1、The American Chamber of Commerce in South China2019 Special Report on the State of Business in South China华南美国商会2019 年华南地区经济情况特别报告Content目录56 Special Supporter 特别支持机构58 economic Conditions in South China 华南地区经济概况 64 Guangdong Province 广东省 82 Fujian Province 福建省 92 Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region 广西
2、壮族自治区 104 Hainan Province 海南省 114 Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 香港特别行政区 120 Macao Special Administrative Region 澳门特别行政区 01 Preface02 Study reSultS03economic overview序言调查结果经济概况16 Demographics 受访企业组成 23 Revenue and Profitability 收入与利润 29 Reinvestment trends 再投资趋势 42 Business environment 营商环境
3、 49 US-China Bilateral Relations 美中双边关系 08 Presidents Message 会长致辞12 Key takeaways 关键要点 13 Special Sponsor 特别赞助商 2019 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China版权所有 华南美国商会 2019 年“South China Economic Overview”courtesy of EY.“华南地区经济概况”由安永授权刊登。Reproduction for commercial use is strictly prohibite
4、d.This document is available free of charge in electronic form at:http:/www.amcham-southchina.org严禁复制以作商业用途。华南美国商会官方网站提供该出版物电子版免费下载。Last updated:Feb 20,2019最后更新2019年2月20日The American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaSuite 1801,Guangzhou International Sourcing Center8 East Pazhou Avenue,Haizhu Distr
5、ictGuangzhou,Guangdong,PRC,510335华南美国商会中国广东省广州市海珠区琶洲大道东路8号广州国际采购中心1801室,510335Tel.(86 20)8335 1476 Fax.(86 20)8332 1642amchamamcham-southchina.orgwww.amcham-southchina.org01 Preface序言98 Dear Members,Chinas extraordinary progress has provided historic opportunities for world peace and prosperity.Dail
6、y trade between the US and China is now valued at more than US$1.5 billion per day.The two countries are more connected than ever before in their mutual history.If the 40th anniversary of Sino-US diplomatic relationship proves nothing else,it proves that cooperation is in the best interest for both
7、countries while confrontation does neither country any good.To succeed,both countries must work together.In spite of all of the obstacles thrown at it last year,the state of business in South China for American investment remains robust.Almost all of the businesses who participated in our 2019 Speci
8、al Report on the State of Business in South China remain profitable in China and optimistic towards the future of the economy.Chinas January export and import data,released shortly before this publication went to print,show Chinas January dollar-denominated exports rose 9.1 percent from a year ago,h
9、ealthily beating a forecast of a 3.2 percent contraction.Chinas imports fell 1.5 percent over the same period proving far better than the ten-percent predicted decline.Chinas overall trade surplus of US$39.16 billion in January also outperformed the estimates.The January figures can easily confirm t
10、he findings of this Special Report as many companies have taken advantage of the 90-day truce between the US and China,completing orders for rush delivery from the US and China.Those orders or deals account for 20 to 30 percent of the companies annual numbers.The good news is that President Trump an
11、nounced in mid-February during trade negotiations between the two countries that he may extend a March 1 deadline for a deal and keep tariffs on Chinese goods from rising.Among many findings,the Special Report suggests most business executives have had sufficient time to assess the present and possi
12、ble future impact of the trade 中国改革开放40多年来，经济社会发展取得的非凡成就，为世界和平与繁荣提供了历史性机遇。仅美中两国的日贸易额便超过了15亿美元，两国关系的紧密程度达到历史最高点。要说美中建交40周年证明了什么，那便是“合则两利，斗则俱伤”。要实现共赢，两国必须协同发展。尽管去年障碍重重，但美资企业在华南地区的投资依然强劲。华南美国商会的2019华南地区经济情况特别报告（下简称特别报告）显示，几乎所有外资企业在华均保持盈利状态，并对未来经济发展持乐观态度。2019年1月中国进出口数据显示，以美元计，中国出口同比增长9.1%，比3.2%的预期降幅要好；进
13、口同比下降1.5%，远比10%的预期降幅要好。当月贸易顺差为391.6亿美元，也超出了市场预期。以上数据印证了特别报告的结论：众多企业利用美中为期90天的“休战期”，交付了两国的紧急订单。此类订单量或交易额在上述企业年度数据中的占比达20%至30%。好消息是，特朗普总统在2月中旬两国贸易谈判期间宣布，他愿意考虑将3月1号对中国加征关税的期限延后，并保持对华进口税率，暂不上调。特别报告的许多调查结果也显示，大多数企业高管有足够的时间来评估贸易争端对企业业务的短期冲击及未来潜在的影响，同时相应地扩大2019年在美中两国的再投资计划。虽然中国经济确实略有放缓，但仍以超过6%的速度增长。在2018年推
14、迟再投资的企业增加了2019年在华再投资的预算，以解决去年因此得不到满足而增加的客户需求。然而，尽管面向中国市场的生产再投资大幅增加，但某些企业也将出口制造的相关部分再投资转移至其他亚洲国家。或许这些企业是在两方下注。同时，美中两国的新闻媒体充斥着双方的高谈阔论和报复性关税的报道。大多数受访企业认为，美中两国的争端可能会在2019年后的很长一段时期内产生影响。且到目前为止，美中两国的关税对企业的负面影响已经超过了正面影响。然而，相比过去两年，受访企业2018年全球年收入和中国市场年收入的波动幅度很小，越来越多的企业亲爱的会员：Presidents Message会长致辞dispute on t
