1、*For l i st of aut hor s,see page 2.Bar cl ays Capi t al I nc.and/or one of i t s affi l i at es does and seeks t o do busi ness wi t h c ompani es c over ed i n i t s r esear ch r epor t s.As a r esul t,i nvest or s shoul d be awar e t hat t he f i r m may have a c onf l i ct of i nt er est t hat c
2、 oul d affect t he obj ect i vi t y of t hi s r epor t.I nvest or s shoul d c onsi der t hi s r epor t as onl y a si ngl e f act or i n maki ng t hei r i nvest ment deci si on.Thi s r esear ch r epor t has been pr epar ed i n whol e or i n par t by equi t y r esear ch anal yst s based out si de t he
3、 US who ar e not r egi st er ed/qual i f i ed as r esear ch anal yst s wi t h FI NRA.Pl ease see anal yst cer t i f i cat i ons and i mpor t ant di scl osur es begi nni ng on page 96.SI GNATURE#cl i mat echange#t r ansat l ant i cSust ai nabl e&Themat i c I nvest i ng Sustainable Tourism:A worthwhil
4、e journeyTourism is a double-edged sword that contributes to both economic development and environmental degradation.Driven by our consumer survey and policy momentum,we make the case for sustainable tourism and assess the impact across nine sectors.Sustainable&Thematic InvestingEmily Morrison Hi r
5、al Pat el+44(0)20 7773 9080 +44(0)20 3134 1618emi l y.mor r i sonbar cl ays.c om hi r al.pat el bar cl ays.c om Bar cl ays,UK Bar cl ays,UKEqui t y Resear ch 4 Dec ember 2019Barclays|Sustainable&Thematic Investing 4 December 2019 2 Contributing Authors European Transportation European Transportation
6、 North America Airlines North America Airlines Rishika Savjani,CFA+44(0)20 3134 6488 Barclays,UK Willi Ruppricht+44(0)20 3555 9714 Barclays,UK Brandon R.Oglenski+1 212 526 8903 BCI,US Matthew Wisniewski,CPA+44(0)20 3134 6823 Barclays,UK European Construction,Building Materials&Infrastructure Europea
7、n Construction,Building Materials&Infrastructure U.S.Leisure U.S.Leisure Nabil Ahmed+33(0)1 4458 3141 BBI,Paris Pierre Rousseau+33(0)1 4458 3377 BBI,Paris Felicia R.Hendrix+1 212 526 5562 BCI,US Edward Wendel,CFA+1 212 526 3592 BCI,US European Integrated Oil&Refining European Integrated Oil&Refining
8、 U.S.Aerospace&Defense U.S.Aerospace&Defense Joshua Stone+44(0)20 3134 6694 Barclays,UK Lydia Rainforth,CFA+44(0)20 3134 6669 Barclays,UK David Strauss+1 212 526 5580 BCI,US Matt Akers,CFA+1 212 526 9019 BCI,US European Aerospace&Defense U.S.Gaming&Lodging European Leisure European Leisure Milene Ke
9、rner+33(0)1 4458 4002 BBI,Paris Anthony F.Powell+1 212 526 8768 BCI,US Vicki Stern+44(0)20 3134 6733 Barclays,UK James Rowland Clark+44(0)20 7773 0872 Barclays,UK European Leisure U.S.Internet U.S.Internet Chandni Patel+44(0)207 773 7594 Barclays,UK Ross Sandler+1 415 263 4470 BCI,US Deepak Mathivan
10、an+1 415 274 5351 BCI,US Sustainable&Thematic Investing Sustainable&Thematic Investing Sustainable&Thematic Investing Sustainable&Thematic Investing Sustainable&Thematic Investing Hiral Patel+44(0)20 3134 1618 Barclays,UK Emily Morrison+44(0)20 7773 9080 Barclays,UK Anushka Challawala+44(0)20 3134 2
11、326 Barclays,UK Katherine Ogundiya+44(0)20 3134 1391 Barclays,UK Barclays|Sustainable&Thematic Investing 4 December 2019 3 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.4 THE GLOBAL IMPORTANCE OF SUSTAINABLE TOURISM.7 Tourism is an$8.8 trillion industry.7 Tourism is set to continue growing,worth$13trn by 2029.8 Touris
12、m is particularly impactful in the developing world.9 But tourism is a double-edged sword.10 Therefore,tourism is on the international agenda.12 Consumer expectations around tourism are shifting.14 Barclays Sustainable Tourism Consumer Survey.16 Making the case for sustainable tourism.19 We see thre
13、e stakeholders driving sustainable tourism.19 INVESTOR GUIDEBOOK.25 Sustainable tourisms impacts on multiple industries.25 ESG:Sustainable Tourism.27 Questions for management.28 Barclays SDG Wheel.30 SECTOR IMPLICATIONS ECO-TRAVEL.31 European Airlines.31 North America Airlines.45 Aviation Infrastruc
14、ture.51 Cruise Companies.56 Energy.66 Aerospace&Defence.74 SECTOR IMPLICATIONS ECO-TOURISM.78 US Hotels.78 European Hotels.82 European Tour Operators/Concessions.85 Online Travel Agencies.88 Ride Hailing.91 APPENDIX 1:BARCLAYS SUSTAINABLE TOURISM SURVEY.92 Full survey questions.92 Barclays|Sustainab
15、le&Thematic Investing 4 December 2019 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Tourism is a significant pillar of economic development(contributing$8.8trn to global GDP in 2018),but the associated environmental and social costs make it a double-edged sword.Our Barclays Sustainable Tourism Consumer Survey shows that awar
16、eness of tourisms impact is widespread and many are taking action to reduce these costs.The flight-shaming movement and Greta effect are adding to the consumer momentum and policymakers are starting to take action to enable the tourism industry to become more sustainable.Some destinations are having
