1、Disaster-causing hazard assessment of rainstorms in Anhui ProvinceXIE Wusan1,2，TANG Weian1，WANG Sheng1(1.Anhui Climate Center,Hefei 230031;2.Anhui Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing,Hefei 230031)Abstract:Disaster-causing hazard assessment is the key to risk assessment
2、 and regionalization of rainstorms and flood disasters.Using thehourly and daily precipitation data of all national and regional meteorological stations in Anhui Province from the year of establishment ofthese stations to 2020,as well as the geographic information data,etc.,this paper has determined
3、 the weights of the four characteristic quantities of the single station rainstorm process by the information entropy weighting method,and then calculated the rainstorm process intensityindexes and annual waterlogging indexes.The intensity grade of the rainstorm process is divided into four grades b
4、y using the percentagequantile method.According to the altitude and terrain changes,the hazard-inducing environment impact index and disaster-causing hazardindex of torrential flood and plain waterlogging are calculated respectively,and the two are superimposed to obtain the comprehensive distributi
5、on of disaster-causing hazard of rainstorms in Anhui Province.The results show that the thresholds of the rainstorm process intensity index in Anhui Province based on the three percentiles of 50%,75%,and 90%are 0.059,0.095,and 0.154 respectively.The annual waterlogging index shows a spatial distribu
6、tion of the high in the south and low in the north characteristic,with higher values in the Dabie Mountain,the central and western region along the Yangtze River,and the southwestern region of the Jiangnan,while relatively lower values in theHuaibei region and the middle of the Jiang-Huai region.The
7、 hazard-inducing environment impact indexes of torrential flood and plain waterlogging are closely related to terrain.The hazard-inducing environment impact index of the torrential flood is relatively high in the DabieMountain and southern mountainous area in Anhui Province,while the hazard-inducing
8、 environment impact index of plain waterlogging isrelatively high in the northern part of Hefei,most areas along the Yangtze River and the eastern of Jiangnan.According to the risk evaluatingprinciple of being subject to the higher one,the disaster-causing hazards of torrential flood and plain water
9、logging have been superimposedand the comprehensive disaster-causing hazard map of rainstorms has been obtained.The high-risk area is mainly located in the southwestof Anhui,while the low-risk area is mainly located in the north of Huaibei,the middle and west of the Huaihe River,and the middle of th
