ImageVerifierCode 换一换
格式:PDF , 页数:9 ,大小:685.02KB ,
资源ID:3046657      下载积分:2 积分
快捷下载
登录下载
邮箱/手机:
温馨提示:
快捷下载时,用户名和密码都是您填写的邮箱或者手机号,方便查询和重复下载(系统自动生成)。 如填写123,账号就是123,密码也是123。
特别说明:
请自助下载,系统不会自动发送文件的哦; 如果您已付费,想二次下载,请登录后访问:我的下载记录
支付方式: 支付宝扫码支付 微信扫码支付   
验证码:   换一换

加入VIP,免费下载
 

温馨提示:由于个人手机设置不同,如果发现不能下载,请复制以下地址【https://www.wnwk.com/docdown/3046657.html】到电脑端继续下载(重复下载不扣费)。

已注册用户请登录:
账号:
密码:
验证码:   换一换
  忘记密码?
三方登录: QQ登录  

下载须知

1: 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。
2: 试题试卷类文档,如果标题没有明确说明有答案则都视为没有答案,请知晓。
3: 文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
5. 本站仅提供交流平台,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。

版权提示 | 免责声明

本文(巴黎银行-新兴市场-投资策略-巴西:保守的宽松周期 –20190717-7页 (2).pdf)为本站会员(a****2)主动上传,蜗牛文库仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对上载内容本身不做任何修改或编辑。 若此文所含内容侵犯了您的版权或隐私,请立即通知蜗牛文库(发送邮件至admin@wnwk.com或直接QQ联系客服),我们立即给予删除!

巴黎银行-新兴市场-投资策略-巴西:保守的宽松周期 –20190717-7页 (2).pdf

1、17/07/19|FLASHGustavo Arruda,Senior Economist|BNP Paribas do Brasil SA Luca Maia,LATAM FX/IR Strategist|BNP Paribas do Brasil SABrazil Conservative easing cycleKEY MESSAGES We now expect Brazils central bank to start its easing cycle in July,instead of September.The BCB is likely to cut about 100bp

2、in total,we think,in 25bp increments.On balance of risks,we believe the BCB would prefer to stay on the conservative side by cutting less and at a smaller pace,rather than run the risk of having to hike rates too soon.The size of the cycle and the pace of cuts might change if the economy does not re

3、act to the stimulus.The central bank has the green light from the Congress to start the easing cycle from July.In its latest communication,the central bank had indicated that any eventual stimulus would come only in the event of a concrete step forward in fiscal consolidation.Following the recent po

4、sitive step in the pension reform,which are expected to save about BRL850bn in 10 years,BCB should be more comfortable to act now.Both inflation and growth indicate the need for policy action.We now believe that the upcoming monetary policy easing cycle is not a matter of if or when but of how much

5、and how fast.We expect the central bank to be cautious.Between the two known risks of starting an easing cycle,we expect the BCB to be more conservative and run the risk of cutting less than needed,and being obliged to cut for longer and at the end see inflation failing to converge to the target,rat

6、her than run the risk of having to hike rates sooner because of extra aggressiveness.Reasons to be cautious Pending social security reform:Although recentdevelopments were positive,this landmark overhaul stillneeds to pass a second vote in the Lower House inAugust and then to win approval by the Con

7、stitution andJustice Commission in the Senate before beingapproved by 49 of 81 senators in two rounds of votes.All going well,we expect the process to end in lateSeptember or October.Fiscal stimulus:The government is reportedlyconsidering a repeat of the programme that allowedhouseholds to access co

8、mpulsory savings that are nowblocked by law(FGTS).When former president Temerimplemented the measure,it had a sizeable impact on consumption.Although the expectation is for a smaller programme,the size,agenda,or the number of households that are likely to benefit have not yet been determined.In othe

9、r words,the potential boost to demand is of uncertain size and impact.Possible global bounce back:Brazils disappointinggrowth was accompanied by a deceleration in othereconomies.Central banks in advanced and emergingeconomies are now in an easing mode.This quasi-synchronised monetary policy may star

