1、Please refer to important information at the end of this report ARGENTINA:ELECTION TRACKER DEEP DIVE|EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH June 2019 Felipe Klein,Economist BNP Paribas Sucursal-Buenos Aires Luiz Eduardo Peixoto,Economist BNP Paribas London branch 2 STATE OF PLAY POLLS KEY ISSUES Alliances take s
2、hape in Argentina:President Macri has named Miguel Pichetto,a moderate Peronist,as his running mate and Sergio Massa has confirmed that he will run for the Lower House,representing Cristina Kirchners front.We have updated our election tracker to include the potential implications of these moves(see
3、slides 3 and 4).Macris selection of Senator Pichetto has two major implications.While it is unlikely that he will make any significant contribution in terms of attracting voters,we think he may have an indirect positive impact in calming financial markets.It also highlights a fragmented Peronist opp
4、osition to the president(page 31).Sergio Massas electoral base has declined significantly since 2013,according to latest elections and recent polls.However,he may still be able to win voters in Buenos Aires and Cordoba(page 13),where he has good support.We also note that Mr Lavagna could end up winn
5、ing over many of Mr Massas voters.President Macris net image improved in May and June mainly due to a less volatile exchange rate,we think.In this updated election tracker,we have included the main macroeconomic drivers of the election(see slides 25 and 26).It also includes updated net images of the
6、 main candidates and a poll of polls of both the first and the second round(see slides 18 and 21).The format is user-friendly and easy to navigate.We will update this tracker frequently to keep you abreast of the latest developments.CONTENTS KEY MESSAGES 02 03 04 CURRENT CONGRESS PARTIES AND LEADERS
7、 04 04 LINKS TO RECENT PUBLICATIONS Electoral impact:oPichetto does not have a significant voter supportbase.oBut he may have an indirect positive impact by wayof calming financial markets.Markets reacted positively to the newsoHis strong track record in the Senate bodes wellfor the passage of struc
8、tural reforms if Macri isre-elected.oThe announcement furthers the argument thatPeronism will be fragmented.MACRI NAMES SENATOR PICHETTO AS HIS RUNNING MATE 3 Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas BIO Age 68 Born 24 October 1950Banfield,Buenos AiresPolitical Background Senator,Province of Ro Negro(2001-Presen
9、t)Gubernatorial candidate,Province of Ro Negro(2007 and 2015)Legislator,Province of Ro Negro(1993-2001)Education Law,Universidad Nacional de La PlataPolitical Party Peronist party,from its centre-right or“moderate”factionWho is Miguel Angel Pichetto?0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Ju
10、n-19NegativeNeutralPositivePichettos image among Macri supporters Those who have a positive image of President Macri reacted well to the announcement Where might Massas votes go?(June 2019)SERGIO MASSA WILL NOW RUN FOR THE LOWER HOUSE 4 Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas Back home:Sergio Massa will rejoin
11、Cristina Kirchners front to run for the Lower House.Massas image among Kirchners supporters 0%20%40%60%Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19NegativeNeutralPositive12%11%12%23%42%Fernndez-Kirchner Lavagna Macri Sources:Perfil,Synopsis,BNP Paribas Other Undecided Mr Massa was Cristina Kirchners cabinet
12、 chief during her first term.In 2013,he distanced himself from Mrs Kirchner to compete against her party in the midterms.His electoral performance has dwindled since 2013,and latest polls suggest that voting intentions for Massa do not exceed 10%,but he still enjoys strong support in Buenos Aires an
