1、See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 40Equity Research Report Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 证券研究报告 银行行业 银行行业 Banking Sector Sector Report:Banking Sector Richard Cao 曹柱 行业报告：银行行业(86755)2397 6870 4 January 2019 Earnings Growth Expected to Remain Stable in 2019,Maintain
2、 Outperform 2019年盈利增速预计维持平稳，维持“跑赢大市”评级We expect YoY growth of the Chinese banking sectors balance of total loansand total assets to be 13.3%and 9.9%in 2019,respectively.As we projectthat Chinas liquidity conditions will be neutral and slightly loose,we expectNIM of the banking sector to remain relat
3、ively stable,reaching around 2.16%in 2019.We project the banking sectors net fee income to grow at amoderate pace in 2019.As we project asset quality to remain stable,pressure of provisioning for banks is expected not to rise.All thingsconsidered,we expect that YoY growth of the banking sectors net
4、profitin 2018 and 2019 will be 6.0%and 6.2%,respectively.As at 31 December 2018,the 2019 weighted average PER and PBR ofmainland banks under our coverage stood at 5.2x and 0.7x,respectively.Thecurrent valuations are still low in our view.In 2019,we expect the followingfactors to support bank valuati
5、ons:1)we expect Chinas economy to growsteadily and economic structure to be optimized further;2)we think Chinaseconomic risks will decrease further given the governments deleveragingand the stringent regulation;3)the negative impact of stringent financialregulation on bank valuations is expected to
6、mitigate;4)we expect the cut inRRRs by the PBOC to strengthen profitability of banks;5)we project theChinese banking sectors net profit growth to remain stable;and 6)we expectthe Chinese banking sectors asset quality to remain stable.Therefore,wemaintain Outperform rating for the banking sector in 2
7、019.我们预计中国银行业总贷款和总资产余额的同比增速 2019 年分别为 13.3%和 9.9%。由于我们预测中国流动性环境将中性偏松，我们预计 2019 年银行的净息差将维持稳定，达2.16%左右。我们预计银行业净手续费收入在 2019 年温和增长。在预期资产质量维持稳定的背景下，银行拨备计提压力预计不会提升。考虑到以上所有因素，我们预计银行业我们预计银行业2018年和年和 2019 年净利润同比增速分别为年净利润同比增速分别为 6.0%和和 6.2%。截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日，我们覆盖的中资银行 2019 年的加权平均市盈率与市净率分别为 5.2 倍与 0.7 倍。我们认为
8、当前估值仍然偏低。2019 年，我们预计以下因素将为银行估值提供支撑：1）我们预计中国经济平稳增长，经济结构进一步优化；2）在政府降杠杆及严监管的背景下，我们认为中国经济风险进一步下降；3）严金融监管对银行估值的负面影响预计减弱；4）我们预计中国人民银行的降准将增强银行的盈利能力；5）我们预计中国银行业净利润增速将维持平稳；6）我们预计中国银行业资产质量将保持稳定。因此，我们维持中国银行业我们维持中国银行业 2019 年“跑赢大市”投资评级。年“跑赢大市”投资评级。Rating:Outperform Maintained 评级：跑赢大市跑赢大市(维持)Sector Performance 行业
9、表现 Source:Bloomberg.Banking Sector Net Profit and YoY Growth 银行业净利润及其同比增速 Source:China Banking Regulatory Commission,Guotai Junan International.Table_CompanyFinance Company Name Code Price Rating 18PER 19PER 20PER 18ROE 18P/B 18Yield 公司名称 编号 股价(HK$)投资评级 市盈率(x)市盈率(x)市盈率(x)净资产收益(%)市净率(x)股息率(%)ICBC 013
10、98 HK 5.520 Accumulate 5.8 5.5 5.2 13.8 0.8 5.2 China Construction Bank 00939 HK 6.410 Accumulate 5.5 5.2 4.8 14.5 0.8 5.5 China Agricultural Bank 01288 HK 3.430 Accumulate 5.0 4.8 4.4 13.3 0.6 5.9 Bank of China 03988 HK 3.370 Accumulate 5.0 4.7 4.3 11.2 0.6 6.0 Bank of Communications 03328 HK 6.050
11、 Accumulate 5.5 5.2 4.9 11.1 0.6 5.7 China Merchants Bank 03968 HK 28.250 Buy 7.9 6.9 5.9 16.5 1.2 3.8 China CITIC BANK 00998 HK 4.650 Accumulate 4.6 4.3 4.0 11.5 0.5 6.8 China Minsheng Bank 01988 HK 5.410 Accumulate 3.6 3.7 3.5 13.2 0.5 4.3 Huishang Bank 03698 HK 3.380 Accumulate 4.0 3.5 3.0 15.5 0
12、.6 4.5 Weighted Average.市值加权平均 5.6 5.2 4.8 13.5 0.7 5.4 Source:the Companies,Guotai Junan International,Bloomberg.-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%Index of mainland Chinese banks in Hong Kong HIS index0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 14
