1、?2011?8?23?000776?2011?30.91?32.76?2011?7.5%?1.8%?2011?32.71?9.98%?0.48%?13.43?0.54?18.09%?7.48%?2011?15.45?10.52%?6.77?1.77%?2011?1.38?187.89%?3?2010?2011?4.33?2010?7.68?2011?1.36?2010?4.16%?4.2%?IPO?2011-2013?2200?/2500?/2900?15%/5%/5%?4.4%/4.8%/4.9%?41%/41%/41%?2011-2013?EPS?1.26/1.36/1.56?BVPS?8
2、.47/9.55/10.84?2011?26?PE?32.76?2011?3.87?PB?/?2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E?(?)10,470.06 10,218.61 7,473.23 8,069.37 9,310.61?YoY%-2.40-26.87 7.98 15.38?(?)4,689.91 4,027.00 3,163.99 3,400.83 3,918.48?YoY%-14.13-21.43 7.49 15.22?(?)1.95 1.62 1.26 1.36 1.56?(?8.19 7.74 8.47 9.55 10.84?%?32.99 22.51 15
3、.57 15.05 15.33 PE 15.85 19.08 24.49 22.79 19.78 PB 3.78 3.99 3.65 3.24 2.85?2011?8?22?021-68761846?S1010511030002?300?2348.21?/?2507.05/774.94?12?/?60.00?/29.69?1?-15.71%?6?-40.99%?-30.16%12?335.28?000776?2011?7.5%?1.8%.1?.2?.3?.3?.6?.6?.7?1?2010Q1-2011Q2?.1?2?2010Q1-2011Q2?.1?3?.1?4?.2?5?.2?6?2010
4、Q1-2011Q2?.3?7?2011Q1-Q2?.3?8?2010Q1-2011Q2?.4?9?.4?10?2011?.4?11?.4?12?2010Q1-2011Q2?.5?13?2011?IPO?.5?14?.5?15?.5?16?2011?.5?17?2011?.5?000776?2011?1?2011?.1?2?IPO?.2?3?2011?.3?4?2007-2011H1?.4?5?2010?.6?6?2011-2013?.7?7?2011?PE?PB?Wind?.7?000776?2011?2011?8?23?1?7.5%?1.8%?2011?7.5%?1.8%?2011?32.7
5、1?9.98%?0.48%?32.55?13.43?0.54?18.09%?7.48%?14.52?2011?6?194.98?7.78?2011?2.4%?2011?15.45?10.52%?6.77?1.77%?1?2010Q1-2011Q2?19.7816.5524.9240.9317.2615.450.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0010Q110Q210Q310Q411Q111Q2?2?2010Q1-2011Q2?8.707.7010.9612.916.666.770.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0010Q110Q210Q310Q
6、411Q111Q2?2007-2010H1?2011?56.44%?18.46?11.72%?4.09?57.93%?4.33?39.53%?11.62%?3?50.52%67.13%71.18%53.14%56.44%2.81%3.37%2.14%7.81%12.51%31.35%13.92%15.41%25.49%13.25%3.07%10.36%6.78%7.79%10.16%0%20%40%60%80%100%20072008200920102011H1?1?2011?10Q1-Q2 11Q1-Q2?20.91?18.46-11.72%?2.59 4.09 57.93%?0.49 0.
