不宜太早对硬件行业转趋乐观对硬件行业转趋乐观 台湾上市的硬件公司发布了 2019 年 2 月的营业额。为了避免农历新年的影响，我们将 2019 年 1 月和 2 月合并用于分析。总体而言，2019 年 1 月至 2 月与2018 年 12 月相比，在行业基础上,我们仍未看到同比营业额的大幅增长。但我们确实看到个别公司报告 2019 年 1 月至 2 月与 2018 年 12 月相比同比增长较快。苹果阵营的供应商表现仍然有些疲弱。Android 阵营名称表现优异，特别是 M
3、ediatek，其营业额恢复正增长，这对中国 Android 阵营的公司有利。不过，我们仍然建议投资者在看香港上市的手机部件公司的时候要比较选择性。与 5G 相关的公司在年初至今表现良好，但由于对长飞 6869.HK的前景担忧，其股价承压。我们认为，由于获利回吐，5G 相关公司可能面临压力，但任何股价调整都应提供重新进场机会。热门投资主题是：（a）可折叠显示智能手机，b）边缘计算，以及 c）“泛在电力物联网”。香港上市的硬件公司将在未来几周公布其 2018 年业绩。我们认为，由于业绩后获利回吐导致的任何股价疲软将为那些对增长不太担心的投资者提供良好的重新进入机会。2019 年首两个月的营业额同
4、比增长未有大幅回升年首两个月的营业额同比增长未有大幅回升 总体而言，香港上市的硬件公司（尤其是显示器相关公司）如亿都（国际控股）0259.HK、京东方精电0710.HK和华显光电0334.HK表现良好；它们股价跑赢是由于市场对可折迭显示器的关注度提高。大立光电的 2019 年 2 月营业额数据令人满意，这提升了香港上市手机部件名称的股价表现。然而，瑞声科技2018.HK的盈警给香港上市的手机部件股带来压力，特别是苹果阵营股份。在苹果阵营中，上游公司（如台积电（代工）、玉晶光（镜头）和可成科技（外壳）1 月至 2 月的表现与 2018 年 12 月相比仍较疲弱，反映 2019 年一季度的市况仍然
5、艰巨。在2019 年 2 月的 2019 年世界移动通信大会举行之后，我们预计市场将关注 2018 年2019 年硬件公司的业绩和指引，尤其是手机组件商在 2019 年 3 月公布的资料。我们认为，从长远来看，投资者较看好正在获得市场份额并且产品组合趋向多样化的公司。我们仍较看好电信设备公司，而近日股价疲弱带来了重新进场的机会。我们认为 OLED 股份带来了长线投资机会，但以短期交易动能来看，边缘计算和“泛在电力物联网”的投资主题正在吸引市场关注。至于近期经营业绩和消息面，我们认为香港上市的手机部件股的股价仍将波动，因为它们将在未来几周公布 2018 年业绩，市场也在等待管理层的指引。但我们已
6、经看到正面的信号，例如联发科技 2019 年 1 月至 2 月的同比增长较 2018 年 12 月加快。过去几天，5G 相关股的股价一直受压，我们认为这是由于市场关注长飞前景所引致，但这主要是公司自身问题。大多数台湾上市的科技股（材料和设备、晶圆、半导体、IC 设计、LED、光通信、PCB、TFT-LCD、外壳、镜头、DRAM、ODM、光学元件和外壳、网络、PCB、汽车电子、终端和分销）公布了 2019 年 2 月营业额。为避免受到春节假期的影响，我们将 1 月和 2 月的数据合并分析。以行业计，有六个板块-显示器、镜头、组件、分销和终端的 2019 年 1 月至 2 月收入同比增长高于 20
7、18 年 12 月。其他子行业在同期的同比增速则放缓。在 PC 方面，PCB 公司，特别是微星科技和技嘉，2019 年 1 月至 2 月的表现继续较弱（与 2018 年 12 月相比）。华硕和宏基的 2019年 1 月至 2 月表现也较 2018 年 12 月疲软。2018 年四季度 PC 服务器出货量放缓的情况，可能会对 PC 相关股造成压力。我们仍然认为槟杰科达1665.HK和鸿腾六零八八精密科技6088.HK等股价落后者均值得留意，它们的增长潜力并没有完全反映在股价上。香港 分析员分析员 布家杰布家杰 T(852)39686318 E .hk 2 科技行业香港 科技-其他2019 年 1
8、 月 18 日 半导体。半导体。我们继续看到 2019 年 1 月至 2 月的经营业绩出现分歧。台湾半导体供应链（包括代工厂、封装和测试）的相关数据似乎略为疲弱。而定位独特的公司则继续有优异表现。世界先进的表现优于台积电、联华电子和稳懋半导体。诺瓦泰克继续表现优异，但 Egis 则令市场失望。联发科 2019 年 1 月至 2 月的营业额录得同比增长。世界先进的表现符合华虹1347.HK的正面指引；华虹此前重申对前景的积极看法，主要是考虑到市场对电力管理产品的需求坚挺。至于技术流程，28nm 是最具竞争力的细分市场，就下游应用而言，智能手机市场可能表现较差。而随着工艺流程转移和市场关注应用程序
9、，华虹的增长也将受到支持。至于中芯国际0918.HK，公司 2019 年上半年将面临一些挑战，但中芯国际管理层提到公司在 12 纳米工艺和第二代 FinFET 方面取得了突破。至于整个行业的投资情绪，2019 年下半年的行业活动趋向活跃，这可能会提振市场对代工厂的情绪。图图1:台台湾湾上上市市公公司司的的月月度度收收入入同同比比增增长长(1)来源:彭博,中国银河国际证券研究部 光通信。光通信。与 2018 年 12 月相比，2019 年 1 月至 2 月光通信的同比增长放缓。台湾光通信平均同比增长率从 2018 年 12 月的 10.45进一步放缓至 2019 年 1 月至 2 月的 2.8。
