1、DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be awar
2、e that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.27 August 2019Americas/United StatesEquity ResearchLeasing&Logistics Aircraft Leasing Proprietary Survey
3、COMMENTResearch AnalystsMoshe Orenbuch212 538 6795moshe.orenbuchcredit-James Ulan212 325 8235james.ulancredit-Jose Caiado212 325 6771jose.caiadocredit-New kit solid+strength in a downturn,but current-gen rates/values could weaken Our survey of fleet managers and airline execs suggests modest strengt
4、h for new narrowbody lease rates but some pressure on values/rates of current gen narrowbodies and 777/A330s.Fleet managers/executives do not expect airline failures to decline materially.Our study also suggests that orderbook lessors,such as AL and AER,should fare better-than-expected in the next d
5、ownturn,as few airlines canceled forward deliveries in the last recession.Conclusion:AL and AER should do better in a downturn and AYR will have to manage their current gen exposure.We are more optimistic on new gen lease rates,but a bit more cautious on current gen lease rates.The MAX should see so
6、me benefit and possibly the neo too,in addition to declining treasury yields which should help NIMs.Airline failures are unlikely to return to 15-17s lows.We are more positive on AL,as only 3 out of 39 surveyed airlines canceled orders from lessors in the prior recession and even then the two of the
7、se canceled 30%or less.Modest neo strength,good MAX forecasts but rate softness in current gen narrow/widebodies:Our study suggests that the neo(A320 lease rate forecast for+2.5%vs Oct 18 surveys-1%)and MAX(lease rate forecast for+6.3%vs Oct 18s-1%)should see some improvement but 777,A330 and curren
8、t gen narrowbodies are likely to see more lease rate softness.On current gen,FMs forecast 737-800 rates to decline by-12%vs Oct 18s-7%and A320 CG rates to decline by-12%vs Oct 18s-6%.Investors could begin asking how neo/MAX will impact current gen values/rates.Current gen rate pressure could be more
9、 challenging for AYR,given its older fleet and lower NIM after depreciation.FMs expect to lease less:52%of fleet managers/execs indicated that they expect the%of their fleet that is leased to decline over the next 3 yrs.The avg of all respondents was that 74.5%of their fleets aircraft are leased and
10、 this should decline to 67%in three years.31%of FMs/execs expect leasings share of their fleet not to change and 17%expect it to increase.In previous studies we asked FMs/execs to estimate the change in leased percentage,for all airlines in their region.In our Oct 18 study,13%expected leasings share
11、 to decline and in Jan 18,25%.We note that leasings share has increased from 2010-2018,to slightly over 40%.Forward orders likely to be delivered in a downturn:Our survey showed that airlines did not cancel significant forward deliveries in the 08-10 recession.Out of 39 respondents,in the last reces
12、sion,82%did not cancel any deliveries,10%canceled some OEM orders,3%canceled both OEM and lessor deliveries,and 5%canceled lessor deliveries.FMs indicated that they would cancel lessor deliveries at a slightly higher rate than OEM orders but this would be manageable if there are few cancelations.27
13、August 2019Aircraft Leasing Proprietary Survey2Bankruptcies expected to occur in similar levels:21%of survey participants expect fewer bankruptcies in the next two years and 78%expect more or the same level of bankruptcies.This compares to our Oct 18 study with 88%of participants expecting more or t
14、he same level of bankruptcies and Jan 18s 63%.In this study,21%expect bankruptcies to decline.If FMs/execs are correct,then we should see a similar amount of bankruptcies in 19/20.27 August 2019Aircraft Leasing Proprietary Survey3Leasings Market Share some decline expectedWe changed our question abo
15、ut leasings market share and now ask each fleet manager and executive what percentage of their fleet is leased as of today(July 2019)and where they expect that percentage to be in three years.Previously,we asked them to estimate leasings market share,today and three years from now,for their geograph
16、ic region.52%of FMs/execs surveyed expect the percentage of their fleet that is leased to decline over the next three years,whereas in the Fall 2018 survey only 13%of fleet managers/execs indicated they expect their closest competitors leased percentage to decline.January 2018s survey showed that 25
17、%of respondents expect leasings share to decline.The average leased percentage of fleet,from our survey,as of today,is 74.5%and FMs/execs expect that to decline to 67%,three years from now.Figure 1:Summer 2019 survey,Fall 2018 survey,January 2018 survey52%31%17%DecreaseRemain flatIncrease 13%35%53%D
