1、Chi nas customi zed furni ture i ndustry though faci ng headwi nds from a property downcycl e and i ntensi fyi ng competi ti on,especi al l y i n the furni ture mal l channel offers a si gni ficant consol i dati on opportuni ty i n a vast,yet fragmented,market.Goi ng forward,we expect i ndustry l ea
2、ders to gradual l y,but consi stentl y,gai n share from smal l er pl ayers.We expect i ndustry l eaders,whi ch enj oy manufacturi ng and di stri buti on advantages,to benefit from the ri si ng porti on of furbi shed new properti es,accel erati ng thei r market share concentrati on.Developers channel
3、:Long-term revenue opportunity for leading players Accordi ng to Al l Vi ew Cl oud(AVC),c.4.6mn uni ts of furbi shed new properti es were sol d i n 2018,23%of the total new properti es sol d.The number i s expected to ri se to 6.1mn by 2020E based on the 13th Fi ve-Year Pl an.I n compari son,Suofei
4、ya,a l eadi ng wardrobe manufacturer,onl y had 0.6mn customers i n 2018.Hence,we bel i eve capturi ng even a smal l porti on of thi s growi ng segment wi l l transl ate i nto consi derabl e growth for furni ture compani es.Furthermore,we expect stri ngent requi rements on product speci ficati ons,de
5、l i very ti me and payment peri od wi l l mai nl y benefit l arge pl ayers wi th superi or financi al and di stri butor resources.Initiating on two market leaders;reiterate Buy on Suofeiya with 34%upside We expect Oppei n,a domi nant pl ayer i n ki tchen cabi nets and the devel opers channel,to grow
6、 revenue/net profit by 16%/13%CAGRs i n 2019E-20E,dri ven by:1)category expansi on;2)per-store sal es growth;and 3)conti nued i nvestment i n manufacturi ng expansi on.However,with the shares trading in l ine(6%downside)with our 12-month discounted EV/EBI TDA-based target price of Rmb82.0,we initiat
7、e at Neutral.Guangzhou Shangpi n has di fferenti ated i tsel f wi th more di rect-owned and shoppi ng mal l based stores,and a l arge revenue contri buti on from outsourced products.However,gi ven rel ati vel y l ess di fferenti ati on i n i ts furni ture products,we expect revenue growth to decel e
8、rate sharpl y i n 2019E,posi ng downsi de ri sk to the currentl y hi gh val uati on.We initiate at Sel l with a 12-m discounted EV/EBI TDA-based target price of Rmb49.0,impl ying 21%downside.We conti nue to favor Suofei ya for i ts i ndustry-l eadi ng manufacturi ng capabi l i ti es and di stri buto
9、r network.Reiterate Buy with 34%upside potential.Nicolas Yi+86(21)2401-8922|ni col as.yi Bei j i ng Gao Hua Securi ti es Company Li mi tedChina Consumer Durables Customized f urniture:Setting the tabl e Initiate Oppein at Neutral,Shangpin at Sel l;reiterate Buy on Suof eiya19 December 2018|8:06PM CS
10、TGol dman Sachs does and seeks to do busi ness wi th compani es covered i n i ts research reports.As a resul t,i nvestors shoul d be aware that the firm may have a confli ct of i nterest that coul d affect the obj ecti vi ty of thi s report.I nvestors shoul d consi der thi s report as onl y a si ngl
11、 e factor i n maki ng thei r i nvestment deci si on.For Reg AC certi ficati on and other i mportant di scl osures,see the Di scl osure Appendi x,or go to ysts empl oyed by non-US affil i ates are not regi stered/qual i fied as research anal ysts wi th FI NRA i n the U.S.PM Summary:I ni ti ati ng on
12、two customi zed furni ture manufacturers;l ong-term opportuni ty from devel opers channel3 Devel opers channel -The l ong-term growth avenue6 Oppei n:A ki tchen cabi net l eader and expandi ng i nto other segments,val uati on seems fai r,i ni ti ate at Neutral10 Guangzhou Shangpi n:Hi gh val uati on