7、44-9.71%?+?3.11 4.33 39.53%?3.86 3.32-13.85%?32.55?32.71 0.48%?000776?2011?2011?8?23?2?10Q1-Q2 11Q1-Q2?13.93?*15.63 12.17%?/?0.428 0.478 11.62%?14.52?13.43-7.48%?*?2011?2011?1.38?187.89%?2010?1.23%?2011?3.24%?4?0.481.380.00.51.01.52010H12011H1?5?0.51%1.23%3.24%0%1%2%3%4%200920102011H1?2011?2011?3?20
8、10?2?IPO?2010-3-16 2011-5-18 IPO 0.2 1.01 4.06 2013-5-18?2009-9-27 2011-4-7 IPO 0.15 1.24 7.01 2012-4-7?2009-12-1 2011-1-7 IPO 0.08 0.49 5.13 2012-12-7?2009-7-24 2010-11-23 IPO 0.15 1.01 5.73 2012-7-24?2009-8-15 2010-8-25 IPO 0.32 1.4 3.37 2012-9-16?2009-3-27 2010-8-3 IPO 0.04 0.25 5.25 2011-8-3?Chi
9、naVenture?000776?2011?2011?8?23?3?2011?2011?4.33?2010?7.68?2011?1.36?6?2010Q1-2011Q2?2.910.197.684.022.971.360.002.004.006.008.0010.0010Q110Q210Q310Q411Q111Q2?+?2010?4?7?2011Q1-Q2?1.78%4.96%0.13%1.72%0.81%2.38%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%10Q110Q210Q310Q411Q111Q2?3?2011?000562.SZ?2.59 61.36 4.22%600999.SH?6.74 220
10、.81 3.05%000728.SZ?1.37 45.82 2.99%000776.SZ?4.33 171.59 2.53%000686.SZ?0.33 15.07 2.16%600369.SH?1.05 58.79 1.78%000783.SZ?1.46 91.22 1.60%601688.SH?1.82 196.48 0.92%?=?+?2011?4.2%?2010?4.16%?2011?0.0887%?0.0858%?3.25%?2011?20.16%?000776?2011?2011?8?23?4?8?2010Q1-2011Q2?12.4711.7611.8518.2210.208.2
11、60.005.0010.0015.0020.0010Q110Q210Q310Q411Q111Q2?(?9?0200040006000800010-0110-0310-0510-0710-0910-1111-0111-0311-053.80%3.90%4.00%4.10%4.20%4.30%4.40%?Wind?10?2011?0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%09Q109Q209Q309Q410Q110Q210Q310Q411Q111Q20%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%?11?0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%09Q109Q209Q309Q410Q110Q210Q310Q41
12、1Q111Q20%10%20%30%40%?IPO?2011?IPO?39.15?2010?20%?2010?3.96%?2011?2.44%?2010?1.23%?2011?3.24%?2011?4?2007-2011H1?2007 2008 2009 2010 2011H1?32.58 36.51 39.24 194.42 39.15?129.64 52.91 30.50 14.51 13.96?0.00 0.00 0.00 34.70 83.46?75.00 19.50 0.00 0.00 0.00?26.00 93.90 44.00 81.50 125.50?Wind?000776?2
13、011?2011?8?23?5?12?2010Q1-2011Q2?1.301.292.173.221.542.550.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.5010Q110Q210Q310Q411Q111Q2?13?2011?IPO?0.73%3.53%1.94%3.96%2.44%0%1%2%3%4%5%20072008200920102011H1IPO?Wind?2011?2010?113.17?92.49?2010?63?74.43?14?0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.020072008200920102011H1?15?0.0020.0040
14、.0060.0080.0020072008200920102011H1?2011?0.29?2011?2011?6?16.77?6.12%?2011?0.48?6?IPO?3?1?16?2011?0.360.120.110.250.150.290.000.100.200.300.4010Q110Q210Q310Q411Q111Q2?17?2011?1.171.741.330.340.590.480.00.51.01.52.02010H12010H22011H1?000776?2011?2011?8?23?6?2010?102.19?40.27?54.30?7.98?5?6?180?5?2010
15、?2010?000776.SZ?194.01 102.19 40.27 54.30 7.98 600837.SH?444.67 97.68 36.86 48.64 9.20 600030.SH?704.35 277.95 113.11 78.09 29.03 601688.SH?328.82 89.00 34.25 55.16 14.75 600999.SH?239.76 64.86 32.29 35.79 12.24 601788.SH?227.16 50.54 22.00 27.48 4.80 000562.SZ?72.99 33.05 13.06 17.25 4.67 000783.SZ
16、?95.29 31.99 12.83 17.53 1.69 601901.SH?86.36 30.88 12.48 17.93 2.43 000728.SZ?149.80 22.42 9.25 12.26 2.49 600369.SH?111.23 19.36 8.05 7.86 3.54 601377.SH?83.96 27.38 7.87 12.35 2.35 000686.SZ?34.65 17.00 5.27 11.10 1.45 000750.SZ?25.47 18.95 4.57 11.23 1.32 002500.SZ?61.84 14.96 4.39 8.68 2.39 600
17、109.SH?30.19 16.45 4.38 8.01 6.13 601099.SH?19.59 6.75 2.04 4.63 1.22?Wind?50%?000776?2011?2011?8?23?7?2011-2013?6?2011-2013?2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E?2239 2292 2200 2500 2900?%?4.73 4.93 4.30 4.30 4.30?%?-22.3-31.1-15.0-5.0-5.0?IPO?2,022 4,911 4,175 4,592 5,051?IPO?%?1.9 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0?IPO?%?5.0
