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本文(巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-拉丁美洲:墨西哥国家石油公司的救济措施没有达到预期-20190215-7页.pdf)为本站会员(a****2)主动上传,蜗牛文库仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对上载内容本身不做任何修改或编辑。 若此文所含内容侵犯了您的版权或隐私,请立即通知蜗牛文库(发送邮件至admin@wnwk.com或直接QQ联系客服),我们立即给予删除!

巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-拉丁美洲:墨西哥国家石油公司的救济措施没有达到预期-20190215-7页.pdf

1、TRADE IDEA We hold the view that despite the higher political uncertainty in Mexico,markets have already priced in an adverse scenario in the short term.We have been seeing premiums across local interest rates and the MXN,in particular.We are also seeing loose global financial conditions and low US

2、rates,which support lower rates globally.Additionally,our EM portfolio flows model has been pointing to an improvement in flows.That said,we are comfortable receiving rates in the long-end of the TIIE curve through 5y and 10y tenors and holding a long MXN position against the EUR.EM ECONOMICS KEY ME

3、SSAGES Mexico said on Friday the 2019 extraordinary support for Pemex will be USD4.7bn most of which was already announced.We see this as a step in the right direction and believe that the multi-annual tax relief was a much-needed structural measure.Yet,owing to our high expectations we think the pa

4、ckage does not offer substantial relief.We are concerned about policy measures consistently being reactive and ending short of what is needed.Hence,we do not think the measures will lift the veil of uncertainty over the state-owned company.In our view,markets have already priced in an adverse scenar

5、io in the short term.We are comfortable receiving rates in the long-end of the TIIE curve through 5y and 10y tenors and holding a long MXN position against the EUR.FLASH|LATAM 15 February 2019 On the right track but at odds with expectations,we think.Our expectations for the government support for a

6、iling Pemex were high.We were hoping for more bolder measures,even if it meant adverse fiscal implications.The measures announced today add just 12%more aid in the form of tax relief(reliefs worth MXN11bn were announced on 28 January).Moreover,uncertainty still remains on the estimation of USD1.6bn

7、in extra revenues from curbing fuel theft.Mind the risk a potential feedback loop emerging from timid government measures.Todays announcement may be interpreted as a third iteration(the previous two being the 2019 budget and the 28 January tax relief)in less than three months to take Pemex out of th

8、e woods in terms of short and medium-term pressures and align it with the governments new strategy for the energy sector.By falling short on every measure,the government runs the risk of being perceived as behind the events.It also complicates the task of lifting the veil of uncertainty over Pemexs

9、finances and credit rating.Is the effort sufficient,sustainable and satisfactory?Probably not sufficient enough to eliminate the risk of further financial pressure on Pemex.It may be sustainable and could mean a structural change as tax relief for Pemex is welcome and necessary.Yet,we do not think t

10、his is satisfactory,especially for credit rating agencies as the package only provides a marginal change with respect to the current support programmes and uncertainties remain on the new policy guidelines for the energy sector.Please refer to important information and MAR disclosures at the end of

11、this report Mexico:PEMEX relief measures fall short of expectations Table 1:The Package Sources:Banxico,BNP Paribas.*Source:SCHP,BNP Paribas.Note:*This was calculated with average exchange rate considered by SHCP as the official presentation was still showing the old USD0.6bn figure.1 Joel Virgen Ro

12、jano,Mexico Economist|BNP Paribas Securities Corp.Andre Digiacomo,FX&IR Latin America Strategy|Banco BNP Paribas Brasil SA.MXN bn USD bn1.Capitalization251.32.Cash-out of Pension Liability promissory notes351.83.Additional fiscal relief150.8*4.Revenues from fuel theft recovery321.6TOTAL1074.7Governm

13、ent Support 2019Amounts|DATA WATCH 15/02/2019 2 DISCLAIMER This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies(collectively“BNPP”);it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis,and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from th

14、eir interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report.This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),non-independe

15、nt research constitutes a marketing communication.This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II.It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of investment research,and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of

16、 the dissemination of investment research.The content in this document/communication may also contain“Research”as defined under the MiFID II unbundling rules.If the document/communication contains Research,it is intended for those firms who are either in scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and ha

17、ve signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages,or firms that are out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and therefore not required to pay for Research under MiFID II.Please note that it is your firms responsibility to ensure that you do not view or use the Research content i

18、n this document if your firm has not signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages,except where your firm is out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules.STEER is a trade mark of BNPP.MARKETS 360 is a trade mark of BNP Paribas This document constitutes a marketing communication and

19、has been prepared by BNPP for,and is directed at,(a)Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),and(b)where relevant,persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling with

20、in Article 19(5)of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000(Financial Promotion)Order 2005,and at other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated(together“Relevant Persons”)under the regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.Any investment or investment activity to which this document relate

21、s is available only to and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons.Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this document or its content.Securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.The information

22、and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from,or are based on,public sources believed to be reliable,but there is no guarantee of the accuracy,completeness or fitness for any particular purpose of such information and such information may not have been independently verified by BNP

23、P or by any person.None of BNPP,any of its subsidiary undertakings or affiliates or its members,directors,officers,agents or employees accepts any responsibility or liability whatsoever or makes any representation or warranty,express or implied,as to the accuracy and completeness of the information