15、heir businesses,and have increased their 2019 plans for reinvestments in the US and China accordingly.While it is true that Chinas economy has slowed down slightly,it is still growing at a rate of over six percent.Companies which postponed their reinvestments in 2018 have increased their budgets for
16、 reinvestments in China in 2019 in order to keep up with customer demanda need intensified by the postponement of their reinvestments in 2018.However,while the reinvestments in China related to the production for the Chinese market have increased substantially,a few companies have also shifted some
17、export-manufacturing-related reinvestments to other Asian countries.Perhaps these companies are hedging their bets.The news media has been full of lofty rhetoric and reports of retaliatory tariffs from both sides.Most of the respondents believe that the dispute between the US and China may have repe
18、rcussions long after 2019,and that so far,the negative impact of the combined tariffs on companies has exceeded the positive.However,compared with the past two years,companies only report very slight fluctuations in the global annual revenue and annual revenue in China in 2018.An increasing number o
19、f our respondents have gained more revenue from China,and more companies report that the percentage of their global annual revenue from China has increased compared with 2017.Most of the companies report that their overall return on investment in China is positive and will be more willing to expand
20、the international and Chinese markets.Indeed,this years Special Report is filled with both hope and a bit of trepidation.We believe that the US and China will eventually reach a full agreement and the waves of tariffs that truly do not help anyone will soon subside.That,coupled with the softening of
21、 FDI rules and regulations in China,should ease the current question marks over the long-term viability of China-based export manufacturing firms,and buy them some time to adapt to the alternative supply chains.We are the happiest for this as our Chamber,together with the US Chamber of Commerce in W
22、ashington,DC,and other business associations have worked hard through diligent lobbying to bring about a resolution.在中国市场的利润率上升。相比2017年，这些企业的在华年收入占其全球年收入中的贡献率均有所上升。大多数企业表示，其在华总体投资回报是积极的，因此愿意进一步拓展全球市场和中国市场。事实上，今年的特别报告充满了希望，却又夹杂着些许不安。我们相信，美中两国最终将达成全面协议，而无益于任意一方的关税浪潮将很快消退。此外，再加上中国政府对外国直接投资（FDI）政策的放宽，应可
23、缓解当前外界对中国出口制造企业长期生存能力的疑虑，并为其争取一些时间以适应替代供应链。对此通过万般游说、辛勤工作得来的结果，华南美国商会与总部位于美国华盛顿特区的美国全国商会以及其他商协会均感其来之不易。与此同时，我们也很高兴地看到，广州从35个城市中脱颖而出，再次被我们的受访企业选为中国最受欢迎的投资目的地。这之所以意义重大，是因为广州是中国最新国家发展战略“粤港澳大湾区”的支柱城市之一。大部分企业对粤港澳大湾区的未来发展持乐观态度。公众普遍认可的、有助于粤港澳大湾区实现成功的三大关键包括政府的持续支持、基础设施支撑以及区域经济发展，但这离不开于今年2月18日公布的粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要的
24、落地实施。虽然华南地区外资企业的发展正迎来更加美好的时代，但仍有大量工作尚待完成。作为拥有2300多名会员的华南美国商会会长，我明白外企在华面临的绝大多数问题与中央政府无关。大部分问题的产生，均为基层政府的不公平对待以及外资企业依法获得公平听审和公平待遇的渠道或场所少之又少的直接结果。当外资企业与其合资伙伴出现法律纠纷时，企业与政府间的界限往往不仅变得模糊，而且基层司法体系也无补于事，不禁让人体会到老话常言的“民不与官斗”。目前，若外资企业希望脱离基层政府的控制和影响寻求仲裁，几乎所求无门。这些基层市政府一方面与国内合资伙伴方存在财政关系，一方面手持“免死金牌”，充当着该类企业的决策层、法官、
25、审判员及执行者等角色，往往让外资企业的申诉遭到不公平的待遇。在当前程序下，外资企业向上一级政府提请的任何诉求，必均由上一级政府分配至下一级政府裁决。因此，我们敦促中国中央政府建立一个新的司法平台，让外资企业能够提请申诉，并请中央政府能够效1110 We are also pleased to see Guangzhou City was once again voted the favorite destination for investment from over 35 cities across China.This is important because Guangzhou is o
26、ne of the anchoring cities of the new Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA).A majority of the companies remain optimistic towards the future development of the GBA.Continued government backing,infrastructure support,and regional economic development are generally considered the top three i
27、mportant factors to its success,which cannot be accomplished without the implementation of the Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,released on Feb 18,2019.Good things are definitely happening for foreign business in South China,but much more still needs to be
28、done.As the President of a Chamber representing more than 2,300 members,it is clear to me that the vast majority of problems foreign companies are facing in China are not related to central government issues.Many of these problems are a direct result of unfair treatment by low-level municipal govern
