1、 Approved by USDAs World Agricultural Outlook Board Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Michael McConnell,coordinator David Olson,contributor U.S.Sugar Supplies and Ending Stocks Tighten With Reduced Mexico Production Forecasts In the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE),Mexico sugar
2、 production for 2019/20 is reduced substantially due to continued poor yields and recovery rates as it passes the halfway mark in the harvest season.With less production,Mexicos exports are lowered,as wellparticularly exports to the United States.U.S.sugar supplies for 2019/20 are also reduced,as le
3、ss beet sugar production and lower imports from Mexico are only slightly offset by higher high-tier tariff imports.Projections for U.S.domestic deliveries and exports are unchanged,resulting in substantially lower ending stocks and a very tight market,by historical standards.02,0004,0006,0008,00010,
4、00012,00014,00016,0002006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/19(est.)2019/20(proj.)1,000 STRVU.S.sugar supply,use,and ending stocks,2006/07 to 2019/20Ending stocksTotal supplyTotal useSource:USDA,World Agricultural Outlook Board.Economic Research Serv
5、ice|Situation and Outlook Report Next release is April 15,2020 SSS-M-379|March 16,2020 2 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-379,March 16,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Mexico Outlook Low Yields and Recovery Rates Lower Mexico Production Forecasts Unfavorable weather conditions have continued to
6、 impact Mexicos sugarcane sector,reducing the outlook for sugar production from the 2019/20 crop.Drought conditions through the summer and fall of 2019 have resulted in lower yields.Additionally,rain throughout the peak harvest season has resulted in a slow pace of harvesting the crop and has negati
7、vely impacted recovery rates.The USDA projects Mexico sugar production at 5.200 million metric tons,actual value(MT)in the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE),a 472,000-MT decrease from the previous month.The projection is based on Mexicos harvesting about 780,000 hectares,wh
8、ich would be lower than the previous years record total but in line with recent historical averages.The Mexico sugarcane crop is often strongly influenced by how the latter portion of the harvest season performs.If dry weather conditions persist through May and early June,then additional area can be
9、 harvested and production boosted.The current USDA forecast would require that conditions,unlike in January and February,remain dry and allow the harvest to continue at a strong pace through the remainder of the year.sPmQtRxPvN6M8Q6MtRnNnPpPiNmMsRlOqRpQbRnMqPMYmMmNNZnMzR3 Sugar and Sweeteners Outloo
10、k,SSS-M-379,March 16,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Mexicos sugarcane yields and mill recovery rates have remained much lower than historical levels.Through the end of February,the cumulative yield of the current crop is nearly 11-percent lower than the previous year,and the lowest yield on rec
11、ord going back to at least 2008/09.Recovery rates are at the lowest level since 1991/92,down 5 percent compared with the previous years crop.Typically,by this point in the harvest season,these parameters can be accurate predictors for the crops overall performance.The low yield and recovery rate fig
12、ures can be mostly attributed to drought conditions during the growing phase of this years crop and are unlikely to substantially improve,even with favorable conditions for the remainder of the harvest season.Table 1:Mexico sugar supply and use,2017/18-2018/19 and projected 2019/20,March 2020Items20
13、17/182018/19(estimate)2019/20(forecast)Beginning stocks1,0021,3951,169Production6,0106,4265,200Imports2208589 Imports for consumption1322224 Imports for sugar-containing product exports,IMMEX 1/,other886365Total supply7,2327,9056,458Disappearance Human consumption4,2284,0924,057 For sugar-containing
14、 product exports(IMMEX)482460435 Other deliveries and end-of-year statistical adjustment29-200Total4,7394,5324,492Exports1,0992,2041,030 Exports to the United States&Puerto Rico1,047856997 Exports to other countries521,34834Total use5,8386,7375,522Ending stocks1,3951,169936Beginning stocks1,0621,478
15、1,239Production6,3706,8115,512Imports2349094 Imports for consumption1402325 Imports for sugar-containing product exports(IMMEX)936769Total supply7,6668,3806,845Disappearance Human consumption4,4824,3374,300 For sugar-containing product exports(IMMEX)510488461 Other deliveries and end-of-year statist
16、ical adjustment31-210Total5,0234,8044,761Exports1,1652,3371,092 Exports to the United States&Puerto Rico1,1109081,057 Exports to other countries551,42936Total use6,1887,1415,853Ending stocks1,4781,239992Stocks-to-human consumption(percent)33.028.623.1Stocks-to-use(percent)23.917.316.9High-fructose c
17、orn syrup(HFCS)consumption(dry weight)1,5931,5281,5201/IMMEX=Industria Manufacturera,Maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportacin.1,000 metric tons,raw value 1,000 metric tons,actual weightSource:USDA,World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Economic Research Service,Sugar and Sweeteners Outlo