10、t to accelerate orat least stabilise global economic growth.Althoughmonetary policy easing in Brazil is cyclically justified,itshould be viewed in the context of the global economyand monetary policy stance.All told,we believe the BCB will start a conservative easing cycle.Although markets are curre

11、ntly pricing in a high probability of a 50bp cut at the July meeting,we believe the BCB will opt for a more steady process,cutting rates by a marginal 25bp per meeting from the start of the cycle,probably finishing at 5.5%from current 6.5%.The central bank will likely keep the doors open to adjust t

12、he pace of cuts if required by growth and inflation,which should work as a barometer that helps the BCB to gauge the size and timing of the required stimulus.We think a 25bp cut in July seems like a good starting point.After earlier taking profits on the FRA Jan-22s23s receiver and recently on the J

13、ul-20sJan-22s flattener,our strategy team believes that the DI curve remains too steep.This is why they decided to re-enter into Jan-21sJan-25s flatteners.The aim was to get the most out of(a)the term premium model,which still points to premium for 5y tenors;(b)the positive impact of the pension ref

14、orm via structural lower nominal rates in the long end of the curve;and(c)the systemic global compression of rates,to which local IRS are not immune.Additionally,they decided to pay rates in DI April-20 as they see the short end of the curve pricing in a more aggressive monetary policy than what the

15、ir models suggest(see Brazil Take profits on short-end receivers;going into payers).EM ECONOMICS FLASH|LATIN AMERICA17 July 2019 Please refer to important information at the end of this report.MARKET VIEW1 LEGAL NOTICE This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the B

16、NP Paribas group of companies(collectively“BNPP”);it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis,and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report.This document is non-independent research for the p

17、urpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication.This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II.It has not been prep

18、ared in accordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of investment research,and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.The content in this document/communication may also contain“Research”as defined under the MiFID II

19、 unbundling rules.If the document/communication contains Research,it is intended for those firms who are either in scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and have signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages,or firms that are out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and therefo

20、re not required to pay for Research under MiFID II.Please note that it is your firms responsibility to ensure that you do not view or use the Research content in this document if your firm has not signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages,except where your firm is out of scope of

21、 the MiFID II unbundling rules.STEER is a trade mark of BNPP.MARKETS 360 is a trade mark of BNP Paribas This document constitutes a marketing communication and has been prepared by BNPP for,and is directed at,(a)Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by the recast Markets in Fin

22、ancial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),and(b)where relevant,persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5)of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000(Financial Promotion)Order 2005,and at other persons to whom it may lawfully b

23、e communicated(together“Relevant Persons”)under the regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons.Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on t

24、his document or its content.Securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from,or are based on,public sources believed to be reliable,but there is no guara

25、ntee of the accuracy,completeness or fitness for any particular purpose of such information and such information may not have been independently verified by BNPP or by any person.None of BNPP,any of its subsidiary undertakings or affiliates or its members,directors,officers,agents or employees accep

26、ts any responsibility or liability whatsoever or makes any representation or warranty,express or implied,as to the accuracy and completeness of the information or any opinions based thereon and contained in this document and it should not be relied upon as such.This document does not constitute or f

27、orm any part of any offer to sell or issue and is not a solicitation of any offer to purchase any financial instrument,nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of,or be relied on,in connection with any contract or investment decision.To the extent that any trans

28、action is subsequently entered into between the recipient and BNPP,such transaction will be entered into upon such terms as may be agreed by the parties in the relevant documentation.Information and opinions contained in this document are published for the information of recipients,but are not to be

29、 relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient,are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein.In providing this document,BNPP does not offer investment,financi

30、al,legal,tax or any other type of advice to,nor has any fiduciary duties towards,recipients.Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future performance,which may be better or worse than prior results.Any hypothetical,past performance simulations are the result of estimates made by BNPP