18、ecreaseremain flatIncrease 25%25%50%Decreaseremain flatIncrease 123456781011121314151617181920212223242526272829 3031323334353638394041424344avgLeased%Aug 1916%54%80%58%100%60%70%100%100%66%86%100%30%100%70%100%100%70%92%94%70%100%100%100%60%94%58%100%0%38%100%56%100%100%60%38%38%46%70%60%94%100%74%
19、3 year forecast30%72%80%66%100%50%30%100%90%64%70%80%30%70%80%100%100%50%76%84%90%100%100%84%40%80%50%80%0%42%96%50%74%80%36%38%40%0%70%60%92%100%67%Source:Credit Suisse research27 August 2019Aircraft Leasing Proprietary Survey4Airline bankruptcies forecast to remain elevatedOur latest survey sugges
20、ts that FMs/execs expect bankruptcies over the next two years to be roughly the same as the past two years.We interpret this to mean that FMs/execs believe that 2019 through 2020 will look a lot like 2018 and 1H19,i.e.,an elevated level of bankruptcies from prior years.SurveyMoreSameLessAugust 20194
21、0%38%21%Sept/October 201855%33%13%Jan/Feb 201842%21%38%Sept/October 201757%43%Figure 2:Forecasts for airline bankruptcies August 2019,Summer 2019 survey,Fall 2018 survey,January 2018 survey40%38%21%MoreSameLess 55%33%13%moresamefewer 42%21%38%moresamefewer 57%43%MoreFewerSource:Credit Suisse researc
22、hSummary 2019 question:What percentage of your fleet is leased?What percentage do you expect to be leased three years from now?For example,if your fleet consists of 100 aircraft and 20 are leased,enter 20%?Fall 2018:We are trying to gauge whether leasing will gain or lose market share.Currently,leas
23、ing represents about 40%of the global commercial jet market.In your primary region(North America,South America,Europe,Africa,Middle East,Asia,Oceana,etc.)how do you expect leasings market share to change over the next three years?January 2018 question:We are trying to gauge whether leasing will gain
24、 or lose market share of the global commercial aircraft market.In your primary region(North America,South America,Europe,Africa,Middle East,Asia,Oceana,etc.).How do you expect leasings market share to change over the next three years?Sept-Oct 2017:We are trying to gauge whether leasing will gain or
25、lose market share of the global commercial aircraft market.In your primary region(North America,South America,Europe,Africa,Middle East,Asia,Oceana,etc.).How do you expect leasings market share to change over the next three years?Aircraft Leasing Proprietary Survey527 August 2019New 737 MAX 8 Lease
26、Rate EstimatesKey takeaway:Fleet managers now have higher expectations for the change in 737 MAX 8 lease rates,over the next 18 months,compared to our October 2018 survey,likely due to the MAXs scarce supply.In our new survey,the forecasted average is for a+10.7%increase over the next 18 months,thou
27、gh two data points look like they could be outliers.Without these two,the average forecast was+6.3%compared to our Oct 18 and Oct 17 surveys of-1%and+1%.Figure 3:Aug 2019 survey,estimated changes in lease rates for new 737 MAX 8s,over the next 18 monthsFigure 4:Oct 2018 survey-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%5
28、0%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Source:Credit Suisse researchSource:Credit Suisse researchFigure 5:Oct 2017 survey-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Source:Credit Suisse researchFigure 6:737 MAX 8 monthly lease r
29、ate forecast in thousands of U.S.Dollars23163132636321524813119432228391241737 MAX 8-July 2019$340k$350k$350k$190k$390k$300k$340k$300k$300k$330k$300k$290k$310k$290k$280k$250k$300k$240k$200k737 MAX 8-Jan 2021$290k$330k$350k$190k$400k$310k$360k$320k$320k$360k$330k$320k$350k$330k$320k$290k$350k$350k$30
30、0kestimated change-14.7%-5.7%0.0%0.0%2.6%3.3%5.9%6.7%6.7%9.1%10.0%10.3%12.9%13.8%14.3%16.0%16.7%45.8%50.0%average10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%Source:Credit Suisse researchAircraft Leasing Proprietary Survey627 August 2019New 737 MAX 9
31、 Lease Rate EstimatesKey takeaway:Fleet managers now have higher expectations for 737 Max 9 lease rates,compared to our October 2018 survey,likely due to the MAXs scarce supply.In our new survey,the forecast average is for+21%over the next 18 months,though two data points look like they could be out
32、liers.Without these two,the average forecast for change in lease rates over the next 18 months was+10%compared to Oct 18 and Oct 17s surveys of-3%and-2%.Figure 7:Aug 2019 survey,est.changes in lease rates for new 737 MAX 9s,over the next 18 monthsFigure 8:Oct 2018 survey-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-20%
33、-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%Source:Credit Suisse researchSource:Credit Suisse researchFigure 9:Oct 2017 survey-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%Source:Credit Suisse researchFigure 10:Aug 2019 survey-737 MAX 9 monthly lease rate forecast
34、in thousands of U.S.Dollars1311922394112737 MAX 9-July 2019$340k$310k$320k$290k$310k$200k$270k737 MAX 9-Jan 2021$350k$320k$360k$330k$360k$300k$410kestimated change3%3%13%14%16%50%52%average21%21%21%21%21%21%21%Source:Credit Suisse researchAircraft Leasing Proprietary Survey727 August 2019Used 737-80
