1、 IEC TR 63039 Edition 1.0 2016-07 TECHNICA L R EPOR T Probabilistic risk analy sis of technological systems Estimation of final event rate at a given initial state IEC T R 63039:2016-07(en)c olourinsideCopyright International Electrotechnical Commission THIS PUBLICATION IS COPYRIGHT PROTECTED Copyri
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11、ilistic risk analy sis of technological sy stems Estimation of final event rate at a given initial state INTER NA TIONAL ELECTROTECHNICAL COMMISSION ICS 03.120.01;03.120.30 ISBN 978-2-8322-3511-9 Registered t rademark of t he Int ernational Electrot echnical Commission W arning!Make sure that you ob
12、tained this publication from an authorized distributor.c olourinsideCopyright International Electrotechnical Commission 2 IEC TR 63039:2016 IEC 2016 CONTENTS FOREWORD.5 INTRODUCTION.7 1 Scope.9 2 Normative ref erences.10 3 Terms,def initions and abbreviated terms.10 3.1 Terms and def initions.10 3.2
13、 Abbreviated terms.17 4 Dif f erence between f requency and rate of f inal event.17 5 Final event f requency and f inal event rate at a given initial state.19 5.1 General.19 5.2 Classif ication of f inal events.19 5.3 Final event f requency in a steady state.20 5.4 Final event rate at a given initia
14、l state and at a recognised state.22 5.5 Relationship between f inal event rate and f requency at a given initial state.22 6 Procedure f or probabilistic risk analysis and f low to reach risk prof ile.23 7 Techniques f or quantitative analysis of the occurrence of a f inal event.24 7.1 Graphical sym
15、bols f or three types of f inal events.24 7.1.1 General.24 7.1.2 Repeatable f inal event.24 7.1.3 Unrepeatable f inal event resulting in a renewable f inal state.30 7.1.4 Unrepeatable f inal event resulting in an unrenewable f inal state.30 7.2 Analytical example of an unrepeatable f inal event.31 7
16、.2.1 General.31 7.2.2 Average f inal event f requency.32 7.2.3 Final event rate at a given initial state.34 8 Final event rate at a recognised state and recognised group state.40 8.1 General.40 8.2 Example of recognised(group)states.40 9 Analysis of multiple protection layers.43 9.1 General.43 9.2 Frequency and rate f or repeatable events.45 9.2.1 General.45 9.2.2 Independent of event sequence.45 9.2.3 Depending on event sequence.47 9.3 Final protection layer arranged in a 1-out-of-1 architectur
