1、Insight ReportTop 10 Emerging Technologies 2019June 2019World Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744Email:contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.org 2019 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be rep
2、roduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019IntroductionThe top 10 emerging technologies for 20191.Bioplastics for a Circular Economy2.Social Robots3.Tiny Lenses for Minia
3、ture Devices4.Disordered Proteins as Drug Targets5.Smarter Fertilizers Can Reduce Environmental Contamination6.Collaborative Telepresence7.Advanced Food Tracking and Packaging8.Safer Nuclear Reactors9.DNA Data Storage10.Utility-Scale Storage of Renewable EnergyAcknowledgementsSteering CommitteeGuest
4、 AuthorsReport TeamProduction Team4567891011121314151616161616Contents4Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019IntroductionWorld-changing technologies that are poised to rattle the status quo One day soon an emerging technology highlighted in this report will allow you to virtually teleport to a distant si
5、te and actually feel the handshakes and hugs of fellow cyber-travellers.Also close to becoming commonplace:humanoid(and animaloid)robots designed to socialize with people;a system for pinpointing the source of a food-poisoning outbreak in seconds;minuscule lenses that will pave the way for diminutiv
6、e cameras and other devices;strong,biodegradable plastics that can be fashioned from otherwise useless plant wastes;DNA-based data storage systems that will reliably stow ginormous amounts of information;and much more.An international Steering Committee of leading technology experts engaged in an in
7、tense process to identify this years Top 10 Emerging Technologies.After soliciting nominations from additional experts around the globe,the Steering Committee evaluated dozens of proposals according to a number of criteria.Do the suggested technologies have the potential to provide major benefits to
8、 societies and economies?Could they alter established ways of doing things?Are they still in early stages of development but attracting a lot of interest from research labs,companies or investors?Are they likely to make significant inroads in the next several years?The committee sought added informa
9、tion where needed and honed the list in the course of four virtual meetings.We hope you enjoy the result.Mariette DiChristina,Editor-in-Chief,Scientific American,Executive Vice-President,Editorial and Publishing,Magazines,Nature Research Group of Springer NatureBernard S.MeyersonChief Innovation Off
10、icer,IBM Corporation5Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019The top 10 emerging technologies for 20191.Bioplastics for a Circular Economy2.Social Robots3.Tiny Lenses for Miniature Devices4.Disordered Proteins as Drug Targets5.Smarter Fertilizers Can Reduce Environmental Contamination6.Collaborative Telepr
11、esence7.Advanced Food Tracking and Packaging8.Safer Nuclear Reactors9.DNA Data Storage10.Utility-Scale Storage of Renewable Energy6Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019Our civilization is built on plastics.In 2014 alone,industry generated 311 metric tons,an amount expected to triple by 2050,according to
12、 the World Economic Forum.Yet less than 15%of it is recycled.Much of the rest is incinerated,sits in landfills or is abandoned in the environment where,being resistant to microbial digestion,it can persist for hundreds of years.Plastic debris accumulating in the ocean causes all kinds of problems,fr
13、om killing wildlife when mistakenly ingested to releasing toxic compounds.It can even enter our bodies via contaminated fish.Biodegradable plastics can ease these problems,contributing to the goal of a“circular”plastic economy in which plastics derive from and are converted back to biomass.Like stan
14、dard plastics derived from petrochemicals,biodegradable versions consist of polymers(long-chain molecules)that can be moulded while in their fluid state into a variety of forms.However,the options currently available mostly made from corn,sugar cane,or waste fats and oils generally lack the mechanic
15、al strength and visual characteristics of the standard kinds.Recent breakthroughs in producing plastics from cellulose or lignin(the dry matter in plants)promise to overcome those drawbacks.In an added boon for the environment,cellulose and lignin can be obtained from non-food plants,such as giant r
16、eed,grown on marginal land not suitable for food crops,or from waste wood and agricultural byproducts that would otherwise serve no function.Cellulose,the most abundant organic polymer on earth,is a major component of plant cell walls;lignin fills the spaces in those walls,providing strength and rig
17、idity.To make plastics from those substances,manufacturers must first break them into their building blocks,or monomers.Investigators have recently found ways to do so for both substances.The lignin work is particularly important because lignins monomers are composed of aromatic rings the chemical s