31、,as of a given moment,on the basis of parameters,market conditions,and historical data selected by BNPP,and should not be used as guidance,in any way,of future performance.To the fullest extent permitted by law,no BNPP group company accepts any liability whatsoever(including in negligence)for any di

32、rect or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on material contained in this document even where advised of the possibility of such losses.All estimates and opinions included in this document are made as of the date of this document.Unless otherwise indicated in this document there i

33、s no intention to update this document.BNPP may make a market in,or may,as principal or agent,buy or sell securities of any issuer or person mentioned in this document or derivatives thereon.Prices,yields and other similar information included in this document are included for information purposes h

34、owever numerous factors will affect market pricing at any particular time,such information may be subject to rapid change and there is no certainty that transactions could be executed at any specified price.BNPP may have a financial interest in any issuer or person mentioned in this document,includi

35、ng a long or short position in their securities and/or options,futures or other derivative instruments based thereon,or vice versa.BNPP,including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer,director or in an advisory capacity for any person mentioned in this document.BNPP may,f

36、rom time to time,solicit,perform or have performed investment banking,underwriting or other services(including acting as adviser,manager,underwriter or lender)within the last 12 months for any person referred to in this document.BNPP may be a party to an agreement with any person relating to the pro

37、duction of this document.BNPP may to the extent permitted by law,have acted upon or used the information contained herein,or the analysis on which it was based,before the document was published.BNPP may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months f

38、rom or in relation to any person mentioned in this document.Any person mentioned in this document may have been provided with relevant sections of this document prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy.This document is for information purposes only and there is no assurance t

39、hat a transaction(s)will be entered into on such indicative terms.Any indicative price(s)contained herein have been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and calculation methods and/or are based on or use available price sources where considered relevant.Indicative pric

40、e(s)based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Numerous factors may affect the price(s),which may or may not be taken into account.Therefore,these indicative price(s)may vary significantly from indicative price(s)obtained from other sources or market participants.BNPP expre

41、ssly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of its own internal models or calculation methods,the accuracy or reliability of any price sources used,any errors or omissions in computing or disseminating these indicative price(s),and for any use you make of the price(s)provided.

42、The indicative price(s)do not represent(i)the actual terms on which a new transaction could be entered into,(ii)the actual terms on which any existing transactions could be unwound,(iii)the calculation or estimate of an amount that would be payable following an early termination of the transactions

43、or(iv)the price(s)given to the transactions by BNPP in its own books of account for financial reporting,credit or risk management purposes.As an investment bank with a wide range of activities,BNPP may face conflicts of interest,which are resolved under applicable legal provisions and internal guide

44、lines.You should be aware,however,that BNPP may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views expressed in this document,either for its own account or for the account of its clients.This document may contain certain performance data based on back-testing,i.e.simulations of performan

45、ce of a strategy,index or assets as if it had actually existed during a defined period of time.To the extent any such performance data is included,the scenarios,simulations,development expectations and forecasts contained in this document are for illustrative purposes only.All estimates and opinions

46、 included in this document constitute the judgment of BNPP and its affiliates as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice.This type of information has inherent limitations which recipients must consider carefully.While the information has been prepared in good faith in

47、 accordance with BNPPs own internal models and other relevant sources,an analysis based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Unlike actual performance records,simulated performance returns or scenarios may not necessarily reflect certain market factors such as liquidity con

48、straints,fees and transactions costs.Actual historical or back tested past performance does not constitute an indication of future results or performance.This document is only intended to generate discussion regarding particular products and investments and is subject to change or may be discontinue

49、d.We are willing to discuss it with you on the understanding that you have sufficient knowledge,experience and professional advice to understand and make your own independent evaluation of the merits and risk of the information and any proposed structures.The information contained herein is not and

50、under no circumstances is to be construed as,a prospectus,an advertisement,a public offering,an offer to sell securities described herein,or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein,in Canada,the U.S.or any other province or territory nor shall it be deemed to provide investment,t

copyright@ 2008-2023 wnwk.com网站版权所有

经营许可证编号:浙ICP备2024059924号-2