1、EXECUTIVE SUMMARYMARCH 2016DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION:THE NEW ERA OF GLOBAL FLOWSCopyright McKinsey&Company 2016In the 25 years since its founding,the McKinsey Global Institute(MGI)has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy.As the business and economics research arm of Mc
2、Kinsey&Company,MGI aims to provide leaders in the commercial,public,and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions.We are proud to be ranked the top private-sector think tank,according to the authoritative 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index,an annual
3、report issued by the University of Pennsylvania Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program at the Lauder Institute.MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management,employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business leaders.Our“micro-to-macro”methodology examines
4、microeconomic industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces affecting business strategy and public policy.MGIs in-depth reports have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries.Current research focuses on six themes:productivity and growth,natural resources,labor markets,t
5、he evolution of global financial markets,the economic impact of technology and innovation,and urbanization.Recent reports have assessed global flows;the economies of Brazil,Mexico,Nigeria,and Japan;Chinas digital transformation;Indias path from poverty to empowerment;affordable housing;the effects o
6、f global debt;and the economics of tackling obesity.MGI is led by three McKinsey&Company directors:RichardDobbs,JamesManyika,and JonathanWoetzel.MichaelChui,SusanLund,AnuMadgavkar,and JaanaRemes serve as MGI partners.Project teams are led by the MGI partners and a group of senior fellows,and include
7、 consultants from McKinsey&Companys offices around the world.These teams draw on McKinsey&Companys global network of partners and industry and management experts.In addition,leading economists,including Nobel laureates,act as research advisers.The partners of McKinsey&Company fund MGIs research;it i
8、s not commissioned by any business,government,or other institution.For further information about MGI and to download reports,please visit Manyika|San Francisco Susan Lund|Washington,DC Jacques Bughin|Brussels Jonathan Woetzel|ShanghaiKalin Stamenov|New York Dhruv Dhringra|New York MARCH 2016DIGITAL
9、GLOBALIZATION:THE NEW ERA OF GLOBAL FLOWSIN BRIEF DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION:THE NEW ERA OF GLOBAL FLOWS The rapidly growing flows of international trade and finance that characterized the 20th century have flattened or declined since 2008.Yet globalization is not moving into reverse.Instead digital flow
10、s are soaringtransmitting information,ideas,and innovation around the world and broadening participation in the global economy.The world is more interconnected than ever.For the first time in history,emerging economies are counterparts on more than half of global trade flows,and South-South trade is
11、 the fastest-growing type of connection.While flows of goods and finance have lost momentum,used cross-border bandwidth has grown 45 times larger since 2005.It is projected to grow by another nine times in the next five years as digital flows of commerce,information,searches,video,communication,and
12、intracompany traffic continue to surge.Digital platforms change the economics of doing business across borders,bringing down the cost of international interactions and transactions.They create markets and user communities with global scale,providing businesses with a huge base of potential customers
13、 and effective ways to reach them.Small businesses worldwide are becoming“micro-multinationals”by using digital platforms such as eBay,Amazon,Facebook,and Alibaba to connect with customers and suppliers in other countries.Even the smallest enterprises can be born global:86 percent of tech-based star
14、tups we surveyed report some type of cross-border activity.The ability of small businesses to reach new markets supports economic growth everywhere.Individuals are participating in globalization directly,using digital platforms to learn,find work,showcase their talent,and build personal networks.Som
15、e 900 million people have international connections on social media,and 360 million take part in cross-border e-commerce.Over a decade,global flows have raised world GDP by at least 10 percent;this value totaled$7.8 trillion in 2014 alone.Data flows now account for a larger share of this impact than
16、 global trade in goods.Global flows generate economic growth primarily by raising productivity,and countries benefit from both inflows and outflows.The MGI Connectedness Index offers a comprehensive look at how countries participate in inflows and outflows of goods,services,finance,people,and data.S
17、ingapore tops the latest rankings,followed by the Netherlands,the United States,and Germany.China has surged from No.25 to No.7.Although more nations are participating,global flows remain concentrated among a small set of leading countries.The gaps between the leaders and the rest of the world are c