18、ok;Conadesuca.4 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-379,March 16,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service Domestic deliveries in Mexico are projected to be 4.492 million MT,unchanged from the previous month.This includes 4.057 million MT delivered for domestic food and beverage consumption,also unchanged
19、from the February report but representing a 0.9-percent decrease from 2018/19 totals.Through January,sugar deliveries for domestic human consumption are 2.7 percent lower than the same period the previous year.Overall,trends from the past several years show a general flattening trend in sugar and ca
20、loric sweetener use in Mexico.This may be at least partially due to campaigns from the local popular press and Government agencies designed to promote health and combat obesity trends in Mexico.Deliveries to the IMMEX program,which focuses on manufacturing products for export,are projected at 435,00
21、0 MTalso unchanged from the previous months report,but down from 2018/19 totals.This total includes deliveries made from domestic mills,as well as imported sugar used specifically for exported products.Prices in Mexicos domestic markets have remained strong,likely due to the expected tight supply si
22、tuation.Prices for Mexican-produced refinado sugar(high-polarity sugar most similar to U.S.-produced refined sugar)have been particularly strong,as tight supplies in the United States may be influencing the Mexican domestic market.Despite not increasing as much as refinado,prices for lower-polarity
23、estandar sugarmost commonly used by households in Mexicohave also remained elevated.The average wholesale price for estandar in Mexico City for the first 3 weeks of February equated to over 35 cents per pound.1,3771,3561,3791,3381,4451,4421,5131,4291,5181,47848954455245646544747051346846002004006008
24、001,0001,2001,4001,6002010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20Thousand MTSugarHFCSFigure 2Mexican sweetener consumption October to January,2010/11 to 2019/20Source:Conadesuca.Mexico Sugar Exports Constrained by Lower Production The weather-related decline in production
25、in Mexico has significant impacts on Mexicos available supplies for foreign markets.The March WASDE forecasts Mexico exports for 2019/20 at 1.030 million MT,a 472,000-MT reduction from the February report.The reduction is expected to come from fewer shipments to the United States.Mexico exports to t
26、he United States are projected to be 997,000 MT,accounting for nearly all the change in Mexicos total export outlook.Exports to other countries are projected at 34,000 MTa less-than 1,000-MT increase from the previous monthwhich assumes that no additional exports are made to non-U.S.destinations for
27、 the remainder of the fiscal year.Ending stocks are the key constraints on Mexicos available supplies for export.Ending stocks are projected to total 936,000 MT for 2019/20.The projection is unchanged from the previous month and equals 2 months of domestic deliveries(both for human consumption and f
28、or IMMEX)as a domestic policy target,ensuring that there is enough sugar to bridge the period between the end of the fiscal year and the beginning of the 2020/21 sugarcane harvest in late-November.Any additional exports beyond the current forecast would likely result in shortages in Mexicos domestic
29、 market.The production of low-polarity sugar may also become a constraint,depending on developments as the harvest progresses.According to the Suspension Agreements between the U.S.Department of Commerce(USDOC)and the Government of Mexico,Mexico sugar exporters must ship 70 percent of their exports
30、as raw sugar,defined in the agreement as having less than 99.2 polarity.Through the end of February,Mexican mills have produced 5 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-379,March 16,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service 01002003004005006007008009001,000Peso per 50 kgFigure 3Mexico Estandar and Refinado su
31、gar prices,monthly,January 2010 to February 2020EstandarRefinadoSource:USDA,Economic Research Service.6 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-379,March 16,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service 296,000 MT of this specification,which is 19 percent lower than the previous year.This polarity specification is
32、 only produced by a minority of Mexican mills,usually near Gulf of Mexico ports,since this type of sugar is only exported and not used domestically.This is the region,however,that has been most severely impacted by the drought,resulting in lower production in the region.The USDOCafter consultation w
33、ith the USDAannounced in November 2019 that there would be an increase of 100,000 short tons,raw value(STRV)for“refined sugar”within the Export Limit.The USDOC also announced in March 2020 that they would add an additional 200,000 STRV of“refined sugar”to the quota.These two actions allow 300,000 ST