13、0.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12Mar-13Jun-13Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14Jun-14Sep-14Dec-14Mar-15Jun-15Sep-15Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18RMB 10 bnNet profit YoY growth Sector Report P See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 40 Table_PageHeader
14、Banking Sector 4 January 2019 Banking Sector 银行行业 Mainland Chinese banks(mainland banks)listed in Hong Kong basically matched the Hong Kong Hang Seng index in 2018.As at 31 December 2018,the YTD weighted return of mainland banks listed in Hong Kong basically outperformed the Hang Seng index.In terms
15、 of the YTD weighted return trend of mainland banks listed in Hong Kong,the highest YTD weighted return through the year was 22.8%on 31 January 2018.As at 31 December 2018,the YTD weighted return of mainland banks listed in Hong Kong was-6.1%.Exhibit 1:The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and H-Share Index
16、 trend of mainland banks Source:Guotai Junan International.Note:index of mainland banks listed in Hong Kong are composited by the weighted average market capitalization of the mainland banks listed in Hong Kong,as at 31 December 2018.Chinas economy grew steadily in 2018.In 2018 on the whole,the Chin
17、ese economy maintained steady growth,economic structure adjustment continued to progress,supply and demand balanced generally.Consumption played a stronger role in driving economic growth and the growth of manufacturing and private investment picked up.In 1-3Q18,Chinese GDP recorded YoY growth of 6.
18、7%,down 0.2 pts YoY.In 1-11M18,industrial production rose by 5.4%YoY.Fixed asset investment grew by 5.9%YoY in 1-11M18.Nominal YoY growth of retail sales of consumer goods in November was 8.1%.In 1-11M18,imports and exports both grew at a stable pace,of which exports and imports increased by 8.2%YoY
19、 and 14.6%YoY,respectively.Exhibit 2:YoY growth of Chinese industrial production Exhibit 3:YoY growth of Chinese fixed asset investment(Accumulated)Source:the National Bureau of Statistics of China.Source:the National Bureau of Statistics of China.-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%I
20、ndex of mainland Chinese banks in Hong Kong HIS index-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.0Mar-14Jun-14Sep-14Dec-14Mar-15Jun-15Sep-15Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18%0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Aug-14Nov-14Feb-15May-15Aug-15Nov-15Feb-16Ma
21、y-16Aug-16Nov-16Feb-17May-17Aug-17Nov-17Feb-18May-18Aug-18Nov-18%Sector Report P See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 40 Table_PageHeader Banking Sector 4 January 2019 Banking Sector 银行行业 Exhibit 4:YoY growth of Chinese retail sales of consumer goods Exhibit 5:YoY growth of Chinese exports and
22、 YoY growth of Chinese imports Source:the National Bureau of Statistics of China.Source:the National Bureau of Statistics of China.Exhibit 6:YoY growth of Chinese GDP Source:the National Bureau of Statistics of China.YoY growth of Chinese GDP is expected to be 6.2%in 2019.In 2019,despite Chinas econ
23、omy facing declining pressure disturbed by negative factors such as the China-US trade war,the U.S.Federal Reserves(the Fed”)interest rate hikes,insufficient vitality of private investment,the slowdown in driving force of economic growth,etc.,the long-term positive prospects of Chinas economy are ex
24、pected to remain.In 2019,we expect the following factors to still boost the Chinese economy to grow steadily:1)Internationally,the global economy is projected to continue to recover and maintain relatively fast growth;2)Chinas economy still has tremendous development potential,and there is huge deve
25、lopment space within urbanization,the service sector,high-end manufacturing and consumption upgrade;3)thanks to supply-side structural reform and market mechanisms,domestic demand driving the economy up plays a more important role.The development of emerging industries is booming,the transformation