35、0 NG Lease Rate EstimatesKey takeaway:Fleet managers continue to expect lower lease rates on the 737-800 NG.In our new survey,the forecast average is for-9%over the next 18 months,though one data point looks like an outlier.Without these two,the average forecast for change in lease rates over the ne
36、xt 18 months was-12%compared to our Oct 18,Jan/Feb 18 and Oct 17 surveys of-7%,-8%,and-10%.Figure 11:Aug 2019 survey,est change in lease rates for 12-year-old 737-800 NGs,over the next 18 monthsFigure 12:Oct 2018 survey-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-25%-20%-15%-10
37、%-5%0%5%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Source:Credit Suisse researchSource:Credit Suisse researchFigure 13:Jan/Feb survey 2018Figure 14:Oct 2017 survey-24%-20%-16%-12%-8%-4%0%-24%-20%-16%-12%-8%-4%0%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Source:Credit Suisse researchSource:Credit Suisse resea
38、rchFigure 15:Aug 2019-737-800 NG monthly lease rate forecast in thousands of U.S.Dollars37172232152423311336431039819161240341737-800 NG-July 2019$210k$300k$160k$240k$210k$210k$230k$170k$190k$210k$210k$220k$220k$230k$270k$290k$210k$220k$250k$250k737-800 NG-Jan 2021$150k$220k$130k$200k$180k$180k$200k
39、$150k$170k$190k$190k$200k$200k$210k$250k$270k$200k$210k$240k$350kestimated change-29%-27%-19%-17%-14%-14%-13%-12%-11%-10%-10%-9%-9%-9%-7%-7%-5%-5%-4%40%average-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%-9%Source:Credit Suisse researchAircraft Leasing Proprietary Survey827 August 2019Us
40、ed 737-900 NG Lease Rate EstimatesKey takeaway:Fleet managers continue to expect lower lease rates on the 737-900 NG.In our new survey,the forecast average is for-18%over the next 18 months.This compares to our October 2018 survey when fleet managers forecast a-8%change over 18 months compared to ou
41、r Oct 18,Jan/Feb 18,and Oct 17 surveys of-8%,-10%,and-13%.Figure 16:Aug 2019 survey,est change in lease rates for 12 year old 737-900 NGs,over the next 18 monthsFigure 17:Oct 2018 survey-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Sour
42、ce:Credit Suisse researchSource:Credit Suisse researchFigure 18:Jan/Feb 2018 surveyFigure 19:Oct 2017 survey-24%-20%-16%-12%-8%-4%0%-24%-20%-16%-12%-8%-4%0%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%Source:Credit Suisse researchSource:Credit Suisse researchFigure 20:Aug 2019-737-900 NG monthl
43、y lease rate forecasts in thousands of U.S.Dollars37172215313912737-900 NG-July 2019$200k$310k$170k$220k$180k$220k$220k737-900 NG-Jan 2021$130k$210k$140k$190k$160k$200k$210kestimated change-35%-32%-18%-14%-11%-9%-5%average-18%-18%-18%-18%-18%-18%-18%Source:Credit Suisse researchAircraft Leasing Prop
44、rietary Survey927 August 2019Used 737-800 NG Values EstimatesKey takeaway:Fleet managers continue to expect values for used 737-800 NG to decline.In our new survey,the forecast average is for-11%over the next 18 months compared to our Oct 18 and Jan/Feb 18 surveys of-6%and-8%.We note that lessors ga
45、ins from selling aircraft have been strong over the last year though.Figure 21:Aug 2019 survey,estimated change in values of 12 year 737 800 NGs,over the next 18 monthsFigure 22:Oct 2018 survey-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%Sourc
46、e:Credit Suisse researchSource:Credit Suisse researchFigure 23:Jan/Feb 2018 survey-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%Source:Credit Suisse researchFigure 24:August 2019-737-800 NG aircraft value forecasts in millions of U.S.Dollars12321517362319402226438374133913737 800 NG-Current value$34$28$
47、25$18$18$20$24$25$17$17$21$24$24$16$15$20$15737 800 NG-Estimated value$25$22$20$15$15$17$21$22$15$15$19$22$22$15$15$20$16-26%-21%-20%-17%-17%-15%-13%-12%-12%-12%-10%-8%-8%-6%0%0%7%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%Source:Credit Suisse researchAircraft Leasing Propri
48、etary Survey1027 August 2019Used 737-900 NG ValuesKey takeaway:Fleet managers expect values for used 737-900 NG to decline by 15%over the next 18 months compared to our October 2018 survey-9.5%and Jan/Feb 2018s-10%.Figure 25:Aug 2019 survey,est.changes in values of 12 year 737 900 NGs,over the next
49、18 monthsFigure 26:Oct 2018 survey-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%Source:Credit Suisse researchSource:Credit Suisse researchFigure 27:Jan/Feb 2018-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Source:Credit Suisse researchFigure 28
50、:Aug 2019-737-900 NG aircraft value forecasts in millions of U.S.Dollars12371715224139737 900 NG-Current value$36$22$19$23$20$17$20737 900 NG-Estimated value$26$17$15$19$18$16$20-28%-23%-21%-17%-10%-6%0%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%Source:Credit Suisse researchAircraft Leasing Proprietary Survey1127