18、tructures that give some standard plastics their mechanical strength and other desirable features.Lignin does not dissolve in most solvents,but investigators have shown that certain environmentally friendly ionic liquids(which are composed largely of ions)can selectively separate it from wood and wo
19、ody plants.Genetically engineered enzymes similar to those in fungi and bacteria can then break the dissolved lignin into its components.Companies are building on these findings.For example,Chrysalix Technologies,a spin-off from Imperial College London,has developed a process that uses low-cost ioni
20、c liquids to separate cellulose and lignin from starting materials.A Finnish biotechnology company,MetGen Oy,produces a number of genetically engineered enzymes that cleave lignins of different origins into components needed for a wide range of applications.And Mobius(formerly Grow Bioplastics)is de
21、veloping lignin-based plastic pellets for use in biodegradable flower pots,agricultural mulches and other products.Many hurdles must be overcome before the new plastics can be widely used.One is cost;another is minimizing the amount of land and water used to produce them even if the lignin comes onl
22、y from waste,water is needed to convert it into plastic.As with any major challenge,the solutions will require a combination of measures,from regulations to voluntary changes in the way society uses and disposes of plastics.Still,the emerging methods for producing biodegradable plastic offer a perfe
23、ct example of how greener solvents and more effective biocatalysts can contribute to generating a circular economy in a major industry.1.Bioplastics for a Circular Economy Advanced solvents and enzymes are transforming woody wastes into better biodegradable plastics7Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019
24、In industry and medicine,robots routinely build,break down and inspect things;they also assist in surgery and dispense prescription drugs in pharmacies.Neither they nor“social”robots which are designed to engage with people and elicit an emotional connection behave like The Jetsons maid,Rosie,or oth
25、er beloved droids of fiction.Even so,expect social robots to become more sophisticated and prevalent in the next few years.The field seems to have reached a tipping point,with bots having greater interactive capabilities and performing more useful tasks than ever before.Like most robots,social robot
26、s use artificial intelligence(AI)to decide how to act on information received through cameras and other sensors.The ability to respond in ways that seem lifelike has been informed by research into such issues as how perceptions form,what constitutes social and emotional intelligence,and how people c
27、an deduce others thoughts and feelings.Advances in AI have enabled designers to translate such psychological and neuroscientific insights into algorithms that allow robots to recognize voices,faces and emotions,interpret speech and gestures,respond appropriately to complex verbal and non-verbal cues
28、,make eye contact,speak conversationally,and adapt to peoples needs by learning from feedback,rewards and criticisms.In consequence,social robots are filling an ever-expanding variety of roles.A 47-inch humanoid called Pepper(from SoftBank Robotics),for instance,recognizes faces and basic human emot
29、ions and engages in conversations via a touch screen in its“chest”.About 15,000 Peppers worldwide perform services such as hotel check-ins,airport customer service,shopping assistance and fast-food checkout.Temi(from Temi USA)and Loomo(Segway Robotics)are the next generation of personal assistants l
30、ike Amazon Echo and Google Home but mobile,providing a new level of functionality.Loomo,for instance,is not only a companion but also can transform on command into a scooter for transport.Social robots have particular appeal for assisting the worlds growing elderly population.The PARO Therapeutic Ro
31、bot(developed by Japans National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology),which looks like a cuddly baby seal,is meant to stimulate and reduce stress for those with Alzheimers disease and other patients in care facilities.It responds to its name by moving its head and it cries for pe
32、tting.Mabu(Catalia Health)engages patients,particularly the elderly,as a wellness aide,reminding them to take walks and medication and to call family members.Social robots are also gaining traction with consumers as toys.Early attempts to incorporate social behaviour in toys,such as Hasbros Baby Ali
33、ve and Sonys AIBO robotic dog,had limited success.But both are resurging and the most recent version of AIBO has sophisticated voice and gesture recognition,can be taught tricks and develops new behaviours based on previous interactions.Worldwide sales of consumer robots reached an estimated$5.6 bil
