1、水利水电技术(中英文)第 54 卷 2023 年第 6 期Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Vol.54 No.6程书波,李冲,岳颖,等.19612020 年我国中部地区气温和降水时空变化特征J.水利水电技术(中英文),2023,54(6):75-86.CHENG Shubo,LI Chong,YUE Ying,et al.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in central China from 1961 to 2
2、020J.Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2023,54(6):75-86.19612020 年我国中部地区气温和降水时空变化特征程书波1,李 冲1,岳 颖1,刘 玉2(1.河南理工大学 应急管理学院,河南 焦作 454000;2.中国科学院空天信息创新研究院,北京 100101)收稿日期:2022-11-12;修回日期:2022-12-05;录用日期:2023-01-03;网络出版日期:2023-02-09基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY043);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771393)作者简介:程书波(1979),男,副教
3、授,博士,主要从事自然灾害和水文水环境研究。E-mail:shubohpu 通信作者:李 冲(1997),男,硕士研究生,主要从事自然灾害和水文水环境研究。E-mail:2126487919 Editorial Department of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.摘 要:【目的】为揭示气温和降水变化信号对我国中部地区的响应特征,科学配置水资源,指导防汛抗旱工作,【方法】基于中部地区104 个气象站点1961202
4、0 年的逐月气温和降水数据,利用线性回归、累计距平、Mann-Kendall 突变检验、Morlet 小波分析、反距离权重插值(IDW)等方法对中部地区气温和降水的时空变化特征进行了探究。【结果】结果表明:(1)19612020 年中部地区年均温呈现显著上升趋势,上升速率为 0.23 /10 a,与全球气温变化一致。冬季增温幅度最大,为0.48 /10 a。19912000 年气温发生了从低温向高温的突变。年降水量呈现波动性上升趋势,上升速率为 1.24 mm/10 a。秋季降水量增幅最大为 1.74 mm/10 a,冬季增幅最小,为 0.78 mm/10 a,春季降水量呈减少趋势,减少幅度为
5、 0.58 mm/10 a。降水量年代际分布不均,19912000 年、20112020 年降水量高于多年平均降水量,且各年代均发生不同程度的突变。(2)在空间分布上,中部地区年均温总体上呈现出由南向北递增,山西省气温上升幅度最大,增幅最小为湖南省。年降水量地区分布不均,且呈现由西北向东南递增趋势。年降水量增幅最大在江西、安徽等地,山西、河南等地降水量趋于减少。(3)由 Morlet 小波分析表明,年均温存在由 32 a 强周期和 7 a、15 a 的小尺度变化周期,年降水量存在 32 a 强周期和 10 a、15 a 的小尺度变化周期。【结论】总体来说,我国中部地区气候呈现出增温增湿态势。关
6、键词:中部地区;气温;降水量;Morlet 小波;气候变化DOI:10.13928/ki.wrahe.2023.06.007开放科学(资源服务)标志码(OSID):中图分类号:P467文献标志码:A文章编号:1000-0860(2023)06-0075-12Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in central China from 1961 to 2020CHENG Shubo1,LI Chong1,YUE Ying1,LIU Yu2(1.School of Emer
7、gency Management,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan,China;2.Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)57程书波,等/19612020 年我国中部地区气温和降水时空变化特征水利水电技术(中英文)第 54 卷 2023 年第 6 期Abstract:ObjectiveTo reveal the response characteristics of temperature
8、 and precipitation change signals to the central region of China,to allocate water resources scientifically,and to guide the work of flood and drought management.MethodsBased on the month-by-month temperature and precipitation data of 104 meteorological stations in the central region from 1961 to 20
9、20,the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the central region are explored using linear regression,cumulative distance level,Mann-Kendall mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis,and inverse distance weight interpolation(IDW).ResultsThe result show that:(1)The annua
10、l mean temperature in the central region shows a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2020,with an increase rate of 0.23 /10 a,which is consistent with the global temperature change.The greatest warming in winter is 0.48 /10 a.A sudden change from low to high temperature occurred from 1991 to 2000.
11、The an-nual precipitation shows a fluctuating upward trend with an increase rate of 1.24 mm/10 a.The maximum increase in precipitati-on is 1.74 mm/10 a in autumn,the minimum increase is 0.78 mm/10 a in winter,and the decrease in precipitation in spring is 0.58 mm/10 a.The interdecadal distribution o
12、f precipitation is uneven,with the precipitation in 19912000,20112020 being higher than the multi-year average.The inter-decade distribution of precipitation is uneven,with precipitation during 19912000,2011,2020,and 2020 being higher than the multi-year average precipitation,and different degrees o
13、f abrupt changes occurring in each decade.(2)In terms of spatial distribution,the annual average temperature in the central region gen-erally shows an increase from south to north,with the largest increase in Shanxi Province and the smallest increase in Hunan Province.The regional distribution of an
14、nual precipitation is uneven and shows an increasing trend from northwest to southeast.The largest increase in annual precipitation is in Jiangxi and Anhui,and the precipitation tends to decrease in Shanxi and Henan.(3)The Morlet wavelet analysis shows that the annual mean temperature exists in a st
15、rong cycle of 32 a and a small-scale varia-tion cycle of 7 a and 15 a,and the annual precipitation exists in a strong cycle of 32 a and a small-scale variation cycle of 10 a and 15 a.ConclusionIn general,the climate of central China shows a warming and humidifying trend.Keywords:central region;tempe
16、rature;precipitation;Morlet wavelet;climate change0 0 引引 言言 根据 IPCC 第六次评估报告,21 世纪以来,全球气候地表平均气温比 18501900 年上升 1.09,并指出未来全球升温将达到 1.5 或以上1。中国气候变化蓝皮书(2022)指出,我国近几十年来的升温速率明显高于同期全球平均水平。中部地区横跨我国南北过渡带,受地形、纬度、海陆位置和复杂的气候系统等综合影响,区域内年降水量分布不均匀,气温季节性变化明显,是我国极端气候事件易发多发的重灾区以及我国气候变化的敏感区之一2-3。最新数据显示,2019 年中部地区因涝受灾人口、农作物面积以及直 接 经 济 损 失 分 别 占 全 国 损 失 的 45.19%、25.14%和 27.73%,农作物因旱受灾面积占全国比重为 34.33%,致灾因子危险性大,承灾体易损性和脆弱性高,成灾损失严重且防范难度大,严重影响人类生命财产、生产活动及社会经济发展,加剧人水关系及人与生态系统失衡,使中部地区发展陷入“短板”效应,制约中部地区崛起4-5。气温和降水是衡量气候变化的重要指标6。