17、 to take radical measures to combat the direct effects of over-tourism,including visitor quotas,temporary closures and tourist taxes.We see the new world of tourism being dominated by factors such as carbon offsetting,slow travel,staycations,sustainable aviation fuel and green certification,among ot
18、hers.Whilst companies are already making changes that are aligned with both sustainability and cost-saving goals,we see scope for industry to move ahead of further policy change and use sustainability practices as a point of differentiation.We therefore believe the route to sustainable tourism is a
19、worthwhile journey.Tourism is an$8.8 trillion industry and is set to grow to$13 trillion by 2029(+3.7%CAGR vs 2018),according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.The industry contributed c10%to global GDP in 2018,represented one in ten jobs globally and was the worlds third-largest export catego
20、ry(Figure 1).Tourism is particularly important for developing countries,as it enhances infrastructure investment,while providing employment opportunities and the chance to alleviate poverty.However,tourism is a double-edged sword,directly contributing to climate change and other environmental issues
21、 such as natural resource depletion,environmental pollution and waste.Tourism is estimated to contribute up to 8%of global GHG emissions,according to the UNs World Tourism Organisation,and social impacts from tourism(specifically over-tourism)include congestion,over-crowding,increased costs of livin
22、g and tension between tourists and locals.Some destinations known for over-tourism,like Venice and Machu Picchu,have started to adopt radical measures,such as tourist quotas and ticketing policies.Policymakers are starting to take action to mitigate the negative impacts of tourism,corporates are beg
23、inning to change their travel policies and consumers are also shifting their expectations for sustainability within their holiday plans.To gauge consumers views on how sustainability influences their holiday planning,we have undertaken a survey of 2,058 UK adults and 1,379 US adults our Barclays Sus
24、tainable Tourism Consumer Survey(page 16).We find that the majority of consumers know about the environmental or social impacts of their holidays and many are taking action to reduce these impacts,whether through staycations,changing to a slower mode of transport or using more sustainable accommodat
25、ion providers.We therefore make the case for Sustainable Tourism,which we break down into two parts:1)Eco-Travel covers the mode of transport to get to the destination;and 2)Eco-Tourism tackles the sustainability of the experience once at the destination.We see consumers,policymakers and industry dr
26、iving the new world of sustainable tourism with key factors including carbon offsetting,sustainable aviation fuel,green certification and slow travel.Alongside our sector analysts,we assess the impacts of sustainable tourism in the Sector Implications chapters of this report,mapping out the nine sec
27、tors along our opportunity-and-risk arrow in Figure 2.Although we acknowledge that Airlines are taking action,we consider this sector to be most at risk due to cost and capex implications from policy change,but we argue that the near-term risk of falling consumer demand is mitigated by a current lac
28、k of suitable alternatives.However,we see Energy,particularly renewable fuel producers like Neste,as having the most to gain due to greater demand for sustainable aviation fuel.We think sustainable tourism also has implications for Aviation Infrastructure,Cruise Companies,Aerospace&Defence,Hotels,To
29、ur Operators/Concessions,Online Travel Agencies and Ride Hailing.Although the sectors have already started to adapt,we see potential for companies to move ahead of policy change and capitalise on the consumer trend.To aid company engagement,we also outline key ESG considerations,questions for manage
30、ment and the Barclays SDG Wheel(page 27-30).Why read this report?Within discussions around how to reduce our environmental impact,historically there has been a hesitancy to put too much focus on tourism,due to its importance for both personal and economic development.However,recent newsflow around f
31、light shaming,over-tourism and the Greta effect have opened up this previously ring-fenced area.In this report we shine the spotlight on the broader tourism industry by considering the factors influencing the future of Eco-Travel and Eco-Tourism.Although the industry is starting to change,the pace o
32、f this will largely depend on regulation,the scalability of emerging technology and how consumers adapt their purchasing behaviour.Barclays|Sustainable&Thematic Investing 4 December 2019 5 FIGURE 1 Barclays Sustainable&Thematic Investing Sustainable Tourism Source:Barclays Research,WTTC Barclays|Sus
33、tainable&Thematic Investing 4 December 2019 6 FIGURE 2 Sector implications from Sustainable Tourism Source:Barclays Research Barclays|Sustainable&Thematic Investing 4 December 2019 7 THE GLOBAL IMPORTANCE OF SUSTAINABLE TOURISM Tourism is an important contributor to global GDP and is expected to be
