1、2018 Outlook for Energy:A View to 20402Visit to Follow exxonmobilFollow Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobils view of energy demand and supplythrough 2040.We use the Outlook to help inform our long-term businessstrategies and investment plans.A significant energy tra
2、nsition is underway,and many factors will shape theworlds energy future.These include government ambitions and policies thatseek to promote prosperity while also addressing the risks of climate change.The recent Paris Agreement1 on climate change provided significant insights on governments intentio
3、ns to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions through the inclusion in the agreement of nationally determined contributions(NDCs).Policies adopted to support NDCs will likely affect supply and use ofenergy across society.To support economic progress and make substantial progress on the climategoals iden
4、tified in the Paris Agreement,well-designed and transparent policyapproaches that carefully weigh costs and benefits are needed.Such policies are likely to help manage the risks of climate change while also enablingsocieties to pursue other high-priority goals including clean air and water,access to
5、 reliable,affordable energy and economic progress for all people.Technology will also be vital to improve living standards while addressing climaterisks.Advances continue to reshape the energy playing field.Many technologiesnot prevalent five to 10 years ago have a more significant role today,and th
6、eirimpacts will continue to expand.Examples include wind and solar power,unconventional oil and gas development,and electric cars.Meeting the dualchallenge of mitigating the risks of climate change while boosting standards ofliving will require additional technology advances.While policies and techn
7、ologies help shape living standards and the evolution of energy,they also disrupt the status quo and can cause uncertainty andunexpected consequences.Accordingly,as part of the Outlook developmentprocess,we develop and use sensitivities to help our understanding of possibleenergy outcomes.This years
8、 Outlook includes several sensitivities on specific areas of interest toprovide greater perspective on how changes to our base Outlook assumptionscould affect the energy landscape.This years Outlook also includes a new section,“Pursuing a 2oC Pathway.”This section utilizes work coordinated by the En
9、ergy Modeling Forum at Stanford University.2 It provides a view of potential pathways toward a 2oCclimate goal,and the implications such pathways might have in terms of globalenergy intensity,carbon intensity of the worlds energy mix and global demandfor various energy sources.The section concludes
10、with a discussion of the need to pursue practical,cost-effective solutions to address multiple goals simultaneously.The Outlook anticipates significant changes through 2040 across the world toboost living standards,reshape the use of energy,broaden access to abundantenergy supplies,and accelerate de
11、carbonization of the worlds energy system toaddress the risks of climate change.A role for everyoneSeven billion people shape the worlds energy system and have a direct impacton the fundamental drivers of energy demand.Energy impacts the economy aswell as security and environmental goals.Energy solu
12、tions can vary over timeand circumstances.Think about how access to energy affects your own life,and how that translates to billions of other people around the world.Compare yourown conclusions on the energy future with those in the Outlook.Energy is fundamental to modern life,and as the worlds popu
13、lation approaches9 billion people in 2040,we are challenged to improve living standardseverywhere.We expect that progress will be powered by human ingenuity and the energy that helps make better lives possible.3Visit to Follow exxonmobilFollow takeaways at a glanceKey trends that will play a definin
14、g role in our global energy landscape through 2040.4Visit to Follow exxonmobilFollow Outlook for EnergyContents 3 Key Takeaways 6 Fundamentals11 Demand14 Transportation18 Residential and commercial21 Industrial25 Electricity and power generation29 Emissions32 Supply 34 Liquids37 Natural gas42 Sensit
15、ivities44 Pursuing a 2oC pathway54 Energy matters55 Data61 Glossary5Visit to Follow exxonmobilFollow growthDemand for servicesEnergy sourcesPolicy/tech changesTest uncertaintyWe create a starting pointfor our projections usingInternational Energy Agency(IEA)annual data,along with third-party data an
16、d recentenergy trends.These drivers,along withconsumer preferences,help usdetermine demand for energyacross 15 sectors,coveringneeds for personal mobility,electricity in buildings,production of steel,cement andchemicals,plus many others.We actively monitor changes in technology and policies and comp
17、are our views of theOutlook to a variety of third-party estimates.We then match the demand for energy services with about 20 types of energy(e.g.,diesel),taking intoaccount potential evolution of technology,policies,infrastructure and more.We also run sensitivities(i.e.,changes to our baseassumption
18、s)to assess the impact on our forecastif things were to play out differently.Since population and livingstandards drive energy demand,we forecast demographic andeconomic trends for about 100 regions covering the world.Behind the scenesHow we forecast to 2040ExxonMobil uses a data-driven,bottom-up ap
19、proach to produce a most-likely view of future energy demand and supply.6Visit to Follow exxonmobilFollow Outlook for EnergyFundamentalsWhat will the worlds energy picture look like in the future?To answer this question,we need to start by analyzing the worldslong-term demographic and economic trend
20、s.By 2040,world population is expected to reach 9.2 billion people,upfrom 7.4 billion today.Over that same period,global GDP will likelydouble.As a result,per capita GDP is projected to rise significantly,particularly in the non-member countries of the Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Devel
21、opment(OECD).Billions of peopleare expected to join the global middle class.Rising living standards for expanding populations worldwide mean adependence on reliable modern energy.Combined,they are expectedto help drive up global energy demand by about 25 percent by theyear 2040.That is roughly equiv
22、alent to adding another NorthAmerica and Latin America to the worlds current energy demand.The world will need to pursue all economic energy sources to keep up with this considerable demand growth.7Visit to Follow exxonmobilFollow StatesFinlandGermanyChinaIndiaJapanSingaporeSouth KoreaKuwait2.52.01.
