1、White PaperThinking Strategically:Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a Sustainable FutureFebruary 2019World Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744Email:contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.org 2018 World Economic Forum.All rights
2、 reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.This white paper has been published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or in
3、teraction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a re-sult of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum,but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other
4、 stakeholders.3Thinking Strategically:Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a Sustainable FutureForeword Executive summary The need for change:Understanding the rapidly evolving global energy landscapeElectrification Renewable energy technologyElectric vehiclesClimate policies Fossil fuels and climat
5、e change Global demand From scarcity to abundance Energy fragmentation and decentralization Change:The only inevitability Stranded nations:The risks for fossil-fuel-rich countries Declining asset values Race to monetize Multiple points of exposure Diversification Recent developments Recognizing risk
6、s From stabilization to diversification:Using resource revenues to invest in a sustainable future Precautionary buffersSmooth consumption Development and diversificationThe next step in public investment Time to think strategically Seizing the opportunity Long-term investment horizon 567781010111212
7、1213141415151618192020222426272727ContentsPolicy integration Capital depth and facilitating FDI Equity capital as strategic control Recognizing risksConclusion ContributorsEndnotes 282929303132334Thinking Strategically:Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a Sustainable Future5Thinking Strategically:
8、Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a Sustainable FutureForewordThe challenges the world faces from climate change,and the related shifts in the global energy landscape stemming from the rise of renewables and changing patterns of energy consumption,are well known.Investors as well as citizens arou
9、nd the world are becoming acutely aware of their financial and human costs.Fossil-fuel-rich,resource-dependent nations bear multiple points of exposure to this global economic transition,as their institutions,infrastructure and wealth are based on an economic model that will gradually diminish.At th
10、e same time,optimism and crucially investment in sustainable development,renewable energy and economic diversification continue to grow.With the harm of climate change and the investment in solutions to mitigate it both advancing,we must ensure that the latter prevails and that economies around the
11、world are prepared for this shift.This White Paper,produced as part of the World Economic Forum System Initiative on Shaping the Future of Long-Term Investing,Infrastructure and Development,envisions how policy-makers,particularly those from fossil-fuel-rich economies,can apply private-sector invest
12、ment techniques to transform their economies in preparation for a sustainable future.It draws on the multi-decade history of the sovereign fund model,which aligns private-sector investment with economic policy objectives,and combines it with the ambitions of sustainable investment approaches,such as
13、 blended finance and impact investing.This paper is the first step in what is expected to be a multi-stage process to explore new investment models and to provide leaders with the tools and network to scale them to match the challenges societies must confront.Fortunately,the wealth produced by fossi
14、l fuel production is vast and can serve as the foundation for new,diversified economies.The multistakeholder nature of the Forums platform and network is uniquely suited to address this topic in a holistic way.With this in mind,we would like to thank the investors,policy-makers,academics and other e
15、xperts who have contributed to this work.Maha Eltobgy,Head,Shaping the Future of Long-Term Investing,Infrastructure and Development,Member of the Executive Committee6Thinking Strategically:Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a Sustainable FutureExecutive summaryThe age of oil and gas dominance is s
16、lowly coming to an end.It will probably not be the dramatic collapse fearfully predicted just 40 years ago,but it will surely affect those who are not prepared.As the rise of renewables and changing patterns of energy use shift the global energy landscape at a breakneck pace,the risk for economies d
17、ependent on fossil fuel revenues continues to climb.Without an energy transition roadmap,these nations could be left stranded with natural resources,infrastructure,institutions and human capital altogether unfit for a new world in which renewable energy,knowledge workers,smart grids and autonomous,e
18、lectric vehicles drive global growth.This is an age of transformational change.The Fourth Industrial Revolution promises to fuse together the physical,digital and biological worlds,presenting opportunities for extraordinary growth and improved living standards,accompanied by deep disruptions.1 This
19、technological revolution is also sparking an energy revolution in renewables,energy efficiency,smart cities and storage.These innovations are paving the way for a more sustainable and inclusive future for those with the capacity to take advantage of change,while creating ever more uncertainty for th
20、ose unwilling or unable to adapt.The capacity for fossil-fuel-rich,resource-dependent economies to adapt to future changes is often limited by a narrow growth model and inflexible institutions.For these countries,the time to act is now.Though the effects of an“energy revolution”may not be felt for d
21、ecades,the necessary policy changes and investment decisions will need to be made well in advance of the moment they are felt by citizens,investors and policy-makers.Already,the twin strains of demographic and climate change are putting increasing political pressure on many fossil-fuel-rich economie
22、s to invest in new sources of economic opportunity and growth,while neither of these megatrends is likely to slow down or wait for societies to catch up.2 Transformational changes do not come only from the outside,however.Governments and societies can choose their fate through the institutional stru
23、ctures with which they organize themselves.They must mobilize all the resources at their disposal,including coordination between economic policy,investment decisions and business actions.The World Economic Forum has worked to align the roles and responsibilities of the public and private spheres sin
24、ce its inception in 1971,and its flagship publications,such as The Global Competitiveness Report,provide a compass for policy-makers and stakeholders to shape economic strategies in this fashion.3 A clear candidate for public-private synthesis when facing transformational changes is the national and
25、 global investment landscape,and many fossil-fuel-exporting countries are already adept at applying private-sector investment techniques in coordination with economic policy goals.Funded through windfall commodity revenues,these countries have accumulated trillions of dollars in sovereign wealth fun
26、ds,which invest to achieve policy objectives including economic stabilization and saving for future generations.In the face of new challenges,can this unique group of investors evolve to respond directly to the economic,climate and social implications of the impending global energy transition?There