13、d Cordoba.Massas image among Mrs Kirchners declared supporters has increased sharply since the announcement,but polls conducted immediately after the news suggest only a portion of his voters will join the former presidents ticket.44%22%16%11%Midterms 2013Presidential2015Primaries 2017 Midterms 2017
14、Sources:Direccin Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas Sergio Massa Performance,Buenos Aires Province 5 STATE OF PLAY 2019 Election Calendar.6 Election process.7 Provincial elections:general aspects.8 Provincial elections:calendar.9 Provincial governors:results.10 Provincial elections:additional details.11
15、 Party affiliation of provincial governors.12 Key constituencies:Buenos Aires.13 Key constituencies:Santa Fe.14 Key constituencies:Cordoba.15 2019 ELECTION CALENDAR1 6 10-Registry of pollster companies for the national primaries closes 19 Polls and electoral forecasts are banned August November 2019
16、 24 Elections(2nd round for president)October June May 22 Deadline for formal appointment of pre-candidates to compete in the primaries Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas 1.Some dates are tentative and will be confirmed later.11 National Primaries(PASO)December 10 New President takes o
17、ffice July 12 Electoral campaign for the national primaries starts 27-Ballot locations are assigned and made public September 13-Formal invitation to the mandatory presidential debate 22 Electoral campaign for the general election starts 27 Official registry of voters is published 2 First day of ele
18、ctoral campaign on TV,radio and in newspapers 27 Elections (1st round for president and legislative)12 Deadline for formal appointment of political alliances Primaries are mandatory.They are relevant as they are as good as live polls and are thus a good proxy for the actual election result as voters
19、 are required to vote for only one candidate.Any candidate who wins at least 1.5%of the valid votes in the primaries can contest the election.The primary provides valuable information that can be used to improve performance in the October first-round vote(especially for the ruling party).7 Parliamen
20、tary elections are held on the same date as the first round of the presidential election.In 2019,elections will be held for one-third of the Senate and half of the lower chamber.With no party likely to hold a majority in Congress,alliances will have to be made to pass legislation.Legislative electio
21、ns-For a candidate to win the presidential election in the first round he/she needs to secure either 45%of the valid votes;or,at least 40%of the valid votes with a difference of at least 10pp versus the runner-up.-For all other outcome,a second round needs to take place.We think a second round is li
22、kely to be needed this year.Presidential election Primaries(PASO)NATIONAL ELECTION PROCESS AND FEATURES Source:BNP Paribas PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:GENERAL ASPECTS 8 Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Buenos Aires province(15.6)Crdoba(3.3)Santa Fe(3.2)Bueno
23、s Aires autonomous city(2.9)Mendoza(1.7)Tucumn(1.5)Entre Ros(1.2)Salta(1.2)Misiones(1.1)Provincia del Chaco(1.1)Corrientes(1.0)Santiago del Estero(0.9)San Juan(0.7)Jujuy(0.7)Ro Negro(0.6)Neuqun(0.6)Formosa(0.5)Chubut(0.5)San Luis(0.4)Catamarca(0.4)La Rioja(0.3)La Pampa(0.3)Santa Cruz(0.3)Tierra del
24、Fuego(0.0)ARGENTINIAN PROVINCES(IN MILLIONS OF INHABITANTS)Watch for:The race in the province of Buenos Aires,which has the largest population(39%)of Argentinians WHICH:All provinces,excluding Corrientes and Santiago del Estero which had gubernatorial elections in 2017,will elect governor and local
25、legislators.There are no elections in Santiago del Estero this year.TIMING:Most provinces have decided to separate local elections from the presidential election in 2019.The province of Buenos Aires has recently decided not to separate the two.Given governor Maria Eugenia Vidals popularity,this deci
