1、第 43 卷第 1 期2023 年 1 月Vol.43,No.1Jan.,2023环境科学学报Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae广州逐时臭氧污染气象条件指数研究及应用黄俊1,2,廖碧婷3,王春林2,4,*,刘文君1,刘霞11.广州市气象台,广州 5114302.广东省环珠江口气候环境与空气质量变化野外科学观测研究站,广州 5102753.广州市黄埔区气象局,广州 5105304.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),珠海 519082摘要:利用20162020年近地面臭氧和气象逐时数据,基于相关性分析和概率统计方法,在分析臭氧敏感气象要素特征基础上,综合各气象因子对臭
2、氧生成贡献大小,建立了广州逐时臭氧污染气象条件指数模型及等级标准,并进行了预报及检验.结果表明:高浓度臭氧主要发生在高温低湿情况下,臭氧浓度及臭氧超标率均随着气温的升高而增加,当气温高于30 时,臭氧浓度随温度的变化升高更为明显;臭氧浓度和超标率随着相对湿度的升高而逐渐降低,其中,当40%RH50%时,臭氧浓度及超标率最高;当风速在12 ms-1时,臭氧超标率最大.对所建立的广州本地化的逐时臭氧污染气象条件指数模型和分级标准进行了检验评估,结果显示,臭氧污染气象条件指数等级越高,臭氧浓度和超标率也越大,说明该指数能够较好地表征臭氧污染天气的强弱.基于欧洲中心高分辨率数值预报产品,根据污染气象条
3、件指数模型,对广州3种不同天气类型下的指数预报进行对比验证,预报效果较好,说明该指数对臭氧污染天气预报有较好的指导意义.关键词:臭氧污染;气象条件指数(MCI);气象要素;天气类型;预报;广州文章编号:0253-2468(2023)01-0063-13 中图分类号:X51,X16 文献标识码:AMeteorological condition index(MCI)for hourly ozone pollution in Guangzhou:Development and applicationHUANG Jun1,2,LIAO Biting3,WANG Chunlin2,4,*,LIU We
4、njun1,LIU Xia11.Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 5114302.Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary,Guangzhou 5102753.Guangzhou Huangpu District Meteorological Bureau,Guangzhou 5105304.Guangdong Provin
5、cial Laboratory of Southern Marine Science and Engineering(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519082Abstract:A Meteorological Condition Index(MCI)model and its grade standards for ozone pollution forecast in Guangzhou was established based on the correlation and probability statistics method by using surface ozone conc
6、entration and the hourly meteorological data in Guangzhou through 2016 to 2020.During the development of the MCI,ozone sensitive elements,including various meteorological factors inducing ozone pollution,were fully investigated on the basis of the characteristic of ozone pollution in Guangzhou.The M
7、CI has been validated and applied to the ozone pollution forecast in Guangzhou.The results show that:High concentration of ozone mainly occurs under high temperature and low humidity.Both Ozone concentration and Ozone exceedance rate increase with temperature rising.And the increase of Ozone concent
8、ration with temperature is more obvious especially when the temperature is higher than 30.Ozone concentration and its exceeding rate gradually decrease with the increase of relative humidity.When 40%RH0.1 mm),臭氧浓度总体上是随着降水量级的增加而升高,而在10 mmR20 mm出现了0.6%的超标率.出现此种现象的原因可能是在降水比较大时的天气通常都是对流活动比较强烈的夏季,闷热的白天也容