10、电信设备制造商的股价在过去几天受压，主要是市场关注其增长前景。我们认为长飞的市场份额流失是公司自身问题，并不代表市场对电信设备的需求有所转弱。显示器。显示器。与 2018 年 12 月相比，友达光电和群创光电在 2019 年 1 月至 2 月的营业额同比跌幅收窄。Amtran 公布 2019 年 2 月营业额同比增长约 12.0。在股价表现方面，电视生产商和面板制造商跑赢大盘，主要是由于政府或推出促进家电销售的政策。由于行业消息指面板价格稳定，加上政府有机会推出促进电视销售的政策，电视制造商如创维0751.HK和 TCL 电子1070.HK、冠捷0903.HK甚至小米1810.HK的表现可能继
11、续偏强。在 2019 年世界移动通信大会后，香港上市的 OLED 公司如信利国际0732.HK、亿都（国际控股）0259.HK和晶门科技2878.HK的股价或会整固一段时间。但 OLED 显示器公司应有中长期的增长动力。PC：市场越来越关注通信设备：市场越来越关注通信设备 PCB。我们仍然建议投资者关注全球 PC 服务器出货量疲软的情况，以及其对联想的影响。微软、技嘉、宏基和华硕的弱势表现或被视为 PC 供应链的负面消息。我们认为，中航国际控股0161.HK旗下的深南电路将成为 5G 发展的受益者，因为它是现时少数生产电信设备高端 PCB 的中国公司之一。深南电路比天线和射频制造商更为上游。鉴
12、于下游需求坚挺和利用率较高，深南电路还就 2019 年一季度发布了正面指引。市场也可能会关注建滔积层板1888.HK、广东生益科技和建滔化工0148.HK。0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0Materials&Equipment-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.00IC design%-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.0Wafer%-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.0Foundry%3 科技行业香港 科技-其他2019 年 1 月 18 日 图图 2:台台湾湾上上市
13、市的的月月度度收收入入同同比比增增长长(2)来源:彭博,中国银河国际证券研究部 香港上市的安卓阵营手机组件股。香港上市的安卓阵营手机组件股。对于香港安卓阵营手机组件股 2019 年 1 月至 2 月表现坚挺，市场可能会视为正面信号。我们仍较看好鸿腾六零八八精密科技6088.HK和槟杰科达1665.HK等股份，因为它们已确认到公司自身的增长动力。-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.0LED%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0Optical Communications%-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.
14、015.020.025.030.0PCBs%-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.0TFT-LCD%Sector Note TechnologyHong KongMarch 31,2019 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS,ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CIMB SECUR
15、ITIES(USA),INC.AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH.Powered by the EFA Platform -6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.0Packaging&Testing%-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.0Casings%-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.0LENs%-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0DRAMs%0.05.010.015.0
16、20.025.030.035.040.045.0Components%-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.0ODMs%-30.0-25.0-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.0OBMs%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.0Distribution%-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.0Terminals%Technology-Others JanFeb 2019 data confirms that it will take time for downstream demand to pick up.