18、losing very slowly,but catch-up growth represents a major opportunity for lagging countries.Some economies could grow by 50 percent or more over the long term by accelerating participation.Many companies grew more complex and inefficient as they expanded across borders.But digital technologies can t
19、ame complexity and create leaner models for going global.This is a moment for companies to rethink their organizational structures,products,assets,and competitors.Countries cannot afford to shut themselves off from global flows,but narrow export strategies miss the real value of globalization:the fl
20、ow of ideas,talent,and inputs that spur innovation and productivity.Digital globalization makes policy choices even more complex.Value chains are shifting,new hubs are emerging,and economic activity is being transformed.This transition creates new openings for countries to carve out profitable roles
21、 in the global economy.Those opportunities will favor locations that build the infrastructure,institutions,and business environments that their companies and citizens need to participate fully.Increase in world GDP,worth$7.8T in 2014GDP increase from data flows,larger impact than goods tradeGlobal f
22、lows increase economic growth 10%$2.8TPotential GDP boost for some countries by increasing participation in global flows50%Digital technologies are changing how business is done across borders and broadening participationLarge multinationalsAttain truly global scale with new markets and suppliers Ne
23、w strategies for products,assets,organizationIndividualsNew ways to work,learn,and communicate across borders 900M have international connections on social mediaSMEsUse digital platforms to find customers and suppliers abroad50M on Facebook,10M on Alibaba,2M on AmazonStartups80%of tech-based startup
24、s are“born global”Foreign customers,financing,suppliers from day oneGlobal flows of trade and finance are flattening,while data flows are soaring19802014DATATRADEFINANCE45Xgrowth in data flows 20052014The new era of digital globalization Getty ImagesEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Somewhere in Kenya,a girl logs o
25、n for a personalized math lesson from California-based Khan Academy.Thousands of Syrian refugees rely on Facebook updates for the latest information to guide their journey through Europe.A multinational energy giant launches plans to use sensors on 4,000 oil wells around the world to monitor product
26、ion remotely.A manufacturer in Australia buys components from a Chinese supplier on Alibaba,and a clinical trial in India transmits patient data to US pharmaceutical researchers.The world has become more intricately connected than ever before.Back in 1990,the total value of global flows of goods,ser
27、vices,and finance amounted to$5trillion,or 24percent of world GDP.There were some 435million international tourist arrivals,and the public Internet was in its infancy.Fast forward to 2014:some$30trillion worth of goods,services,and finance,equivalent to 39percent of GDP,was exchanged across the worl
28、ds borders.International tourist arrivals soared above 1.1billion.And the Internet is now a global network instantly connecting billions of people and countless companies around the world.Flows of physical goods and finance were the hallmarks of the 20th-century global economy,but today those flows
29、have flattened or declined.Twenty-first-century globalization is increasingly defined by flows of data and information.This phenomenon now underpins virtually all cross-border transactions within traditional flows while simultaneously transmitting a valuable stream of ideas and innovation around the
30、 world.1 Digitization changes the economics of globalization in several ways.As digital platforms become global in scope,they are driving down the cost of cross-border communications and transactions,allowing businesses to connect with customers and suppliers in any country.Globalization was once fo
31、r large multinational corporations,but platforms reduce the minimum scale needed to go global,enabling small business and entrepreneurs around the world to participate.As a result,new types of competitors can emerge rapidly from any corner of the world,increasing pressure on industry incumbents.More
32、 than ever before,companies and countries cannot afford to ignore the opportunities beyond their own borders.Our econometric research indicates that global flows of goods,foreign direct investment,and data have increased current global GDP by roughly 10percent compared to what would have occurred in
33、 a world without any flows.This value was equivalent to$7.8trillion in 2014 alone.Data flows account for$2.8trillion of this effect,exerting a larger impact on growth than traditional goods flows.This is a remarkable development given that the worlds trade networks have developed over centuries but