26、and upgrading of traditional industries are in good shape,and Chinas economic structure continues to be optimized;and 4)the macro-leverage ratio tends to be stable;the prevention and control of financial risk has shown effectiveness,and financial support for the real economy is relatively consolidat
27、ed.Therefore,we still project Chinas economy to continue to grow at a stable pace in 2019,and we expect YoY growth of Chinese GDP for 2019 to slow down to 6.2%.Monetary and financial environment was generally prudent and neutral in 2018.In 2018,the PBOCs monetary policies have been prudent and neutr
28、al.The PBOC adjusted liquidity conditions primarily through open market operations,new monetary instruments and the cut in RRRs.Monetary and financial environment was neutral on the whole.Firstly,in 2018 the PBOC withdrew a net amount of RMB 640.0 bn.Secondly,in 2018 the PBOC extended SLF of RMB 438
29、.7 bn.Thirdly,in 2018 the PBOC carried out MLF of RMB 5.0 tn.As at the end of 2018,the balance of MLF reached RMB 4.9 tn,up 9.1%YoY.Fourthly,in 2018 the PBOC carried out PSL of RMB 692.0 bn.As at the end of December 2018,the balance of PSL achieved RMB 3.4 tn,up 25.7%YTD.In 2018 new RMB loans and ne
30、w TSF achieved RMB 15.1 tn and RMB 14.7 tn,up 16.5%YoY and 11.1%YoY,respectively.Chinas M1 YoY growth in November 2018 was 1.5%,down 1.2 pts MoM and down 11.2 pts YoY.YoY growth of M2 recorded 8.0%,unchanged MoM and down 1.1 pts YoY.Given the prudent and neutral monetary and financial environment,th
31、e interest rate in the market increased overall.In 2018,the average Shibor(overnight)was 2.48%,down 15 bps YoY.In September 2018,RMB loans weighted average interest rate of financial institutions was 5.94%,up 18 bps YoY.9.09.510.010.511.011.512.012.5Aug-14Nov-14Feb-15May-15Aug-15Nov-15Feb-16May-16Au
32、g-16Nov-16Feb-17May-17Aug-17Nov-17Feb-18May-18Aug-18Nov-18%-30.0-20.0-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 Mar-14Jul-14Nov-14Mar-15Jul-15Nov-15Mar-16Jul-16Nov-16Mar-17Jul-17Nov-17Mar-18Jul-18Nov-18%ExportsImports5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12Mar-13Ju
33、n-13Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14Jun-14Sep-14Dec-14Mar-15Jun-15Sep-15Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18%Sector Report P See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 40 Table_PageHeader Banking Sector 4 January 2019 Banking Sector 银行行业 Exhibit 7:China YoY growth of M1 and M2
34、and comparison Exhibit 8:China new RMB loans of financial institutions Source:the Peoples Bank of China,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Peoples Bank of China.Exhibit 9:YoY growth of new RMB loans and new total social financing in China Exhibit 10:YoY growth of the balance of RMB loans and tota
35、l social financing in China Source:the Peoples Bank of China Source:the Peoples Bank of China.Exhibit 11:Major Shibor measures in China Exhibit 12:RMB loans weighted average interest rate of financial institutions in China Source:China Securities Depository and Clearing,Guotai Junan International.So
36、urce:the Peoples Bank of China,Guotai Junan International.-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18%M1(YoY)M2(YoY)M2-M1(YoY)05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17Ma
37、y-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18RMB 00 mn-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%New TSF(YoY growht)New RMB loans(YoY growth)9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%15.0%16.0%Balance of TSF(YoY growht)Balance of RMB loans(YoY growth)0.001.002.003.004.005.006.00%Shibor(overnight)