17、Too early to turn positive on the whole hardware sector.Taiwan-listed technology names reported their Feb 2019 turnover.To avoid the CNY impact,we combined Jan and Feb 2019 for our analysis.In general,we still did not see a major pick-up in YoY turnover growth in JanFeb 2019 vs.Dec 2018.On a sector
18、basis,we still didnt see a major pick-up YoY,but we did see individual companies report higher YoY growth in JanFeb 2019 vs.Dec 2018.The performance of suppliers in the Apple camp remained somewhat weak.Android camp names outperformed,especially,Mediatek,whose turnover resumed positive growth,which
19、is positive for China Android names.However,we still suggest investors be selective on HK-listed handset component names.The 5G-related names have performed well on a YTD basis,but their shares were under pressure,triggered by concerns about the outlook for YOFC 6869.HK and news flow.We share the vi
20、ew that 5G-related names may come under pressure due to profit taking,but any share price correction should offer a re-entry opportunity.The hot investment themes are:(a)foldable display smartphones,b)edge computing,and c)“Ubiquitous Electric Power IoT”.HK-listed hardware names will announce their 2
21、018 results in the coming weeks We maintain the view that any share price weakness due to post-results profit-taking will offer a good re-entry opportunity for sectors for which there is less concern about the growth outlook.No major pick-up in YoY turnover growth in JanFeb 2019 In general,shares of
22、 HK-listed hardware names,especially display-related names such as Yeebo 0259.HK,BOE Varitronix 0710.HK and China Display Optoelectronic 0334.HK,performed well;their outperformance is due to increasing market attention to foldable displays.Largan reported satisfactory Feb 2019 turnover figures,which
23、 boosted the share price performance of HK-listed handset component names.However,a profit warning by AAC 2018.HK put pressure on shares of HK-listed handset component players,especially Apple camp names.In the Apple camp,the performance of the upstream names,such as TSMC(foundry)Genius(lenses),and
24、Catcher(casings),remained weak in JanFeb vs.Dec 2018,indicating that Q1 2019 will remain challenging for the Apple camp.After the 2019 MWC in Feb 2019,we expect the market to focus on the 2018 results announcements and guidance for 2019 by hardware names,especially in the handset component segment i
25、n Mar 2019.We maintain the view that from a long-term perspective,investors will prefer companies that are gaining market share and diversifying their product portfolio.We still prefer telecommunications equipment companies,and the current share price weakness provides a re-visit opportunity.We main
26、tain the view that OLED names offer a long-term opportunity but for near-term trading momentum,the investment themes of edge computing and“Ubiquitous Electric Power IoT”are gaining market attention.Regarding near-term operating performance and news flow,we believe that the share price movement of HK
27、-listed handset component names will remain volatile,as they will announce their 2018 results in the coming weeks and the market is also waiting for management guidance.But we have seen positive signals,such as Mediatek resuming YoY turnover growth in JanFeb 2019 vs.Dec 2018.Shares of the 5G-related
28、 names have been under pressure in the past several days,which in our view is due to concerns triggered by YOFC,but this is more related to company-specific issues.Most of the Taiwan-listed technology names(materials and equipment,wafers,semiconductors,IC design,LEDs,optical communications,PCBs,TFT-
29、LCDs,casings,lenses,DRAMs,ODMs,optical components and casings,networking,PCBs,auto electronics,terminals and distribution)have reported their Feb 2019 turnover.To avoid the CNY effect,we combined the Jan&Feb figures.Sector-wide,six segments displays,LENs,components,distribution and terminals saw hig
30、her YoY top-line growth in JanFeb 2019 vs.Dec 2018.Other subsectors continued to see a slowdown in YoY growth in JanFeb 2019 vs.Dec 2018.On the PC side,PCB names,especially MSI and Gigabyte,continued to report soft operating performance in JanFeb 2019 vs.Dec 2018.Asustek and Acer also reported soft
31、performance in JanFeb 2019 vs Dec 2018.News flow on a slowdown in PC server shipments in Q4 2018 may put pressure on PC-related names.We still believe that laggards such as Pentamaster 1665.HK and FIT Hon Teng 6088.HK look interesting and that their growth potential isnt fully reflected in their sha
32、re prices.Hong Kong Analyst(s)Mark Po T(852)39686318 E .hk 2 TechnologyHong Kong Technology-OthersJanuary 18,2019 Semiconductors.We continued to see divergence in operating performance in JanFeb 2019.The signals from the semiconductor supply chain in Taiwan,including foundries,and packaging&testing,
33、are somewhat soft.Niche players continued to outperform.Vanguard outperformed TSMC,UMC and WINS.Novatek continued to outperform,but Egis disappointed the market.Mediatek reported YoY turnover growth in JanFeb 2019.The outperformance of Vanguard is in line with positive guidance by Hua Hong 1347.HK,w
34、hich reiterated its positive view on its outlook,given resilient demand for power management products.Regarding technology processes,28nm is the most competitive segment,and in terms of downstream applications,the smartphone segment may underperform.Hua Hongs growth will also be supported by process