10、e Ji谢五三,唐为安,王胜.2023.安徽省暴雨致灾危险性评估J.暴雨灾害,42(3):353-359.XIE Wusan，TANG Weian，WANG Sheng.2023.Di-saster-causing hazard assessment of rainstorms in Anhui Province J.Torrential Rain and Disasters,42(3):353-359(in Chinese).doi:10.12406/byzh.2022-118安徽省暴雨致灾危险性评估谢五三1,2,唐为安1,王胜1(1.安徽省气候中心,合肥 230031;2.安徽省大气科学与
11、卫星遥感重点实验室,合肥 230031)摘要：致灾危险性评估是暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的关键。基于安徽省所有国家气象观测站及区域自动气象站建站至2020年逐日逐时降水量及地理信息等资料，采用信息熵赋权法确定单站暴雨过程四个特征量的权重，并计算出暴雨过程强度指数及年雨涝指数，运用百分位数法将暴雨过程强度等级划分为四级，依据海拔高度和地形变化，分别计算山洪和平原内涝的孕灾环境影响指数及致灾危险性指数，并将两者进行叠加，得到安徽省暴雨综合致灾危险性分布。结果表明：基于50%、75%和90%三个百分位数的安徽省暴雨过程强度指数的阈值分别为0.059、0.095和0.154；年雨涝指数呈现“南高北低”的空
12、间分布，大别山区、沿江中西部及江南西南部较高，而沿淮淮北及江淮之间中部相对较低；山洪和平原内涝的孕灾环境影响指数与地形密切相关，大别山区和皖南山区山洪孕灾环境影响指数较高，合肥以北、沿江大部及江南东部平原内涝孕灾环境影响指数较高；根据风险就高的原则，将山洪和平原内涝进行叠加，得出融合山洪和平原内涝的暴雨综合致灾危险性分布图，高危险区主要位于安徽省西南部，而低危险区主要位于淮北北部、沿淮中西部及江淮之间中部。评估结果可用于全省气象灾害综合风险普查专项工作、实时气象防灾减灾业务服务以及规划计划、重大工程建设气候可行性论证等工作。关键词：致灾危险性；雨涝指数；孕灾环境影响指数；暴雨；地理信息系统中图
13、法分类号:P426.6文献标志码：ADOI:10.12406/byzh.2022-118暴雨灾害TORRENTIAL RAIN AND DISASTERSVol.42 No.3Jun.2023第42卷 第3期2023年6月收稿日期：2022-06-10；定稿日期：2023-04-27资助项目：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J007);安徽省自然科学基金项目(1908085MD109);国家气候中心能源气候服务团队建设项目(NCCCXTD003)第一作者：谢五三，主要从事气候监测评估与气象灾害风险研究。E-mail：xiewusan_第42卷暴雨灾害引言国际减灾十年委员会(IDNDR)
14、指出，暴雨洪涝灾害是人类面临的最严重的自然灾害之一，占自然灾害引起死亡的55%，占自然灾害引起经济损失的31%(韩平和程先富，2012)。暴雨洪涝灾害是我国的主要气象灾害之一，往往对社会经济发展和人民生命财产安全构成严重威胁(周月华等，2019)，如河南“75 8”特大暴雨(丁一汇，2015)、北京“7 21”特大暴雨(段伯隆等，2017)、郑州“7 20”极端暴雨等(苏爱芳等，2021)，均造成严重经济损失和人员伤亡，因而开展暴雨灾害致灾危险性研究具有重要意义。暴雨在山区主要引发山洪，具有来势猛、成灾快、破坏性强、易造成人员伤亡等特点(吉中会等，2018；吕新生等，2021)；而在平原地区主
15、要造成内涝，其波及范围广，持续时间长，造成的损失巨大(王越等，2018)。近年来，针对山洪灾害致灾危险性评价以及风险评估与区划的研究已有不少，如任洪玉等(2018)基于自然灾害风险理论，将多年暴雨极值年均雨量与多年暴雨极值变异系数加权综合，得到暴雨综合指标，再与地形起伏度以乘积形式叠加后得到山洪灾害危险性分布。高展等(2015)以黄山风景区为研究对象，致灾因子考虑暴雨强度与频率的综合，暴雨强度强、频率高，则致灾危险性高；孕灾环境考虑高程与地形变化的综合，海拔高、起伏大，孕灾敏感性越高；承灾体考虑景区游客流量以及建筑物密集度的综合，游客流量大、建筑物越密集，山洪易损性越高，将三者进行加权综合得到
16、山洪灾害风险区划。吴小君等(2018)从致灾因子、下垫面孕灾环境和承灾体三个角度，确定影响山洪灾害的9个评价指标，构建了基于随机森林的模型，完成江西省山洪灾害风险评估。刘业伟等(2018)从危险性和易损性两方面构建了风险评价指标体系，基于层次分析法和地理信息系统，建立山洪灾害风险评价模型，绘制山洪灾害危险性、易损性和风险分布图。同样，针对平原内涝灾害风险评估与区划的研究也有不少，如李兰等(2013)基于GIS的暴雨洪涝淹没模型，利用D8及曼宁公式计算不同重现期面雨量淹没范围和水深，并运用灾害风险原理绘制了漳河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划图。卢珊等(2015)基于逐日降水资料，采用距平分析、Mann-Kendall 检验以及信息扩散的模糊数学方法对秦岭北麓汛期暴雨洪涝进行灾害风险评估。郭树军等(2017)基于降雨强度、积水深度、危险源及承灾体等，建立了针对易涝点的“雨强-水深-风险情景”评估模型。谢五三等(2015)基于二维水动力模型FloodArea，输入降水、DEM、土地利用等参数，得到洪水淹没范围、水深、历时等信息，再结合承灾体信息完成流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划。综上所述，针对山洪