34、RV of higher polarity sugar to enter under the quota.Given the current export forecast,that would mean that about 518,000 MT of low-polarity sugar would need to be shipped from Mexico to the United States to remain compliant with the Suspension Agreement.The pace remains well below the amount needed
35、 to meet the proportion of the full Export Limit,as calculated by USDOC from the March WASDEeven with the USDOC actions in November and March.The progress and production mix for the remainder of the Mexican sugar-producing season will remain an important market factor to monitor.Source:Conadesuca;US
36、DA,Economic Research Service.7 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-379,March 16,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service U.S.Domestic Outlook U.S.Sugar Production Lowered Due to Less Beet Sugar The U.S.sugar supply and use balance sheet for 2019/20 is currently projected to be tightwith a stocks-to-use ra
37、tio of 7.2 percentprimarily due to the reduced outlook for imports.Domestic production is also lowered in the March WASDE,however.U.S.sugar production is projected to be 8.030 million STRV,a 127,000-STRV reduction from the February report.Beet sugar production for 2019/20 is projected to be 4.317 mi
38、llion STRV,a 127,000-STRV reduction from the February report.The reduction is due to a reduced sucrose extraction rate and higher rate of shrink in the sugarbeet piles,resulting in less sugar produced from sliced beets.The sugar from beet slices matches the forecast provided by beet processors in th
39、e latest Sweetener Market Data(SMD)released by the USDA Farm Service Agency(FSA).The processors forecast corroborates the reported data on the slicing campaign thus far.Through January,the rate of sugar produced from sliced sugarbeets has been below last years levels as well as long-term averages.Li
40、kewise,the reduction in the forecasts from sugarbeet processors suggest that an increase in shrink is warranted.With the smaller sugarbeet crop,it Table 2:U.S.sugar:Supply and use,by fiscal year(Oct./Sept.),March 2020Items2019/202019/20(forecast)(forecast)Beginning stocks 1,8762,0081,7831,7021,8221,
41、617Total production 9,2938,9998,0318,4308,1637,285 Beet sugar5,2794,9394,3174,7894,4803,917 Cane sugar4,0144,0603,7133,6413,6833,369 Florida1,9832,0052,0691,7991,8191,877 Louisiana1,8621,9071,5131,6891,7301,372 Texas169147131153134119 Hawaii000000Total imports3,2773,0703,3392,9732,7853,029 Tariff-ra
42、te quota imports 1,6631,5411,6741,5091,3981,519 Other program imports326438350296397318 Non-program imports1,2871,0921,3151,1689901,193 Mexico 1,2231,0001,1651,1109081,057 High-duty64911505883136Total supply14,44514,07713,15313,10512,77011,932Total exports 17035351543132Miscellaneous8228075260Delive
43、ries for domestic use12,18512,23112,23011,05411,09611,095 Transfer to sugar-containing products for exports under re-export program11098801008973 Transfer to polyhydric alcohol,feed,other alcohol282725252523 Commodity Credit Corporation(CCC)sale for ethanol,other000000 Deliveries for domestic food a
44、nd beverage use 12,04812,10612,12510,93010,98211,000Total use12,43812,29412,26511,28311,15311,127Ending stocks 2,0081,7838881,8221,617805 Private2,0081,7838881,8221,617805 Commodity Credit Corporation(CCC)000000Stocks-to-use ratio16.1414.507.2416.1414.507.24Source:USDA,Economic Research Service,Suga
45、r and Sweetener Outlook.2018/19(estimate)2017/181,000 Short tons,raw value1,000 Metric tons,raw value2017/182018/19(estimate)8 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook,SSS-M-379,March 16,2020 USDA,Economic Research Service is difficult to estimate shrink based on historical values.Shrink is impacted by environm
46、ental and weather conditions present for sugarbeets stored in the winter for slicing.The smaller sugarbeet crop means that slicing at most beet processors will not continue as long as in past yearswhich means that pile management systems may not be as stressed as they have been in recent years when
47、processors are needing to keep beets frozen through the spring.On the other hand,difficult harvest conditions throughout much of the sugarbeet-growing region in the fall resulted in some lower quality beets having to be processed during this campaign.While most damaged beets were segregated and stra
48、tegically processed to limit the impact on higher-quality beets and processing equipment,the impacts of this harvest are distinct from recent market history.The March forecast is based on a shrink rate that is higher than the previous month,but still low by historical standards.Cane sugar production
49、 is projected to be 3.713 million STRV,unchanged from the previous forecast.The forecast for each cane sugar-producing State is also unchanged:Florida remains Table 3:Beet sugar production projection calculation,2018/19 and 2019/202015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202019/20FebruaryMarchSugarbeet prod
50、uction(1,000 short tons)1/35,37136,88135,32533,28228,60028,600Sugarbeet shrink6.5%8.3%7.3%5.2%4.0%5.0%Sugarbeet sliced(1,000 short tons)33,06633,83432,74231,56127,45627,170Sugar extraction rate from slice14.58%13.72%15.18%14.77%14.58%14.27%Sugar from beets slice(1,000 STRV)2/4,8204,6434,9704,6604,00