24、or any opinions based thereon and contained in this document and it should not be relied upon as such.This document does not constitute or form any part of any offer to sell or issue and is not a solicitation of any offer to purchase any financial instrument,nor shall it or any part of it nor the fa

25、ct of its distribution form the basis of,or be relied on,in connection with any contract or investment decision.To the extent that any transaction is subsequently entered into between the recipient and BNPP,such transaction will be entered into upon such terms as may be agreed by the parties in the

26、relevant documentation.Information and opinions contained in this document are published for the information of recipients,but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient,are subject to change without notice and not intended to pr

27、ovide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein.In providing this document,BNPP does not offer investment,financial,legal,tax or any other type of advice to,nor has any fiduciary duties towards,recipients.Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future perfor

28、mance,which may be better or worse than prior results.Any hypothetical,past performance simulations are the result of estimates made by BNPP,as of a given moment,on the basis of parameters,market conditions,and historical data selected by BNPP,and should not be used as guidance,in any way,of future

29、performance.To the fullest extent permitted by law,no BNPP group company accepts any liability whatsoever(including in negligence)for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on material contained in this document even where advised of the possibility of such losses.All e

30、stimates and opinions included in this document are made as of the date of this document.Unless otherwise indicated in this document there is no intention to update this document.BNPP may make a market in,or may,as principal or agent,buy or sell securities of any issuer or person mentioned in this d

31、ocument or derivatives thereon.Prices,yields and other similar information included in this document are included for information purposes however numerous factors will affect market pricing at any particular time,such information may be subject to rapid change and there is no certainty that transac

32、tions could be executed at any specified price.BNPP may have a financial interest in any issuer or person mentioned in this document,including a long or short position in their securities and/or options,futures or other derivative instruments based thereon,or vice versa.BNPP,including its officers a

33、nd employees may serve or have served as an officer,director or in an advisory capacity for any person mentioned in this document.BNPP may,from time to time,solicit,perform or have performed investment banking,underwriting or other services(including acting as adviser,manager,underwriter or lender)w

34、ithin the last 12 months for any person referred to in this document.BNPP may be a party to an agreement with any person relating to the production of this document.BNPP may to the extent permitted by law,have acted upon or used the information contained herein,or the analysis on which it was based,

35、before the document was published.BNPP may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from or in relation to any person mentioned in this document.Any person mentioned in this document may have been provided with relevant sections of this document

36、 prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy.This document is for information purposes only and there is no assurance that a transaction(s)will be entered into on such indicative terms.Any indicative price(s)contained herein have been prepared in good faith in accordance with BN

37、PPs own internal models and calculation methods and/or are based on or use available price sources where considered relevant.Indicative price(s)based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Numerous factors may affect the price(s),which may or may not be taken into account.The

38、refore,these indicative price(s)may vary significantly from indicative price(s)obtained from other sources or market participants.BNPP expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of its own internal models or calculation methods,the accuracy or reliability of any price so

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40、ons could be unwound,(iii)the calculation or estimate of an amount that would be payable following an early termination of the transactions or(iv)the price(s)given to the transactions by BNPP in its own books of account for financial reporting,credit or risk management purposes.As an investment bank

41、 with a wide range of activities,BNPP may face conflicts of interest,which are resolved under applicable legal provisions and internal guidelines.You should be aware,however,that BNPP may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views expressed in this document,either for its own acc

42、ount or for the account of its clients.This document may contain certain performance data based on back-testing,i.e.simulations of performance of a strategy,index or assets as if it had actually existed during a defined period of time.To the extent any such performance data is included,the scenarios

43、,simulations,development expectations and forecasts contained in this document are for illustrative purposes only.All estimates and opinions included in this document constitute the judgment of BNPP and its affiliates as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice.This ty

44、pe of information has inherent limitations which recipients must consider carefully.While the information has been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and other relevant sources,an analysis based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Unlike ac

45、tual performance records,simulated performance returns or scenarios may not necessarily reflect certain market factors such as liquidity constraints,fees and transactions costs.Actual historical or back tested past performance does not constitute an indication of future results or performance.This d

46、ocument is only intended to generate discussion regarding particular products and investments and is subject to change or may be discontinued.We are willing to discuss it with you on the understanding that you have sufficient knowledge,experience and professional advice to understand and make your o

47、wn independent evaluation of the merits and risk of the information and any proposed structures.The information contained herein is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as,a prospectus,an advertisement,a public offering,an offer to sell securities described herein,or solicitation of an

48、offer to buy securities described herein,in Canada,the U.S.or any other province or territory nor shall it be deemed to provide investment,tax,accounting or other advice.Transactions involving the product(s)described in this document may involve a high degree of risk and the value of such transactio

49、ns may be highly volatile.Such risks include,without limitation,risk of adverse or unanticipated market developments,risk of counterparty or issuer default,risk of adverse events involving any underlying reference obligation or entity and risk of illiquidity.In certain transactions,counterparties ma

50、y lose their entire investment or incur an unlimited loss.The information relating to performance contained in this document is illustrative and no assurance is given that any indicated returns,performance or results will be achieved.Moreover,past performance is not indicative of future results.Info

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