34、lion in 2018 and the market is expected to grow to$19 billion by the end of 2025,with more than 65 million robots sold a year.This trend may seem surprising given that multiple well-funded consumer robot companies,such as Jibo and Anki,have failed.But a wave of robots is lining up to take the place
35、of defunct robots,including BUDDY(Blue Frog Robotics),a big-eyed mobile device that plays games in addition to acting as a personal assistant and providing home automation and security.2.Social Robots Droid friends and assistants are penetrating deeper into our lives8Top 10 Emerging Technologies 201
36、9As phones,computers and other electronics have grown ever smaller,their optical components have stubbornly refused to shrink.Notably,it is hard to make tiny lenses with traditional glass-cutting and glass-curving techniques,and the elements in a glass lens often need to be stacked to focus light pr
37、operly.Engineers have recently figured out much of the physics behind much smaller,lighter alternatives known as metalenses.These lenses could allow for greater miniaturization of microscopes and other laboratory tools,as well as of consumer products,such as cameras,virtual reality headsets and opti
38、cal sensors for the internet of things.And they could enhance the functionality of optical fibres.A metalens consists of a flat surface,thinner than a micron,that is covered with an array of nanoscale objects,such as jutting pillars or drilled holes.As incident light hits these elements,many of its
39、properties change including its polarization,intensity,phase and direction of propagation.Researchers can precisely position the nanoscale objects to ensure that the light that exits the metalens has selected characteristics.What is more,metalenses are so thin that several can sit on top of one anot
40、her without a significant increase in size.Researchers have demonstrated optical devices such as spectrometers and polarimeters made from stacks of these flat surfaces.In a major breakthrough in 2018,researchers solved a problem called chromatic aberration.As white light passes through a typical len
41、s,rays of its varied wavelengths get deflected at different angles and thus focus at different distances from the lens.To fix this effect,engineers today need to layer lenses in a finicky alignment.Now,a single metalens can focus all the wavelengths of white light on to the same spot.Beyond creating
42、 this“achromatic”metalens,scientists have developed metalenses that correct other aberrations,such as coma and astigmatism,which cause image distortion and blurring.In addition to reducing size,metalenses should ultimately lower the cost of optical components because the diminutive lenses can be man
43、ufactured with the same equipment already used in the semiconductor industry.This feature raises the alluring prospect of fabricating,say,a tiny light sensors optical and electronic components side by side.For now,however,expenses are still high because it is difficult to precisely place nanoscale e
44、lements on a centimetre-scale chip.Other limitations also need addressing.So far,metalenses do not transmit light as efficiently as traditional lenses an important capability for such applications as full-colour imaging.In addition,they are too small to capture a large quantity of light,which means
45、that,for now,they are not suited to snapping high-quality photographs.Nevertheless,in the next few years the tiny lenses will probably make their way into smaller,easier-to-manufacture sensors,diagnostic tools such as endoscopic imaging devices,and optical fibres.Those potential applications are app
46、ealing enough to have attracted research support from government agencies and such companies as Samsung and Google.At least one start-up,Metalenz,expects to bring metalenses to market within the next few years.3.Tiny Lenses for Miniature Devices Thin,flat metalenses could replace bulky glass for man
47、ipulating light9Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2019Decades ago,scientists identified a particular class of proteins driving illnesses from cancer to neurodegenerative disease.These“intrinsically disordered proteins”(IDPs)looked different from the proteins with rigid structures that were more familiar
48、in cells.IDPs were shape-shifters,appearing as ensembles of components that constantly changed configurations.This loose structure allows the IDPs to bring together a wide variety of molecules at critical moments,such as during a cells response to stress.Less flexible proteins tend to have a more li
49、mited number of binding partners.When IDPs do not function properly,disease can ensue.Yet medical researchers have not been able to create treatments to eliminate or regulate malfunctioning IDPs.Indeed,many have been called undruggable.That is because most medicines now in use require stable structu
50、res to target and IDPs do not stay put long enough.Well-known disordered proteins that can contribute to cancer including c-Myc,p53 and K-RAS have proved too elusive.This picture,however,is starting to change.Scientists are using rigorous combinations of biophysics,computational power and a better u