26、sion could boost the chances of President Macri getting re-elected as almost 40%of Argentinians live in the province.PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:CALENDAR 9 Sources:La Nacion,BNP Paribas February+March April +May June July,August+Sept.October PrimariesLA PAMPA(17 Feb)SAN JUAN(31 Mar)Governor and Legislative
27、 NEUQUEN(Mar 10)Winner:MPN (Peronism,local)Primaries CHUBUT(9 Jun)ENTRE RIOS(14 Apr)SAN LUIS(21 Apr)SANTA FE(28 Apr)Governor and Legislative RIO NEGRO(7 Apr)Winner:JUNTOS(centre-left,local)CORDOBA(12 May)Winner:Peronist party LA PAMPA(19 May)Winner:Peronist party Primaries MENDOZA(9 Jun)Governor and
28、 Legislative SAN JUAN and MISIONES(2 Jun)CHUBUT,JUJUY,TUCUMN,and ENTRE RIOS(9 Jun)SAN LUIS,SANTA FE,and T.DEL FUEGO (16 Jun)Primaries BUENOS AIRES,C.A.B.A.(BUENOS AIRES METRO AREA),and SALTA (11 Aug)Governor and Legislative MENDOZA(29 Sep)Presidential Primaries(PASO)8 AUGUST Governor and Legislative
29、 FORMOSA BUENOS AIRES C.A.B.A.SALTA SANTA CRUZ(27 Oct)Presidential Election 27 OCTOBER PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:RESULTS 10 Sources:Faustino Sojo,El Dia,BNP Paribas Radicals (part of Cambiemos)Peronism (includes Kirchnerism)Local parties (unaffiliated)00.511.522.53LocalCambiemosKirchnerism/MassaOther,Per
30、onismNeuquenRio NegroCordobaLa PampaSan JuanMisionesChubutJujuyEntre RiosTucumanSan LuisSanta FeT.del Fuego1.4 0.4 11.9 2.5 1.0 0481216MendozaFormosaBuenos Aires provinceCity of Buenos AiresSaltaSanta CruzTotal votes,by alliance(in million of voters)Provinces yet to hold provincial elections(in mill
31、ions of voters)54%of voters have yet to vote in provincial elections,with elections in Buenos Aires province and the capital city(together representing 45%of the electorate)to be held alongside the presidential vote,on 27 October.Incumbents have dominated all provincial elections in 2019,except in S
32、anta Fe,where the Peronist party defeated the Socialist front for the first time in 12 years.PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS:DETAILS 11 Province Governor Senators Legislators Buenos Aires yes 23 46 CABA yes N/A 30 Catamarca yes 8 20 Chaco yes N/A 16 Chubut yes N/A 27 Crdoba yes N/A 70 Corrientes no 5 15 Entre
33、Ros yes 17 34 Formosa yes N/A 15 Jujuy yes N/A 24 La Pampa yes N/A 30 La Rioja yes N/A 18 Province Governor Senators Legislators Mendoza yes 19 24 Misiones yes N/A 20 Neuqun yes N/A 35 Ro Negro yes N/A 46 S.del Estero no N/A 0 Salta yes 11 30 San Juan yes 0 36 San Luis yes 5 21 Santa Cruz yes 0 24 S
34、anta Fe yes 19 50 T.del Fuego yes N/A 15 Tucumn yes N/A 49 Sources:Direccion Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas Re-election rules for governors:PROVINCIAL RE-ELECTION RULES 3 provinces allow INDEFINITE re-election:Catamarca,Formosa,Santa Cruz.2 provinces allow governors to be re-elected for two addition
35、al terms:Salta,San Juan.17 provinces allow governors to be re-elected for one additional term:Buenos Aires,CABA,Chaco,Chubut,Crdoba,Corrientes,Entre Ros,Jujuy,La Pampa,La Rioja,Misiones,Neuqun,Ro Negro,San Luis,S.del Estero,T.del Fuego,Tucumn 2 provinces allow governors to be re-elected but not for
36、consecutive terms:Mendoza,Santa Fe.19.0 9.2 0.4 3.2 5.3 PARTY AFFILIATION OF PROVINCIAL GOVERNORS 12 Sources:Direccin Nacional Electoral,BNP Paribas 4 12 1 1 5 POLITICAL PARTY AFFILIATION OF ARGENTINAS 23 PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS In millions governed In number of provinces Cambiemos and provincial all
37、ies Buenos Aires Corrientes Jujuy Mendoza Catamarca Chaco Entre Ros Formosa La Rioja Misiones Salta San Juan Santa Cruz T.del Fuego Tucuman S.del Estero Compromiso Federal San Luis Progresistas Santa Fe No national alliance Chubut Crdoba La Pampa Neuqun Ro Negro Peronist party (Frente para la Victor
