1、Quantifying Peace and its BenefitsThe Institute for Economics&Peace(IEP)is an independent,non-partisan,non-profit think tank dedicated to shifting the worlds focus to peace as a positive,achievable,and tangible measure of human well-being and progress.IEP achieves its goals by developing new concept
2、ual frameworks to define peacefulness;providing metrics for measuring peace;and uncovering the relationships between business,peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural,economic and political factors that create peace.IEP is headquartered in Sydney,with offices
3、in New York,The Hague,Mexico City and Brussels.It works with a wide range of partners internationally and collaborates with intergovernmental organisations on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace.For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.orgPlease cite this report as:Instit
4、ute for Economics&Peace.Global Peace Index 2018:Measuring Peace in a Complex World,Sydney,June 2018.Available from:http:/visionofhumanity.org/reports(accessed Date Month Year).GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2018|1ContentsKey Findings 4Highlights 62018 Global Peace Index rankings 8Regional overview 12Improvement
5、s&deteriorations 19Ten year trends in the Global Peace Index 26100 year trends in peace 32Results 46The macroeconomic impact of peace 52What is Positive Peace?60Trends in Positive Peace 65What precedes a change in peacefulness?69Positive Peace and the economy 73Appendix A:GPI Methodology 78Appendix
6、B:GPI indicator sources,definitions&scoring criteria 82Appendix C:GPI Domain scores 90Appendix D:Economic cost of violence 93TRENDS23APPENDICES77POSITIVE PEACE59ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VIOLENCE45EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2RESULTS5GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2018|2EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis is the twelfth edition of the Global
7、Peace Index(GPI),which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness.Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace(IEP),the GPI is the worlds leading measure of global peacefulness.This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on
8、 trends in peace,its economic value,and how to develop peaceful societies.The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the worlds population,using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources,and measures the state of peace using three thematic domains:the level of Societal Safety and
9、 Security;the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict;and the degree of Militarisation.In addition to presenting the findings from the 2018 GPI,this years report includes analysis of trends in Positive Peace:the attitudes,institutions,and structures that create and sustain peaceful soc
10、ieties.It looks at changes in indicators of Positive Peace that immediately precede deteriorations or improvements in peacefulness,which provides a framework for predictive analysis.The report also assesses the ways in which high levels of peace positively influence major macroeconomic indicators.Th
11、e results of the 2018 GPI find that the global level of peace has deteriorated by 0.27 per cent in the last year,marking the fourth successive year of deteriorations.Ninety-two countries deteriorated,while 71 countries improved.The 2018 GPI reveals a world in which the tensions,conflicts,and crises
12、that emerged in the past decade remain unresolved,especially in the Middle East,resulting in this gradual,sustained fall in peacefulness.Underlying the fall in peacefulness,six of the nine regions in the world deteriorated in the last year.The four most peaceful regions Europe,North America,Asia-Pac
13、ific,and South America all recorded deteriorations,with the largest overall deterioration occurring in South America,owing to falls in the Safety and Security domain,mainly due to increases in the incarceration rate and impact of terrorism.Iceland remains the most peaceful country in the world,a pos
14、ition it has held since 2008.It is joined at the top of the index by New Zealand,Austria,Portugal,and Denmark.Syria remains the least peaceful country in the world,a position it has held for the past five years.Afghanistan,South Sudan,Iraq,and Somalia comprise the remaining least peaceful countries.