13、 not j usti fied by di fferenti ated busi ness model,i ni ti ate at Sel l25 Suofei ya-Attracti ve val uati on for an i ndustry l eader,rei terate Buy38 Di scl osure Appendi x41 19 December 2018 2Goldman SachsChina Consumer DurablesTable of Contents PM Summary:Initiating on two customized furniture m
14、anufacturers;long-term opportunity from developers channel Customi zed furni ture manufacturers pri mari l y sel l through retai l channel s i n Chi na.Recentl y they have been payi ng more attenti on to the devel opers channel ami d property demand sl owdown and i ntensi fyi ng competi ti on i n re
15、tai l channel s.Accordi ng to AVC,onl y 23%of new properti es sol d were furbi shed i n Chi na i n 1H18.Per the 13th Fi ve-Year Pl an,the rati o i s expected to ri se to 30%i n 2020E dri ven by a combi nati on of favorabl e government pol i ci es and di fferenti ated competi ti on strategi es especi
16、 al l y from l eadi ng real estate devel opers.I n our vi ew,such penetrati on avenues wi l l present a si gni ficant revenue opportuni ty and pri mari l y benefit l eadi ng furni ture manufacturers wi th better financi al and di stri butor resources.We expect Suofei ya and Oppei n,the two key pl ay
17、ers i n the segment,to be the maj or benefici ari es of the trend gi ven thei r conti nuous i nvestment i n manufacturi ng capabi l i ti es and establ i shed di stri butor network.Suofeiya(Buy;12-m TP:Rmb24.4)We conti nue to favor Suofei ya as a maj or benefici ary of a structural growth i n customi
18、 zed furni ture i ndustry,due to i ts l eadi ng manufacturi ng capabi l i ti es and di stri butor network.Al though,i ndustry i s faci ng headwi nds from a short-term property downcycl e(for detai l s,r efer to Chi na Real Estate:Sl ower pr oper ty i nvestment i n 2019;consol i dati on to accel er a
19、te,publ i shed on November 23,2018)and i ntensi fied competi ti on,we expect Suofei ya to mi ti gate the growth headwi nds by l aunchi ng more qual i ty products and i mprovi ng competi ti veness of i ts di stri butors by both provi di ng more financi al support and repl aci ng l ess effici ent di s
20、tri butors.Moreover,we expect devel opers channel to contri bute more to revenue growth i n comi ng years as the company conti nues cooperati ng wi th l arge devel opers and i nvesti ng i n manufacturi ng faci l i ti es.We expect revenue/net profit CAGR of 19%/16%i n 2019E-20E.With the stock current
21、l y trading at 15X 2019E P/E(vs.its 6-year median 12-m forward P/E of 27X),we reiterate Buy on the stock.Oppein(Neutral;12-m TP:Rmb82.0)Oppein-At a gl ance The l argest pl ayer in China kitchen cabinet market by revenue size:The pany deri ved Rmb5.4bn revenue from ki tchen cabi net busi ness i n 201
22、7,greater than the sum of No.2-No.4 l i sted pl ayers.Recentl y Oppei n has been l everagi ng i ts strong brand i n ki tchen cabi net segment to expand i nto other product categori es such as wardrobe,wooden door,etc.One of the strongest distributor networks characterized by both extensive 2.reach a
23、nd efficiency.By 1H18,the company had 6,711 stores across di fferent product categori es and ti ers of ci ti es,the l argest among al l competi tors.The company has the hi ghest per store sal es for ki tchen cabi net and has been rampi ng up qui ckl y i n the wardrobe segment as of 1H18.19 December
24、2018 3Goldman SachsChina Consumer DurablesA l eader in devel opers market.Oppei n deri ved Rmb964mn from the devel opers 3.channel i n 2017,hi ghest among i ts l i sted competi tors.The company has been partnered wi th l eadi ng devel opers for a l ong ti me and has devel oped an experi enced networ
25、k di stri butors for devel opers to expand the busi ness and al l evi ate cash flow ri sks.I nvestment thesis We expect Oppei ns revenue to be dri ven by both new product category penetrati on and channel expansi on.We expect Oppei n to l everage i ts strong brand and di stri butor network i n ki tc
