1、Designation:E136915Standard Guide forSelecting Techniques for Treating Uncertainty and Risk inthe Economic Evaluation of Buildings and BuildingSystems1This standard is issued under the fixed designation E1369;the number immediately following the designation indicates the year oforiginal adoption or,
2、in the case of revision,the year of last revision.A number in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval.Asuperscript epsilon()indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.1.Scope1.1 This guide covers techniques for treating uncertainty ininput values to an economic ana
3、lysis of a building investmentproject.It also recommends techniques for evaluating the riskthat a project will have a less favorable economic outcome thanwhat is desired or expected.21.2 The techniques include breakeven analysis,sensitivityanalysis,risk-adjusted discounting,the mean-variance criteri
4、onand coefficient of variation,decision analysis,simulation,andstochastic dominance.1.3 The techniques can be used with economic methods thatmeasure economic performance,such as life-cycle costanalysis,net benefits,the benefit-to-cost ratio,internal rate ofreturn,and payback.2.Referenced Documents2.
5、1 ASTM Standards:3E631 Terminology of Building ConstructionsE833 Terminology of Building EconomicsE917 Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of Buildingsand Building SystemsE964 Practice for Measuring Benefit-to-Cost and Savings-to-Investment Ratios for Buildings and Building SystemsE1057 Practice
6、 for Measuring Internal Rate of Return andAdjusted Internal Rate of Return for Investments inBuildings and Building SystemsE1074 Practice for Measuring Net Benefits and Net Savingsfor Investments in Buildings and Building SystemsE1121 Practice for Measuring Payback for Investments inBuildings and Bu
7、ilding SystemsE1185 Guide for Selecting Economic Methods for Evaluat-ing Investments in Buildings and Building SystemsE1946 Practice for Measuring Cost Risk of Buildings andBuilding Systems and Other Constructed ProjectsE2204 Guide for Summarizing the Economic Impacts ofBuilding-Related Projects2.2
8、Adjuncts:Discount Factor Tables Adjunct to Practices E917,E964,E1057,E1074,and E112143.Terminology3.1 DefinitionsFor definitions of general terms related tobuilding construction used in this guide,refer to TerminologyE631;and for general terms related to building economics,refer to Terminology E833.
9、4.Summary of Guide4.1 This guide identifies related ASTM standards and ad-juncts.It describes circumstances when measuring uncertaintyand risk may be helpful in economic evaluations of buildinginvestments.This guide defines uncertainty,risk exposure,andrisk attitude.It presents nonprobabilistic and
10、probabilistictechniques for measuring uncertainty and risk exposure.Thisguide describes briefly each technique,gives the formula forcalculating a measure where appropriate,illustrates the tech-niques with a case example,and summarizes its advantagesand disadvantages.4.2 Since there is no best techni
11、que for measuring uncer-tainty and risk in every economic evaluation,this guideconcludes with a discussion of how to select the appropriatetechnique for a particular problem.4.3 This guide describes in detail how risk exposure can bemeasured by probability functions and distribution functions1This g
12、uide is under the jurisdiction of ASTM Committee E06 on Performanceof Buildings and is the direct responsibility of Subcommittee E06.81 on BuildingEconomics.Current edition approved Oct.1,2015.Published October 2015.Originallyapproved in 1990.Last previous edition approved in 2011 as E1369 11.DOI:10
13、.1520/E1369-15.2For an extensive overview of techniques for treating risk and uncertainty,seeMarshall,H.E.,Techniques for Treating Uncertainty and Risk in the EconomicEvaluation of Building Investments,National Institute of Standards and Technology,Special Publication 757,1988.3For referenced ASTM s
14、tandards,visit the ASTM website,www.astm.org,orcontact ASTM Customer Service at serviceastm.org.For Annual Book of ASTMStandards volume information,refer to the standards Document Summary page onthe ASTM website.4Available from ASTM International Headquarters.Order Adjunct No.ADJE091703.Original adj
15、unct produced in 1984.Copyright ASTM International,100 Barr Harbor Drive,PO Box C700,West Conshohocken,PA 19428-2959.United States1(see Annex A1).It also describes how risk attitude can beincorporated using utility theory and other approaches(seeAnnex A2).5.Significance and Use5.1 Investments in lon
16、g-lived projects such as buildings arecharacterized by uncertainties regarding project life,operationand maintenance costs,revenues,and other factors that affectproject economics.Since future values of these variable factorsare generally not known,it is difficult to make reliableeconomic evaluations.5.2 The traditional approach to project investment analysishas been to apply economic methods of project evaluation tobest-guess estimates of project input variables as if they werecertain estimates