15、Europe,the worlds most peaceful region,recorded a deterioration for the third straight year.It deteriorated across all three GPI domains and eleven indicators,most notably on the intensity of internal conflict and relations with neighbouring countries.For the first time in the history of the index,a
16、 Western European country experienced one of the five largest deteriorations,with Spain falling 10 places in the rankings to 30th,owing to internal political tensions and an increase in the impact of terrorism.South Asia experienced the largest regional improvement in peacefulness,with Bhutan,Sri La
17、nka,India,and Nepal all improving.Four of the five largest improvements in peacefulness occurred in sub-Saharan Africa,despite the region having a slight deterioration in its overall peacefulness.The single largest country improvement occurred in the Gambia,where improvements in political instabilit
18、y,perceptions of criminality,and relations with neighbouring countries saw it improve 35 places in the rankings,moving up to 76th.The election of the new president Adama Barrow lay behind the improvements in political stability and the Gambias relations with neighbouring countries.The Middle East an
19、d North Africa(MENA)region recorded an improvement in peacefulness for only the third time in the last eleven years.Despite the improvement,it remains the worlds least peaceful region,a position it has held since 2015.Qatar experienced the single largest deterioration in peacefulness,as the politica
20、l and economic boycott placed on it by the UAE,Saudi Arabia,Egypt,and Bahrain led to deteriorations in relations with neighbouring countries and political instability.The ten-year trend in peacefulness finds that global peacefulness has deteriorated by 2.38 per cent since 2008,with 85 GPI countries
21、recording a deterioration,while 75 improved.The index has deteriorated for eight of the last eleven years,with the last improvement in peacefulness occurring in 2014.In Europe,the worlds most peaceful region,61 per cent of countries have deteriorated since 2008.Not one Nordic country is more peacefu
22、l now than in 2008.Global peacefulness has deteriorated across two of the three GPI domains over the past decade,with Ongoing Conflict deteriorating by six per cent and Safety and Security deteriorating by three per cent.Terrorism and GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2018|2GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2018|3internal confli
23、ct have been the biggest contributors to the global deterioration in peacefulness over the decade.One hundred countries experienced increased terrorist activity,with only 38 improving,and total conflict deaths increased by 264 per cent between 2006 and 2016.However,contrary to public perception,the
24、militarisation domain recorded a 3.2 per cent improvement since 2008.The number of armed services personnel per 100,000 people has fallen in 119 countries,and military expenditure as a percentage of GDP fell in 102 countries with only 59 countries increasing their spending.Trends over the last centu
25、ry show that the deterioration in peacefulness in the last decade runs contrary to the longer term trend.The economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2017 was$14.76 trillion in purchasing power parity(PPP)terms.This figure is equivalent to 12.4 per cent of the worlds economic activity(gr
26、oss world product)or$1,988 for every person.The economic impact of violence increased by two per cent during 2017 due to a rise in the economic impact of conflict and increases in internal security spending,with the largest increases being in China,Russia and South Africa.Since 2012,the economic imp
27、act of violence has increased by 16 per cent,corresponding with the start of the Syrian war and rising violence in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.The report finds that peacefulness has a considerable impact on macroeconomic performance.In the last 70 years,per capita growth has been three times hi
28、gher in highly peaceful countries when compared to countries with low levels of peace.The difference is even stronger when looking at changes in peacefulness,with the report finding that per capita GDP growth has been seven times higher over the last decade in countries that improved in peacefulness
29、 versus those that deteriorated.Peacefulness is also correlated with strong performance on a number of macroeconomic variables.Interest rates are lower and more stable in highly peaceful countries,as is the rate of inflation.Foreign direct investment is more than twice as high in highly peaceful cou
30、ntries.In total,if the least peaceful countries had grown at the same rate as highly peaceful countries,the global economy would be almost 14 trillion dollars larger.The reports Positive Peace research analyses the trends in Positive Peace over the last decade,finding that changes in Positive Peace
31、precede shifts in GPI scores.These same factors also lead to many other positive outcomes that societies consider important.Therefore,Positive Peace describes an optimum environment for human potential to flourish.Positive Peace is not only associated with higher levels of peace,it is also associate
32、d with stronger macroeconomic performance,as the factors that sustain highly peaceful societies also provide a framework for robust economic development:Non-OECD countries that improved in Positive Peace averaged 1.45 per cent higher GDP growth per annum from 2005 to 2016 than those that deteriorate