38、Shibor(one-week)Shibor(one-month)5.005.506.006.507.007.50Sep-14Dec-14Mar-15Jun-15Sep-15Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18%Sector Report P See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 40 Table_PageHeader Banking Sector 4 January 2019 Banking Sector 银行行业 We expect t
39、hat the PBOC will maintain prudent and neutral monetary policies and Chinas liquidity conditions will be neutral and slightly loose in 2019.In the China Monetary Policy Report,The Third Quarter 2018,the PBOC expressed its focus on the three tasks of serving the real economy,preventing and controllin
40、g financial risks and deepening financial reforms,while making prudent neutral monetary policies to maintain liquidity at a reasonably adequate level.In the Central Working Conference for 2019,the government will put forward prudent monetary policies which should not be too loose or too tight to sta
41、y adequate,maintaining reasonably abundant liquidity and resolving problems of financing difficulties and high financing prices of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises.In order to stabilize economic growth,support the financing of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises,co
42、ntrol economic exposure,keep the RMB foreign exchange rate stable and control capital outflow given the Feds interest rate hike and balance sheet shrinkage,we expect that the PBOC will maintain prudent and neutral monetary policies and that Chinas liquidity conditions will be neutral and slightly lo
43、ose in 2019.The establishment of wealth management subsidiaries is projected to benefit the development of the banks in the long run.On 2 December 2018,the Administrative Measures for Wealth Management Subsidiaries of Commercial Banks(Administrative Measures)was issued by the CBIRC.The main points o
44、f the Administrative Measures include:1)allowing subsidiaries to invest in stocks directly;2)for non-standard debt investment,only requests that do not to exceed net asset of 35%at any time are allowed;3)allowing issuance of graded products;4)no sales starting point for wealth management products is
45、sued by subsidiaries;5)wealth management products of subsidiaries can be sold on commission by banking financial institutions as well as by other institutions authorized by the CBIRC to sell on commission;6)individual investors are not required to sign face to face when buying wealth management prod
46、ucts of subsidiaries for the first time;and 7)partner institutions of private equity products and investment advisers of publicly offered products may be licensed financial corporations as well as qualified private equity fund managers.As of mid-December 2018,the big five banks,major joint-stock ban
47、ks and major city commercial banks had announced their plans to establish wealth management subsidiaries.According to regulatory requirements,the overall approval process of the banks wealth management subsidiaries may take about 1 year.Therefore,the banks wealth management subsidiaries are expected
48、 to open as early as the second half of 2019.The establishment of wealth management subsidiaries is projected to strengthen the risk isolation of bank wealth management business and promote the net worth transformation of wealth management business,which will benefit the development of the banks in
49、the long run and is expected to also ease the shrinking trend of the wealth management sector.However,as the Administrative Measures requires that the registered capital of subsidiaries should not be less than RMB 1 bn and meanwhile it has higher requirements on investment and research capabilities,
50、human resources and information disclosure for subsidiaries,it is difficult to set up wealth management subsidiaries for small banks.Therefore,share of the wealth management sector is projected to possibly be concentrated to medium and large banks.We expect the negative impacts from the Guidance on