35、 migration and the focus on applications.1H 2019 remans somewhat challenging for SMIC 0918.HK,but SMIC management mentioned that the Company had achieved a breakthrough in the 12nm process and 2nd generation FinFET.Regarding sentiment on the whole industry,we might see a pick-up in activity in 2H 20
36、19,which may boost sentiment on foundries.Figure 1:Monthly YoY turnover growth of Taiwan-listed companies(1)SOURCES:Bloomberg,CGIS RESEARCH Optical communications.YoY growth of optical communications softened in JanFeb 2019 vs.Dec 2018.The average YoY turnover growth rate of Taiwanese optical commun
37、ications names moderated further to 2.8%in JanFeb 2019 from 10.45%in Dec 2018.Shares of telecommunication equipment makers have been under pressure in the past several days due to concerns about their outlook.We believe YOFCs market share loss is company-specific and has no implications for telecomm
38、unication equipment demand.Displays.Both AUO and Innolux saw the YoY decline in turnover narrow in JanFeb 2019 vs.Dec 2018.Amtran reported YoY turnover growth of about 12.0%in Feb 2019.In terms of share price performance,TV makers and panel makers outperformed,given news flow on the possible governm
39、ent policy to boost sales of home appliances.TV makers,such as of Skyworth 0751.HK and TCL Electronics 1070.HK,TPV 0903.HK and even Xiaomi 1810.HK may continue to perform well,given news flow on the stabilization of panel prices and news flow on the government policy to boost TV sales.Shares of HK-l
40、isted OLED names,such as Truly 0732.HK,Yeebo 0259.HK and Solomon Systech 2878.HK,may consolidate after the 2019 MWC.But OLED display names should offer medium-to long-term growth potential.PCs:Increasing attention to PCBs for communications equipment.We still suggest investors watch for softness in
41、global PC server shipments and the consequent impact on Lenovo.The weak performance of MSI,Gigabyte,Acer and Asustek may be treated as negative news for the PC supply chain.We maintain the view that Shennan Circuits 002916.CH,under AVIC International 0161.HK,will be a 5G beneficiary,as it is one of
42、the few Chinese companies producing high-end PCBs for telecommunications equipment.Shennan Circuits is even more upstream than antenna and RF manufacturers.Shennan Circuits also released positive guidance for Q1 2019,given resilient downstream demand and a higher utilization rate.The market might al
43、so look at Kingboard Laminates 1888.HK,Guangdong Shengyi and Kingboard Chemical 0148.HK.0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0Materials&Equipment-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.00IC design%-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.0Wafer%-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.0Foundry%3 TechnologyHong Kong Technology
44、-OthersJanuary 18,2019 Figure 2:Monthly YoY turnover growth of Taiwan-listed companies(2)SOURCES:Bloomberg,CGIS RESEARCH HK Android handset component names.The market might treat the resilient JanFeb 2019 performance of HK Android handset component names as a positive signal.We still prefer the name
45、s like FIT Hon Teng 6088.HK and Pentamaster 1665.HK,as they have identified company-specific growth drivers.-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.0LED%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0Optical Communications%-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.0PCBs%-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.0TFT-LCD%
46、4 TechnologyHong Kong Technology-OthersJanuary 18,2019 Figure 3:Monthly YoY turnover growth of Taiwan-listed companies(3)SOURCES:Bloomberg,CGIS RESEARCH -6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.0Packaging&Testing%-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.0Casings%-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.0LENs%-30.0-20.0
47、-10.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0DRAMs%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0Components%-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.0ODMs%-30.0-25.0-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.0OBMs%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.0Distribution%-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.0Terminals%5 TechnologyHong Kong Technology-OthersJ
48、anuary 18,2019 Figure 4:Monthly YoY turnover growth of Taiwan-listed companies(4)SOURCES:Bloomberg,CGIS RESEARCH SectorTickerName09/1810/1811/1812/1801/19Jan-Feb/2019 YoY growth picked up in Oct vs Sep 2018YoY growth picked up in Nov vs Oct YoY growth picked up in Dec vs Nov YoY growth picked up in
49、Jan vs Dec YoY growth picked up in Jan-Feb 2019 vs Dec 2018Materials&Equipment2360 TT EquityCHROMA ATE-8.6-5.2-51.64.6-8.6-19.0YesYes2395 TT EquityADVANTECH-2.514.8-1.44.64.411.2YesYesYes6414 TT EquityENNOCONN CORP62.748.553.442.571.565.1YesYes6166 TT EquityADLINK TECHNOLOGY INC-27.913.35.812.623.41
50、8.1YesYesYes1590 TT EquityAIRTAC INTERNATIONAL-2.34.21.95.5-15.6-6.4YesYesYes6510 TT EquityChunghwa Precision-15.05.181.029.31.7-12.3YesYes2049 TT EquityHIWIN TECHNOLOGIES CORP46.234.412.7-18.1-26.1-24.0Yes8215 TT EquityBENQ MATERIALS CORP22.641.421.930.612.015.5YesYesYes5536 TT EquityACTER CO LTD22