26、hen cabi net segment to dri ve up sal es i n other products such as wardrobes.On the other hand,we expect Oppei n to conti nue i ts expansi on i n both retai l and devel opers channel,uti l i zi ng i ts strong di stri butor network.However,we expect the margi ns to gradual l y trend down due to hi g
27、her competi ti on and i ncreasi ng share of devel oper revenue.Factori ng i n the above,we expect revenue/net profit CAGR of 16%/13%i n 2019E-20E.Our 12-m target pri ce i s deri ved by appl yi ng a 12X exi t mul ti pl e to 2021E EBI TDA and di scounti ng back to 2018E at 9%COE.Wi th 6%downsi de to o
28、ur TP,we i ni ti ate on Oppei n wi th a Neutral rati ng.Guangzhou Shangpin(Sell;12-m TP:Rmb49.0)Shangpin-At a gl ance A Leading customized furniture manufacturer with a unique channel strategy:1.We expect Shangpi n to deri ve c.39%of i ts total revenue i n 2018E from di rectl y-owned stores,vs.onl y
29、 2%-3%for Suofei ya and Oppei n.Due to the opex-i ntensi ve nature of i ts channel strategy,Shangpi n has had much l ower profitabi l i ty compared to Suofei ya and Oppei n.However,si nce l ate 2017,Shangpi n has started focusi ng on an aggressi ve franchi se-dri ven strategy,recrui ti ng mul ti pl
30、e di stri butors i n each ci ty(vs.onl y 1 or 2 for Suofei ya and Oppei n)to dri ve up revenue growth.Shopping mal l based store l ocation+onl ine marketing strategy:Shangpi n has 2.over 50%of i ts stores i n shoppi ng mal l s(vs.20%for Suofei ya),whi ch,i n our vi ew,hel ps i t to avoi d hi gh comp
31、eti ti on i n furni ture mal l s.The company uti l i zes onl i ne marketi ng strategy i ncl udi ng i ts own websi te and other pl atforms such as Bai du and Taobao to funnel customer traffic to i ts shoppi ng mal l stores.Higher contribution from outsourced products:Shangpi n i s expected to deri ve
32、 c.3.20%of revenue from sal es of outsourced products i n 2018E based on our esti mates.(vs.4%for Suofei ya i n 2018E)I nvestment thesis We expect Shangpi ns revenue growth to be dri ven by i ncreasi ng franchi se store openi ngs and growth of outsourced products,however,at a decl i ni ng pace.We ex
33、pect more store cl osures and sl ower per store sal es growth as newl y recrui ted di stri butors face more pressure duri ng the i ndustry downcycl e i n 2019E.On the other hand,we expect the sal es growth of outsourced products to decel erate al ong wi th the sal es from i ts customi zed furni ture
34、 segment.On the margi n si de,we expect GPM to trend down 19 December 2018 4Goldman SachsChina Consumer Durablesdue to ri si ng share of l ow-margi n franchi se revenue and outsourced products sal es.Factori ng i n the above,we expect revenue/net profit CAGR of 18%/17%i n 2019E-20E.Our 12-m target p
35、ri ce i s based on an 11X exi t mul ti pl e appl i ed to i ts 2021E EBI TDA and di scounted back to 2018E at 9%COE.Wi th 21%downsi de,we i ni ti ate on Guangzhou Shangpi n wi th a Sel l rati ng.Exhibit 1:Global appliances,furniture and automation comp 2017A2018E2019E2020E2017A2018E2019E2020E2017A201
36、8E2019E2020EChina appliancesMidea Group000333.SZCNY38.81 50.00 29%Buy37.0 14%14.8x12.6x11.6x9.8x3.5x3.0 x2.6x2.3x10.9x8.3x7.6x6.2xGree Electric000651.SZCNY36.80 44.00 20%Neutral32.1 -2%9.9x7.8x9.0 x8.1x3.4x2.7x2.3x1.9x4.9x3.5x3.8x3.3xHaier Electronics1169.HKHKD18.54 23.90 29%Buy*6.6 12%13.7x12.0 x10
37、.9x9.6x2.1x1.9x1.7x1.5x7.2x6.1x5.2x4.2xLittle Swan000418.SZCNY45.84 47.00 3%Neutral4.2 15%19.2x18.9x17.3x14.3x4.1x3.7x3.3x2.9x16.6x15.3x13.3x10.5xHangzhou Robam002508.SZCNY22.08 23.40 6%Neutral3.0 7%14.3x13.7x12.7x11.9x4.0 x3.5x3.0 x2.7x22.1x9.9x9.2x8.2xMedian20%6.6 12%14.3x12.6x11.6x9.8x3.5x3.0 x2.