38、ia)KEY CONSTITUENCIES:BUENOS AIRES 13 Sources:Thomas Drohobycki,BNP Paribas Cambiemos Kirchnerism The Buenos Aires region accounts for 45%of the Argentinian electorate;8%in the capital and 37%in the surrounding areas.The affluent city centre is a key constituency for president Mauricio Macri but Cri
39、stina Kirchner remains highly popular in the province which has about a third of the electorate.Kirchners candidate Daniel Scioli beat Mr Macri in 2015 in the Province of Buenos Aires.Sergio Massa,who will now run for the Lower House,also has a decent support base in Buenos Aires.Back in 2015,he man
40、aged to gather 22%of the votes in the province and 15%in the capital.Peronism,others 0246Cambiemos and alliesKirchnerism and alliesMassismCity of BuenosAiresBuenos AiresprovinceWinning alliance,by district(2017 election)Winning alliance,by district(2017 election)Buenos Aires province,local assembly(
41、2017 election)KEY CONSTITUENCIES:SANTA FE 14 Sources:Thomas Drohobycki,BNP Paribas 2015 presidential election,1st round Santa Fe(in millions)00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.82Santa FeStolbiezer(Progressive)Others,PeronismOthers,left-wingMassa(Peronism)Macri(Cambiemos)Scioli(Kirchnerism)Scioli(Kirchnerism)4
42、4%Macri(Cambiemos)56%The Santa Fe province,with 8.4%of the electorate,was governed by the Socialist party,a Lavagna ally.But this changed in this years election:Peronist Omar Perotti,who won the vote,has not yet announced explicit support for any of the candidates.Sergio Massa,now part of Cristina K
43、irchners alliance,managed to gather 500k votes in the 2015 election in Cordoba,and could help propel the Fernandez-Kirchner ticket to victory after Kirchnerism lost by half of that number in 2015.2015 presidential election,2nd round Santa Fe(in%)KEY CONSTITUENCIES:CORDOBA 15 Sources:Thomas Drohobyck
44、i,BNP Paribas With 8.6%of the electorate,Cordoba is a key stronghold for Macri:Argentinas president grabbed three-fourths of the votes in the 2015 second-round against Kirchnerism.However,support may have dwindled:In this years local assembly election,the Peronist party won 45 out of 70 seats,with 2
45、2 congressmen getting elected from parties allied to Macri(31%of the seats).Governor Juan Schiaretti,a moderate Peronist,has won a resounding victory in this years provincial election,beating Macris and Kirchners allies;it is still uncertain who Schiaretti will support.2015 presidential election,1st
46、 round Cordoba Cordoba,local assembly(2019 election)0500100015002000CrdobaStolbiezer(Progressive)Others,PeronismOthers,left-wingMassa(Peronism)Macri(Cambiemos)Scioli(Kirchnerism)Cordoba,governorship vote (2019 election)00.40.81.21.62Schiaretti(Peronism)Negri and Mestri(Cambiemos allies)Left-wing,oth
47、ers 16 POLLS Net images of politicians.17 BNPP Poll of polls:First round.18 Rejection rates.19 Voting intentions:second round.20 BNPP Poll of polls:second round.21 NET IMAGE OF POLITICIANS 17 Sources:Elypsis,BNP Paribas Macris net image has continued to improve(8pp in June),while Fernandez and Kirch
48、ners images have deteriorated 10pp and 6pp,respectively,over the past three weeks.-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19KirchnerLavagnaMacriFernandez POLL OF POLLS:FIRST ROUND 18 VOTING PROSPECTS(%of total)Sources:Local press(Grupo La Provincia,Pgina 12,Clarn
49、,El Cronista,El Economista,La Poltica Online,El Destape,La Nacin,Infobae)based on several pollsters(Isonoma,M&F,Synopsis,Opinaia,Rouvier,Haime,Universidad San Andres,M&F,Circuitos,Demos Consulting,CELAG,Centro de Estudios de Opinion Pblica,Query Argentina,Real Time Data),BNP Paribas 29 30 28 27 27 2
50、9 24 27 22 29 27 28 28 27 21 25 29 31 24 24 37 29 28 25 27 32 25 25 26 33 27 35 35 28 30 35 28 42 34 23 28 24 37 31 32 35 31 26 33 36 39 34 29 33 40 31 32 31 37 36 37 41 38 36 41 13 11 14 9 15 9 11 12 10 9 9 11 8 12 14 12 17 16 10 11 8 20 13 13 15 17 8 11 23 12 10 9 4 05101520253035404550Jan-19Feb-1