34、cross-border data flows were nascent just 15years ago.1 This research builds on the 2014 McKinsey Global Institute report Global flows in a digital age:How trade,finance,people,and data connect the world economy.The shift to a more digital form of globalization changes who is participating,how busin
35、ess is done across borders,and where the economic benefits are flowing.2McKinsey Global InstituteExecutive summary Global flows support growth by raising productivity and creating more efficient markets with truly global scale.But not all countries are making the most of this potential.Our updated M
36、GI Connectedness Index ranks countries on inflows and outflows of goods,services,finance,people,and data.Advanced economies are still the most globally connected.Although more developing countries are deepening their participation,they are narrowing the gap with the leading advanced economies only v
37、ery slowly over time.Accelerating catch-up growth is a major opportunity for the developing world.Our 2014 report showed that countries in the center of trade networks derive more benefit from goods flows than countries with few connections.But our new research shows that data flows offer stronger e
38、conomic benefits to countries on the periphery of the worlds digital networks.The new age of digital globalization also poses challenges.Companies can enter new markets,but they are exposed to pricing pressures,aggressive global competitors,and disruptive digital business models.Data has to be prote
39、cted against cybercrime.Students can educate themselves online from anywhere on earth,but their view into other societies can heighten their impatience with bleak job prospects at home.Social media creates global communities but also allows networks of extremists to connect.It will take more interna
40、tional coordination to deal with many of these issues.Todays version of globalization is vastly more complex and fast-paced,but connectedness can be a path to growth.A NEW ERA OF DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION HAS BEGUN The world has never been more deeply connected by commerce,communication,and travel than
41、it is today.But the pattern of globalization is shifting.Trade was once dominated by tangible goods and was largely confined to advanced economies and their large multinational companies.Today global data flows are surging,and digital platforms allow more countries and smaller enterprises to partici
42、pate.This shift has far-reaching implications.After a 20-year period of growing roughly twice as fast as the world economy,global flows of goods,services,and finance hit roughly$30trillion in 2007,peaking at 53percent of global GDP.But this rapid expansion has stopped in its tracks.Growth in global
43、goods trade has flattened,financial flows have fallen sharply,and trade in services has posted only modest growth.These flows have finally regained their pre-recession levels in terms of dollar value,but they are now just 39percent of world GDP(ExhibitE1).Many observers point to this trend as eviden
44、ce that globalization has stopped.2 We have a different view:globalization has instead entered a new era defined by data flows that transmit information,ideas,and innovation.Digital platforms create more efficient and transparent global markets in which far-flung buyers and sellers find each other w
45、ith a few clicks.The near-zero marginal costs of digital communications and transactions open new possibilities for conducting business across borders on a massive scale.2 See,for example,David Smick,“Could globalization crack up?”International Economy,fall 2012;Joshua Cooper Ramo,“Globalism goes ba
46、ckward,”Fortune,November 20,2012;and Jeffrey Rothfeder,“The great unraveling of globalization,”Washington Post,April 24,2015.Soaring cross-border data flows now generate more economic value than traditional flows of traded goods.3McKinsey Global InstituteDigital globalization:The new era of global f
47、lowsTraditional flows of goods,services,and finance have flattened For two decades,the worlds trade in goods(including commodities,finished goods,and intermediate inputs)grew roughly twice as fast as global GDP as major multinationals expanded their supply chains and established new bases of product
48、ion in countries with low-cost labor.Global trade in goods soared from 13.8percent of world GDP in 1986 to 26.6percent in 2008 on the eve of the Great Recession.After a sharp decline and short-lived rebound,however,the goods trade has been growing more slowly than world GDP in recent years,puzzling
49、economists and business leaders alike.Some of this decline is cyclical.Our analysis suggests that weak demand and plummeting prices for commodities account for nearly three-quarters of the decline in trade.But trade in both finished and intermediate manufactured goods has also declined,thanks to sev
50、eral structural forces.The makers of many finished goods are beginning to place less importance on labor costs and more on speed to market and non-labor costs.As a result,some production is moving closer to end consumers.Trade is also declining for many intermediate goods such as chemicals,paper,tex