34、worth$13 trillion by 2029.Tourism is particularly important to many developing economies,providing jobs,infrastructure investment and an opportunity to alleviate poverty.However,tourism is a double edged-sword with environmental and social impacts including GHG emissions,resource depletion,waste,ove
35、r-crowding and social conflict.In a world increasingly focused on climate change and with multiple international climate target dates moving closer,tackling the environmental impact of tourism is a viable method of moving the needle and hence is a centre of focus for policymakers.Consumer expectatio
36、ns are also shifting,with the recent rise of flight shaming,and we gauge consumer views through our Barclays Sustainable Tourism Survey(page 16).We therefore make the case for Sustainable Tourism and outline actions being taken by consumers,policymakers and industry to help tourism develop more sust
37、ainably.Tourism is an$8.8 trillion industry Tourism is important for GDP,jobs and global exports Tourism is a significant contributor to global GDP,accounting for 10.4%of global GDP in 2018,according to the World Travel and Tourism Council(WTTC).The sector was worth$8.8trn in 2018(with 70%derived fr
38、om Europe,Northeast Asia and North America)and was the second fastest growing sector(+3.6%,2017)behind manufacturing.The continued rise in the emerging middle class and solid growth in consumer spending has enabled tourisms growth to outpace global GDP(+3.2%)for the fourth consecutive year(Figure 3)
39、.FIGURE 3 Tourisms growth outpaced global GDP growth for the fourth consecutive year Source:World Travel and Tourism Council Data Gateway,IMF.Tourism contributed 319 million jobs in 2018,representing one in ten jobs globally as well as one in five of all new jobs created.Tourism is also the worlds t
40、hird-largest export category after chemicals and fuels(Figure 4),accounting for c7%of global exports and c30%of global services exports.FIGURE 4 Tourism is the worlds 3rd largest export(earnings by product category,$bn)Source:World Tourism Organization(UNWTO)and World Trade Organization(WTO).Note:20
41、17 data.-4%-2%0%2%4%6%2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018Tourisms contribution to GDP growthReal GDP growth1,466 1,470 1,586 1,960 1,993 05001,0001,5002,0002,500FoodAutomotive productsInternational tourismFuelsChemicalsBarclays|Sustainable&Thematic Investing
42、4 December 2019 8 Tourism is set to continue growing,worth$13trn by 2029 The WTTC forecast tourisms contribution to GDP will increase by 3.7%CAGR vs 2018 to be worth$13 trillion by 2029(Figure 5),representing 11.5%of global GDP.Tourism is also forecast to support 420mn jobs by 2029,an increase of 2.
43、5%CAGR compared with 2018.FIGURE 5 Tourisms contribution to GDP is expected to grow 3.7%CAGR 2018-2029 Source:World Travel and Tourism Council Data Gateway.Note:At 2018 prices.Spend from both domestic and international tourists set to rise 71%of tourism spend is from domestic tourists,compared with
44、29%from international tourists(Figure 6).The domestic spend is forecast to increase an average 3.7%pa until 2029 and international visitor spend is forecast to increase by 3.8%pa on average to remain in roughly the same proportions as today.Leisure represents 78%of travel spend in 2018(Figure 7)but
45、is forecast to grow faster than business spend(+3.9%vs+3.2%pa respectively)so that leisure represents 80%by 2029.FIGURE 6 Domestic tourism outweighs international FIGURE 7 Leisure accounts for most tourism spend Source:World Travel and Tourism Council(2019).2029E WTTC(2019)Source:World Travel and To
46、urism Council(2019).2029E WTTC(2019)International tourist spending set to increase to c$2.5trn by 2029 The money spent by foreign visitors to a country is a key component of tourisms contribution to global GDP.The WTTC estimate that in 2018,the world generated c$1.6trn from international visitor spe
47、nd and this is expected to grow at 3.8%CAGR to reach c$2.5trn by 2029.As per Figure 8,international tourist arrivals have grown from 25 million globally in 1950 to 278 million in 1980,674 million in 2000,and 1.4 billion in 2018.Between 1980 and 2000,arrivals grew at a 4.6%CAGR,which slowed to 4.1%CA
48、GR between 2000 and 2018.By 2029,the WTTC forecast international tourist arrivals to reach almost 2.2 billion,representing a CAGR of c4%over the next decade.02468101214200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029Tourisms Con
49、tribution to GDP-$trn,2018 pricesPredicted valuesDomestic Tourists,71%2029E 71%International Tourists,29%2029E 29%Tourism Spend2018Leisure,78%2029E 80%Business,22%2029E 20%Tourism Spend2018Barclays|Sustainable&Thematic Investing 4 December 2019 9 FIGURE 8 International tourist arrivals grew to 1.4bn
50、 in 2018 Source:UNWTO-World Tourism Barometer(2019)Tourism is particularly impactful in the developing world Emerging economies benefit from increasing international travellers Although 51%of international tourists arrive in Europe,developing nations are growing in popularity.Asia is the second most