18、 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.5?%?13.7 6.4 4.4 4.8 4.9?/?%?41.3 44.8 46.1 46.1 46.1?/?%?5.1 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.0?/?%?36.1 40.8 41.0 41.0 41.0?%?23.1 26.2 22.5 22.5 22.5?Wind?2011-2013?EPS?1.26?1.36?1.56?BVPS?8.47?9.55?10.84?2011?8?22?2011?PE?24.49?PB?3.65?2011?PE?16?PB?1.54?PE?22.3?PB?2.34?ROE?20%?2011?26?PE?32.76?2011
19、?3.87?PB?7?2011?PE?PB?Wind?PE?11E?PB?11E?600837.SH?14.81 1.33 600999.SH?15.93 1.62 600030.SH?15.37 1.58 601688.SH?18.18 1.63 601788.SH?15.73 1.53?16.00 1.54 600109.SH?22.48 3.41 600369.SH?28.95 2.06 601901.SH?37.63 2.47 000562.SZ?15.97 2.59 000686.SZ?25.48 3.06 000728.SZ?19.90 1.18 000783.SZ?17.11 1
20、.57 000750.SZ?20.55 3.36 002500.SZ?36.77 3.22 601377.SH?32.52 3.55?25.74 2.65?22.30 2.34?Wind?1?2011?8?22?2?000776?2011?2011?8?23?8?2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E?20092010 2011E 2012E2013E?10,470 10,219 7,4738,0699,311?7338648149 35368 4264150588?8,135 6,812 5,2865,8046,491?1082621819 15372 1845822115?
21、7,453 5,430 3,9004,2104,639?923411317 10185 1120412884?224 798 8629971,161?0 0 0 0 0?59 85 102132172?23972600 2860 31463461?710 796 8178241,240?50746309 7570 83279576?+?1,613 2,605 1,3641,4351,571?0 0 0 0 0?11 26 0 0 0?16822441 2800 32203703?0-3-4-5-6?835 679 747 822 904?12 9 10 12 15?903 2633 2896
22、31863504?4,323 4,578 3,4473,7224,294?10433695947 77798 91004106736?530 395 374403466?0 0 0 0 0?3,783 4,174 3,0643,3083,817?0 0 0 0 0?7 6 7 8 9?0 0 0 0 0?3 2 3 3 3?8048369129 48390 5806869682?6,147 5,641 4,0264,3475,016?16102075 2282 25102762?270 128 130140150?50015312 5843 64287070?9 81 80 90 100?87
23、09376515 56516 6700679514?6,407 5,688 4,0764,3975,066?20002507 2507 25072507?1,482 1,489 9179891,140?1014952 952 10521202?4,925 4,198 3,1593,4083,926?18781943 1995 20502114?235 171-5 7 8?31244102 4870 56956646?4,690 4,027 3,1643,4013,918?0 0 0 0 0?83689915 11006 1273514789?(?)1.95 1.62 1.261.361.56?
24、1637419401 21240 2395027168?(?)1.95 1.62 1.261.361.56?869 30 42 48 54?1724319431 21282 2399827222?2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E?20092010 2011E 2012E2013E?%?(?)2239 2292 220025002900?45.3-2.4-26.9 8.0 15.4?%?4.73 4.93 4.304.304.30?45.4-8.2-28.6 8.0 15.4?%?-22.3-31.1-15.0-5.0-5.0?48.8-14.1-21.4 7.5 15.2
25、?IPO?2,022 4,911 4,1754,5925,051?%?IPO?%?1.9 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0?58.755.2 53.9 53.953.9?IPO?%?5.0 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.5?44.839.4 42.3 42.142.1?%?13.7 6.4 4.4 4.8 4.9?%?33.022.5 15.6 15.115.3?/?%?41.3 44.8 46.146.146.1?5.9 4.0 3.6 4.0 4.0?/?%?5.1 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.0?%?/?%?36.1 40.8 41.041.041.0?(?)6.3 7.7 10.4 9.8
26、 9.2?%?23.1 26.2 22.522.522.5?31.7321.62 31.13 25.0025.00?Analyst Certification?i?ii?The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views
27、of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.?/?(?)?(1)?(2)?/?/?2011?300?20%?300?5%?20%?300?-10%?5%?300?10%?300?10%
28、?300?-10%?10%?1.?6?6?300?2.?6?300?300?10%?48?100125?1568?22?200122?8?518048?1?26?Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.?-?This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commissi
29、on.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder.?Z20374000?1934?15a-6(a)(2)?15a-6?