38、6x2.3x10.9x8.3x7.6x6.2xChina furnitureSuofeiya002572.SZCNY18.31 24.40 33%Buy2.5 16%18.6x16.7x14.6x12.5x3.8x3.4x3.0 x2.6x23.8x10.3x8.9x7.5xOppein603833.SSCNY87.67 82.00 -6%Neutral5.3 13%28.4x22.0 x19.9x17.4x5.9x5.0 x4.2x3.6x26.5x16.1x14.2x12.2xGZSP300616.SZCNY62.33 49.00 -21%Sell1.8 17%32.6x24.4x21.2
39、x17.8x4.7x4.2x3.7x3.3x32.9x23.2x19.4x14.7xMedian-6%2.5 16%28.4x22.0 x19.9x17.4x4.7x4.2x3.7x3.3x26.5x16.1x14.2x12.2xChina LED lightingOpple Lighting603515.SSCNY27.99 32.00 14%Neutral3.1 12%30.8x24.6x23.1x19.5x5.8x5.0 x4.4x3.9x28.2x23.9x21.7x17.6xMedian14%3.1 12%30.8x24.6x23.1x19.5x5.8x5.0 x4.4x3.9x28
40、.2x23.9x21.7x17.6xGlobal appliancesElectroluxELUXb.STSEK190 208 9%Neutral6.0 19%9.6x15.4x12.2x10.9x2.7x2.5x2.3x2.1x6.8x5.3x5.4x5.0 xDaikin6367.TJPY12,240 15,000 23%Neutral31.6 3%23.2x18.9x19.3x17.9x3.2x2.8x2.5x2.2x10.0 x10.7x10.0 x9.0 xPanasonic6752.TJPY1,068 1,800 69%Buy21.9 6%16.6x10.6x9.6x9.3x1.6
41、x1.4x1.3x1.2x4.6x5.3x3.3x3.0 xArcelikARCLK.ISTRY15.25 19.90 30%Neutral1.9 50%12.2x15.5x8.9x6.9x1.5x1.4x1.3x1.1x10.3x7.7x6.0 x5.1xMedian27%13.9 13%14.4x15.4x10.9x10.1x2.1x2.0 x1.8x1.6x8.4x6.5x5.7x5.0 xGlobal automationFanuc6954.TJPY16,850 21,000 25%Neutral28.8 -11%25.6x18.0 x18.8x22.6x2.4x2.2xn.a.n.a
42、.16.0 x15.4x11.0 x11.3xYaskawa6506.TJPY2,977 3,900 31%Buy7.0 4%38.9x19.9x17.4x18.2x4.0 x3.4x3.1x2.8x10.4x14.3x11.1x11.0 xABBABBN.SCHF19.2 Not Rated41.5 23%19.1x17.8x14.0 x11.8x2.8x2.7xn.a.n.a.11.1x8.8x7.7x6.9xMedian28%28.8 4%25.6x18.0 x17.4x18.2x2.8x2.7x3.1x2.8x11.1x14.3x11.0 x11.0 x P/EP/BEV/EBITDA
43、CompanyTickerPCYLast closing priceTarget priceUpside/(downside)Rating Mkt Cap(US$bn)18E-20E EPS CAGR2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020EChina appliancesMidea Group000333.SZCNY38.81 50.00 29%Buy23%23%21%22%17%15%14%15%3%4%4%5%8%10%8%11%Gree E
44、lectric000651.SZCNY36.80 44.00 20%Neutral37%38%27%26%17%20%13%11%0%5%4%5%6%12%7%6%Haier Electronics1169.HKHKD18.54 23.90 29%Buy*16%15%15%15%81%44%40%40%1%2%2%2%6%2%7%8%Little Swan000418.SZCNY45.84 47.00 3%Neutral20%18%17%18%27%25%27%34%2%2%3%3%6%9%9%9%Hangzhou Robam002508.SZCNY22.08 23.40 6%Neutral3