23、51.00.50.0World demographics continue to shiftBillions of peopleAge 0-14Age 15-64Age 65+25 OECDChinaOther Asia PacificNon-OECDAfricaIndiaRest of WorldSource:World Bank,ExxonMobil estimates 2016 GDP per capitaThousands of purchasing power parity dollars Energy plays a critical role in supporting risi
24、ng modern living standards around the world Electricity use per capita is one important measure of energy consumption A countrys electricity use per capita is well-aligned with its income level About half of the global population resides in countries where average electricity demandper person is les
25、s than the annual consumption of basic household appliances About 1 billion people still lack access to electricity Global population grows from 7.4 billion today to 9.2 billion people in 2040 Africas population increases at the fastest rate across major regions;it also has the largest working-age p
26、opulation across regions by 2040 India likely to replace China as the most populous nation by 2025,with a significant increase in working-age population Chinas population will gradually trend down post 2030;its working-age population has already peaked,and its share of population age 65+increases ra
27、pidly OECD working-age population flattens while the 65+group continues to growHalf of global population2018 Outlook for EnergyFundamentalsGlobal fundamentals projectionsPopulation2016 Electricity demand per capita Kilowatt-hour(kWh)per person Energy supports living standards40 16 8Visit to Follow e
28、xxonmobilFollow 16-25 25-4080-16 16-25 25-401601208040020002010202020302040World GDP doublesTrillions of 2010 dollarsAttributable topopulationAttributable toincomeNon-OECDOECD6050403020100OECDNon-OECDEurope UnitedStates China Africa India 1.9%AnnualAverageGrowthRate4.1%Annual Average Growth RateWorl
29、d GDP growthTrillions of 2010 dollarsOECDNon-OECD Economic output(GDP)growth consists of both income(measured by GDP per capita)and population growth Projected OECD GDP growth trend reflects declining population growth and steady rise of income Non-OECD GDP growth to 2025 expected to rise above hist
30、orical average,reflecting higher income growth and slower population growth Non-OECD GDP growth post-2025 projected to moderate as population growth slows further,while income growth is largely maintained World GDP likely to double from 2016 to 2040,with non-OECD GDP increasing about 165 percent,and
31、 OECD GDP growing about 60 percent Non-OECD share of global GDP will rise to about 50 percent by 2040,up from about 35 percent in 2016 China is likely to be the largest contributor to GDP gains,with growth similar to that of Europe OECD and the United States combined India will grow strongly,with it
32、s share of global GDP doubling2018 Outlook for EnergyFundamentals GDP growth Year-over-year average percent(%)Non-OECD leads economic expansionGlobal fundamentals projectionsOther Other Other AsiaPacific9Visit to Follow exxonmobilFollow middle-class growthUnited States Europe OECD China World India
33、Other Asia Pacific Non-OECD Latin America Europe Asia Pacific North America Africa/Middle East Global middle class billions of people All regions show significant gains in income by 2040 GDP per capita in OECD nations currently averages about four times that of non-OECD economies China GDP per capit
34、a is likely to triple to more than$40,000 by 2040,similar to Europe OECD levels of purchasing power in 2030 India GDP per capita is also expected to triple,but will be less than half of Chinas level by 2040 Africa GDP per capita is expected to increase by 50 percent,still trailing other emerging mar
35、kets significantly Middle class to expand globally,growing about 80 percent by 2030 to reach more than 5 billion people;most of the growth comes from non-OECD countries The rising middle class means billions of people with longer,healthier and better lives Asia Pacific represents the largest increas
36、e,with India and China each reaching more than 1 billion middle-class citizens Africa/Middle East and Latin America are also expected to increase,while North America and Europe hold their middle-class population steadySource:The Brookings Institution 2018 Outlook for EnergyFundamentalsGlobal fundame