9、易引发强烈的对流性天气,由于臭氧基础浓度较高,降水还不至于将近地面的臭氧冲刷干净,使得有强降水时段的臭氧还维持较高的浓度水平,但总体上,出现降水时,是不利于臭氧浓度的生成的;另一方面,可能是 由于强对流天气情况下平流层中的臭氧向下传输到地面使得地面监测到的臭氧浓度有所增加.3.3气象因子联合对臭氧污染的影响统计发现,除气温以外单个气象因子对臭氧超标率的影响较小,主要是因为臭氧超标受气温影响最大.为了突出各气象因子的影响程度,考虑将气温和其他因子联合一起分类,分析同一温度区间下各因子对 图2不同气温、相对湿度、风速、风向、雨量条件下臭氧小时平均浓度及超标概率Fig.2The hourly ave
10、rage concentration of ozone and the probability of exceeding the standard under the conditions of different air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,wind direction and rainfall67环境科学学报43 卷臭氧污染的影响.如同等温度条件下,不同的相对湿度对臭氧超标概率有明显差别(表2).气温在3035 且相对湿度在40%50%最适宜臭氧生成,超标概率最高达50%.湿度越大超标率越小,湿度大于80%,不利于臭氧的生成,超
11、标概率小于2.5%.通过气温和相对湿度组合分类,可以分析出湿度和温度对臭氧超标率的影响.风速对于臭氧的影响,在不同的温度等级下表现不一样.在30 以下,风速的变化几乎不会引起臭氧 污染的形成,超标率均小于2%;当温度大于30 时,风速增加会减少臭氧的超标率;当气温高于35,风速在12 ms-1区间时,臭氧超标率最高为48.99%,而当风速高于3 ms-1时,臭氧超标率将至4.55%.表2不同气温和相对湿度、风速、风向、雨量联合分类下臭氧超标率Table 2Ozone over-standard rate under different combined classification of ai
12、r temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,wind direction and rainfall气象要素气温相对湿度风速风向降水0,40%)40%,50%)50%,60%)60%,70%)70%,80%)80%,90%)90%,100%0,1)ms-11,2)ms-12,3)ms-13,4)ms-14 ms-1N 0,11.25)NNENEENEEESESESSESSSWSWWSWWWNWNWNNWN 348.75,3600.0,0.1)mm0.1,10.0)mm10.0,20.0)mm20.0,25.0)mm25mm臭氧超标率0,22)0.03%0
13、.30%0.18%0.11%0.05%0.02%0.04%1.08%0.15%0.03%22,25)0.30%3.92%1.23%1.03%0.63%0.34%0.03%0.13%0.36%0.35%0.41%0.18%0.96%0.41%1.20%0.27%0.89%0.38%0.22%0.14%0.34%1.47%25,30)1.19%10.58%11.85%9.78%2.25%0.64%0.20%0.68%1.54%1.21%0.83%0.31%0.57%0.58%0.82%1.16%0.77%1.93%1.35%1.87%1.74%2.23%1.78%0.84%2.14%2.02%1.
14、32%0.47%0.74%1.33%0.07%30,33)4.98%34.78%35.79%11.25%3.49%1.73%2.44%10.34%8.14%6.05%0.85%0.90%4.29%5.29%9.00%2.63%3.43%5.59%4.58%2.07%2.78%2.70%8.70%3.57%6.38%7.89%12.00%10.61%9.26%5.07%33,35)16.77%40.00%50.00%15.48%12.04%30.00%42.86%25.61%13.92%4.35%2.36%25.00%29.63%19.23%14.55%6.98%9.09%5.80%6.11%6
15、.61%11.11%12.73%22.58%31.91%22.06%32.81%34.15%12.24%16.82%35 34.75%34.88%35.11%25.00%39.13%48.99%20.29%4.55%5.26%27.27%40.00%54.55%40.00%50.00%66.67%50.00%25.00%58.33%27.27%25.00%31.25%29.17%41.67%24.44%30.23%40.74%34.75%注:表中空白表示未出现过相关的数据.681 期黄俊等:广州逐时臭氧污染气象条件指数研究及应用风向对于臭氧超标率的影响也与温度密切相关.温度在30 以下,风向对
16、臭氧超标率的影响很小,超标率在2.2%以内;当气温增加至33 时,偏北风、偏西风有利于臭氧超标率的增加,偏南风及偏东风可减少臭氧的超标概率.当气温在35 以上时,各个风向下臭氧超标率都在24%以上,其中,偏东北风至偏南风超标率更高一些.雨量对臭氧超标概率的影响不明显.出现降水天气时,很少超标,1 h累计雨量在0.1 mm以上,臭氧超标率很小,在2%以内,而这个并不是因降水导致的臭氧超标,更多的是晴热天气下臭氧浓度很高,晴热天气容易发生强对流天气,出现降水时臭氧没有得到及时的清除,还存在较高的浓度而出现的超标.从表中还可以 看到,无降水的臭氧超标率几乎等同于单纯考虑气温时的超标率,因此,在进行污染气象条件评分时不考虑降水的因素.此外出现降水后通常气温降低,相对湿度较高.3.4臭氧污染气象条件评分体系建立气温基础分(TS):按照臭氧超标率大小进行评分,超标率越高,评分愈大.超标率小于1%为0分,超过1%定为1分,之后每增加5%增加1分,根据各等级气温下臭氧的超标率大小,给出气温基础分(表3).气温在25 以下,臭氧超标率E小于1%,都为0分;当25 T30 时,臭氧超标率 E=1.2%,评