45、1%27%25%24%28%48%20%33%2%4%4%4%3%14%8%8%Median20%23%23%21%22%27%25%20%33%2%4%4%4%6%10%8%8%China furnitureSuofeiya002572.SZCNY18.31 24.40 33%Buy20%20%20%21%30%26%26%25%1%3%3%4%0%2%2%2%Oppein603833.SSCNY87.67 82.00 -6%Neutral29%25%23%22%52%42%33%30%1%1%2%2%0%0%0%2%GZSP300616.SZCNY62.33 49.00 -21%Sell2
46、2%18%19%20%49%28%47%49%1%1%2%2%3%1%2%6%Median-6%22%20%20%21%49%28%33%30%1%1%2%2%0%1%2%2%China LED lightingOpple Lighting603515.SSCNY27.99 32.00 14%Neutral20%22%20%21%22%26%28%33%1%1%2%2%4%5%5%5%Median14%20%22%20%21%22%26%28%33%1%1%2%2%4%5%5%5%Global appliancesElectroluxELUXb.STSEK190 208 9%Neutral30
47、%23%20%20%16%12%12%12%3%5%5%5%7%2%4%6%Daikin6367.TJPY12,240 15,000 23%Neutral14%15%13%13%14%19%20%20%1%1%1%1%6%6%5%6%Panasonic6752.TJPY1,068 1,800 69%Buy8%13%13%12%8%12%12%12%2%2%3%3%3%3%7%8%ArcelikARCLK.ISTRY15.25 19.90 30%Neutral13%9%15%17%16%11%13%14%3%2%4%5%-4%-13%-6%9%Median27%14%14%14%15%15%12
48、%12%13%3%2%4%4%4%3%4%7%Global automationFanuc6954.TJPY16,850 21,000 25%Neutral9%13%11%9%16%24%17%14%2%2%5%3%1%2%5%3%Yaskawa6506.TJPY2,977 3,900 31%Buy11%18%18%16%13%17%18%16%1%1%2%2%4%3%3%4%ABBABBN.SCHF19.2 Not Rated20%21%22%24%10%11%12%13%3%4%6%6%5%6%8%9%Median28%11%18%18%16%13%17%17%14%2%2%5%3%4%3
49、%5%4%Dividend yieldFCF yieldROECROCICompanyTickerPCYLast closing priceTarget priceUpside/(downside)Rating Notes:*Denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List.TPs are on a 12-month time f rame.Prices as of 12/18/2018 Source:Bl oomberg,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Research,Gao Hua Securities
50、Research19 December 2018 5Goldman SachsChina Consumer DurablesDevelopers channel-The long-term growth avenue Al l maj or customi zed furni ture compani es experi enced si gni ficant revenue growth sl owdown i n 2018,resul ti ng i n share pri ce correcti on of an c.-31%vs.c.-22%for CSI 300 year-to-da