27、is already a long history of government,investor and civil society attempts to use private-sector investment techniques to achieve both financial and non-financial outcomes.Terms such as“public private cooperation”,4“blended finance”5 and“impact investing”6 have all become commonly cited solutions t
28、o global challenges.Yet these options may not be feasible or sufficiently impactful responses to the dramatic changes the global energy revolution portends.They have often lacked the scale,human capital,time horizon and local market integration necessary to mitigate the impact of dramatic global cha
29、llenges.Whats more,they largely envisage government as a secondary player unable to take advantage of the sizeable resource revenues at its disposal.An alternative approach,therefore,is to combine the ambitions of impact-style investing with the scale,economic policy integration and private-sector t
30、echniques of the sovereign fund sector.Strategic investment funds(SIFs),politically independent yet state-owned funds capitalized with surplus commodity revenues and mandated through government policy to confront these challenges head-on,are one such promising synthesis for adapting to transformatio
31、nal change.With the potential to combine the strategic,long-term vision of their host countries and the best practices and market discipline of institutional investors,a sector of SIFs could help catalyse the necessary investment for a diverse,sustainable and inclusive economic future in these count
32、ries.In doing so,such funds would convert current,finite resource wealth into a new era of prosperity.The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones,and the oil age will end but not for a lack of oil.Ahmed Zaki Yamani,Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia(1962-1986),8 Septembe
33、r 20007Thinking Strategically:Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a Sustainable FutureThe need for change:Understanding the rapidly evolving global energy landscapeThe“energy revolution”will reshape the modern world in ways comparable only to the switch from coal to oil a century ago.7 New technolo
34、gies,changing patterns of demand,growing threats to the environment and dramatic shifts in policy will affect the political,economic and environmental trajectory of almost every nation.In particular,it will transform those for whom fossil fuels have been the primary source of influence and wealth.Mo
35、re than ever,a countrys wealth will derive from the productivity of its citizenry,and the ability of its government to marshal all the tools at its disposal to prepare those citizens for an uncertain future.Four critical developments in the global energy landscape will force hydrocarbon-based sovere
36、ign wealth funds(SWFs)to reconsider their investment mandates,asset allocations and outflow time frames:1.Electrification and decarbonization will accelerate as technology improves and risks converge.2.Growth in energy demand will slow overall,even as some regions continue to develop,electrify and i
37、ndustrialize.3.Oil producers are likely to face problems of overabundance and newfound competition.4.Energy systems will decentralize in response to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.These changes are no longer speculative,and indeed many of the best predictions are still likely to undershoot the mar
38、k.For a SWF charged with protecting future prosperity,the risks therefore can no longer be whether these changes will disrupt the existing model,but how best to adapt in time.Electrification 2015-2016 may well be remembered as a historic turning point in global energy.In 2015,195 countries signed th
39、e Paris Agreement,agreeing to limit the global temperature increase to 2C.In 2016,the global consumption of electricity reached parity with oil products for the first time.8 The energy revolution will reshape the modern world in ways comparable only to the switch from coal to oil a century ago.The w
40、orlds energy mix is the most diverse it has ever been and this energy-mix-switch will only accelerate from here.Today,the worlds energy mix is the most diverse it has ever been and this“energy-mix-switch”will only accelerate from here.According to the International Energy Agency(IEA),40%of the incre
41、ase in energy consumption between now and 2040 will be in electricity,of which renewables are the fasting growing source.9 The consumption of renewable energy is predicted to increase by an average of 2.3%a year between 2015 and 2040,ushering in the largest change in primary energy consumption since
42、 the expansion of nuclear power from 1966-1991.10 This has prompted some authors to speculate that the changes in global energy use will be as dramatic as the shift from coal to oil roughly a century ago.Though oil today is far from being as dominant as coal was at its height(Figure 1),the primary e
43、xport and source of growth for certain countries today remains oil.In much the same way that coal continues to be a significant source of revenue for some countries but no longer sustains entire economies,this rapid shift towards renewables threatens to end the era of oil-led growth.8Thinking Strate
44、gically:Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a Sustainable FutureSources:Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre,UN Environment Programme and Bloomberg New Energy Finance,Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018.Figure 2:Investment in renewable energy by region,2004-20170501001502002503003502004200520
45、0620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017$BillionsAsia(excl.China&india)IndiaChinaMiddle East&AfricaEuropeAmericas(excl US and Brazil)BrazilUnited StatesRenewable energy technologyAs more money,time and human capital are invested in renewable energy,the efficiency of these technologies will ris
46、e even as costs continue to plummet.As these technologies approach cost parity with their hydrocarbon competition,the rate at which countries abandon fossil fuels will accelerate dramatically.Despite currently Figure 1:Primary energy consumptionBillion toePrimary energy consumption by fuel0%20%40%60
47、%80%100%190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010202020302040OilGasCoalNon-FossilShare of primary energy use Source:BP Energy Outlook,2018 edition,p.68.accounting for only 3.6%of global energy consumption,the IEA expects 72%of future investment in power generation globally between now and 204
48、0 to be in wind and solar technologies,driven mostly by China.11 Figure 2 shows the rapid increase in investment in renewables over the last decade.This clear signal from the market shows where the future of energy production and consumption lies.Primary energy consumption by fuelShare of primary en
49、ergy use9Thinking Strategically:Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a Sustainable FutureThis shift is likely to occur sooner than one might think as costs fall faster than ever thought possible.Since 2010,the costs of new solar photovoltaic systems(solar PV)have fallen by an astonishing 70%,with ut
50、ility-scale PV falling at a 20%compounded rate.12 Solar is now officially as cheap as coal in Australia,Germany,Italy,Spain and the United States,and by 2021 is expected to be cheaper in Brazil,China,India,Mexico and the United Kingdom.13 Estimates by the International Renewable Energy Agency sugges