33、d in Positive Peace.Improvements in Positive Peace are also linked to domestic currency appreciation,with currencies on average appreciating by 1.4 per cent when their Positive Peace improves,compared to a 0.4 per cent depreciation when Positive Peace deteriorates.Credit ratings are also more likely
34、 to fall when countries experience deteriorations in Positive Peace,falling on average by 4.5 points on a 0 to 22 scale,while countries improving in Positive Peace are more likely to see their credit ratings improve or stay the same.Countries that are high in Positive Peace have less volatile econom
35、ic performance.Measures of economic efficiency are also strongly correlated with Positive Peace across six of the eight Positive Peace Pillars.Globally,Positive Peace improved by 1.85 per cent from 2005 to 2016.However,improvements in Positive Peace stalled from 2013 onwards.There have been a number
36、 of worrying trends in the past few years,with the Acceptance of the Rights of Others Pillar deteriorating across every region of the world from 2013 to 2016.The trend was particularly pronounced in Europe and North America,where this Pillar has been deteriorating since 2005.The greatest deteriorati
37、on in Positive Peace occurred in the Middle East and North Africa,which deteriorated across almost every Pillar of Positive Peace.The report finds that,on average,for a countrys GPI score to improve there must be improvements across a broad range of Positive Peace indicators and Pillars.However,a de
38、terioration in peacefulness can be triggered by a fall in just a handful of key Positive Peace indicators.A deterioration in the Low Levels of Corruption,Well-Functioning Government,and Acceptance of the Rights of Others Pillars are the most likely triggers for a fall in the GPI score.From 2005 to 2
39、016 101 countries scores deteriorated in Low Levels of Corruption.In general,there is a strong association between movements in Positive Peace and their GPI score,with 70 per cent of countries recording large improvements in the GPI also having sustained improvements in Positive Peace beforehand.GLO
40、BAL PEACE INDEX 2018|3GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2018|4KEY FINDINGSSECTION 1:RESULTS The average level of global peacefulness has declined for the fourth consecutive year,falling by 0.27 per cent in 2017.Nintey-two countries deteriorated,while only 71 improved.The Middle East and North Africa(MENA)remained
41、the worlds least peaceful region.It is home to four of the ten least peaceful countries in the world,with no country from the region ranked higher than 40th on the GPI.Europe,which has been the worlds most peaceful region since the inception of the index,deteriorated in peacefulness for the third st
42、raight year,due to increased political instability,impact of terrorism and perceptions of criminality.Peacefulness deteriorated across all three GPI domains over the past year,with the largest deterioration occurring in the Ongoing Conflict domain.In Europe,the independence referendum held by the re
43、gional government of Catalonia in Spain resulted in heightened political tensions,which resulted in Spain falling ten places in the rankings.Fourteen European countries now have an intensity of internal conflict score higher than one.The Safety and Security domain had the second largest deterioratio
44、n of the three GPI domains in 2017,although more countries improved(83)than deteriorated(78).Military expenditure as percentage of GDP continued its decade long decline,with 88 countries recording an improvement compared to 44 that had a deterioration.The average country military expenditure has fal
45、len slightly since 2008,from 2.28 per cent of GDP to 2.22 per cent in 2018,with 102 countries spending less on the military as a percentage of GDP over the decade.SECTION 2:TRENDS IN PEACE The average level of global peacefulness has deteriorated by 2.38 per cent since 2008.Over that period,85 count
46、ries deteriorated,while 75 improved.The average level of country peacefulness has deteriorated for eight of the past ten years.The gap between the least and most peaceful countries continues to grow.Since 2008,the 25 least peaceful countries declined on average by 12.7 per cent,while the 25 most pea
47、ceful countries improved by 0.9 per cent on average.Of the three GPI domains,two recorded a deterioration over the last decade,while one improved.Ongoing Conflict deteriorated by 5.9 per cent and Safety and Security deteriorated by 2.9 per cent.However,Militarisation improved by 3.2 per cent.In Euro
48、pe,the worlds most peaceful region,61 per cent of countries have deteriorated since 2008.Not one Nordic country is more peaceful now than in 2008.The indicator with the largest deterioration was terrorism impact,with 62 per cent of countries recording increased levels of terrorist activity and 35 pe
49、r cent experiencing a large deterioration.2014 marked a 25 year high in battle deaths.However,battle deaths in the last 25 years account for only 3 per cent of the battle deaths in the last 100 years,or 7 per cent if World War II is excluded.Refugees made up almost 1 per cent of the global populatio
50、n in 2017 for the first time in modern history,at a rate 12 times higher than that in 1951.SECTION 3:ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VIOLENCE The global economic impact of violence was$14.76 trillion PPP in 2017,equivalent to 12.4 per cent of global GDP,or$1,988 per person.The economic impact of violence has inc