37、ntals projectionsGDP per capita thousands of purchasing power parity dollarsPurchasing power expandsAfrica10Visit to Follow exxonmobilFollow Global energy demand grows more slowly than world GDP,implying falling energyintensity(amount of energy used to produce a unit of GDP)From 2000 to 2016,energy
38、intensity declined about 1 percent per year,the rate ofimprovement from 2016 to 2040 is likely to approach 2 percent per year Meanwhile,the carbon intensity of energy(CO2 content per unit of energy used)hasbeen fairly flat;the pace of improvement is likely to pick up from 2016 to 2040 The combined e
39、ffect is reflected in decreasing carbon intensity of the world economy(tonnes CO2 per unit of GDP),which is expected to be nearly 45 percent lower by 2040 as global energy demand rises about 25 percent Technology helps us do more with less1,2001,000800600400200020002010202020302040Global efficiency
40、limits demand growthEnergy demand quadrillion British thermal units(BTUs)OECD Energy savings China India Other Asia Pacific Non-OECD Rest of World 2016 Energy demand CO2 per unit of energy Energy per unit of GDP CO2 per unit of GDP Index,1990=100 Despite growing population,global energy demand is ex
41、pected to increase about 25 percent from 2016 to 2040,reflecting large savings due to efficiency improvements Without energy savings enabled by gains in energy efficiency of the worlds economyglobal energy demand could nearly double by 2040 Demand growth will come from non-OECD nations,led by China
42、and India,where energy use is expected to rise about 40 percent Demand in other Asia Pacific nations,Africa/Middle East and Latin America is similarly projected to grow strongly2018 Outlook for EnergyFundamentalsGlobal fundamentals projections11Visit to Follow exxonmobilFollow Outlook for EnergyDema
43、ndGlobal energy demand will continue to rise through 2040,reflecting its fundamental link to growing prosperity and better living standards for an increasing population worldwide.Energy efficiency improvements will help curb the growth in globalenergy demand to about 25 percent over the period to 20
44、40,whileglobal economic output nearly doubles.To put this in perspective,ifworld energy demand grew as fast as estimated GDP,energy demandgrowth could be about four times the projected amount.Emerging markets in non-OECD nations will account for essentiallyall energy demand growth,led by the expandi
45、ng economies in theAsia Pacific region.Continuing urbanization and a significant expansion of the middleclass,particularly in China and India,will help drive this trend,highlighted by greater access to modern energy in homes,risingindustrial demand,and significant increases in personal andcommercial
46、 transportation needs.Electrification and gradual decarbonization continue as significantglobal trends.Energy demand for power generation accounts forabout 50 percent of global demand growth.Energy sources shifttoward cleaner fuels such as natural gas,renewables and nuclear.12Visit to Follow exxonmo
47、bilFollow Global energy demand varies by sectorEnergy demand shifts toward non-OECD16 25 40 Other renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal Natural gasOil United States Other OECD China India Other Non-OECD Europe OECD Percent of primary energy(%)Energy used in each sector reflects economic supply options and
48、 their generalfitness for purpose Electricity generation is the largest and fastest-growing demand sector,reflectingstrong growth in global electricity demand A wide variety of energy types will support electricity generation,with natural gas,renewables and nuclear increasing their share Natural gas
49、 demand increases significantly and gains share in all sectors Oil demand grows to support commercial transportation and chemical needs Global demand reaches 680 quadrillion British thermal units in 2040,up nearly 25 percent Non-OECD share of global energy demand reaches about 70 percent in 2040,as
50、efficiency gains and slowing economic growth in the United States and OECDnations help keep energy demand relatively flat China and India contribute about 45 percent of world energy demand growth The combined share of energy used in the United States and in European OECDnations will decline from abo