29、ments and the fact that rarely is there a proper channel or venue where a foreign entity can get a fair hearing and treatment according to the rule of law.Too often the line between a company and the government is not just blurred but totally erased by lower-level municipal judicial systems when for
30、eign business entities have legal problems with their joint venture counterparts.Basically,the old saying“you cant fight city hall”becomes the rule of law.Currently,very few channels exist where foreign companies can seek arbitration outside the control and influence of the low-level municipal gover
31、nment.These same entities often have financial connections to the domestic party in question.With a free license to kill given to these low-level municipal governmentsand their right as the company executive,judge,jury and enforcercomplaints by foreign companies are not treated fairly.Under the curr
32、ent process,any issue elevated to a higher-level Chinese government by our companies is sent by the higher-level to the very culprit lower-level government for adjudication.仿知识产权法院的做法为其指定监督机构。若中央政府不采取具体措施，终有一日，问题将剧烈爆发，其紧张局势不会逊于美中贸易战。在此之前，我们必须做好准备，避免下一次紧张局势的形成以及中国与他国之间可能爆发的新一轮争端。中国中央政府必须将国有独资企业和国有资本控
33、股企业与基层司法系统划清界限。基层司法系统必须不受外界影响，才能客观公正地做到依法执法。此致 敬礼！哈利赛亚丁博士华南美国商会 会长2017年奥斯陆商业促和平奖 获奖者由诺贝尔和平奖及经济奖评审委员会授予暨南大学 访问学者阿来龙能源 总裁With best regards,Dr.Harley SeyedinPresident,American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaWinner of the 2017 Oslo Business for Peace AwardAwarded by the Award Committee of Nobel Laure
34、ates in Peace&Economics Visiting Scholar,Jinan University,PRCPresident,Allelon Energy PartnersWe urge the central government to create a new judicial venue/vehicle where foreign companies can lodge complaints and where the oversight is designated by the central government just as it is with the IPR
35、Courts.Without concrete steps by the central government,at some point,the pressure cooker lid will explode as it did with the US-China trade tension.Until then,we must brace ourselves for the next time the pressure builds and another set of disputes arise between other nations and China.The China ce
36、ntral government must create greater barriers that separate government-owned and partially-owned businesses from low-level municipal judicial systems.These judicial systems must be free from outside influences so that they are able to interpret laws and civil suits objectively and fairly.1312 United
37、 Airlines and United Express operate an average of nearly 5,000 flights a day to 362 airports across six continents.In 2015,United and United Express operated nearly two million flights carrying 138 million customers.United is proud to have the worlds most comprehensive route network,including U.S.m
38、ainland hubs in Chicago,Den-ver,Houston,Los Angeles,New York/Newark,San Francisco and Washington,D.C.United started non-stop service to China in 1986 and to-day serves Beijing with non-stop flights to Chicago,New York/Newark,San Francisco and Washington,D.C./Dulles,Shanghai with non-stop flights to
39、Chicago,Los Angeles,New York/New-ark and San Francisco;and Hong Kong with non-stop flights to Chicago,New York/Newark,San Francisco,Guam,Singa-pore and Ho Chi Minh City.United is a founding member of Star Alliance,the worlds largest and most comprehensive airline alliance,whose other members include
40、 Air China.United and Air China have a bilateral partnership that in-cludes code-sharing on selected routes and provides custom-ers with both carriers additional travel benefits such as airport lounge access and frequent flyer program reciprocity.美国联合航空公司及联航快运平均每日运营5,000架次航班，飞往6大洲362个机场。2015年，美联航和联航
41、快运的航班总数约200万班次，为1.38亿乘客提供优质的航班服务。美联航凭借其广泛的网络优势，在美国本土芝加哥、丹佛、休斯顿、洛杉矶、纽约/纽瓦克、旧金山及华盛顿等枢纽机场间运营着超过700条主要航线。美国联合航空公司于1986年起开始运营中美直飞的航班服务，包括：北京飞往芝加哥、纽约/纽瓦克、旧金山和华盛顿的直飞航班；上海飞往芝加哥、关岛、洛杉矶、纽约/纽瓦克和旧金山的直飞航班；成都直飞旧金山的航班；香港飞往芝加哥、关岛、纽约/纽瓦克、旧金山、新加坡以及胡志明市的直飞航班。Almost all respondents report that they are profitable in Ch
42、ina,and their overall return on investment in China is higher than their global overall return on investment.Therefore,most remain optimistic towards the business outlook in China.However,fewer companies expect to become profitable in a short pe-riod of time than the last few years.Albeit there were
43、 many negative news stories about the Chinese market in 2018,the reinvestment statistics of the companies in our study indicate that they have not withdrawn from the Chinese market on a large scale,and they still have a strong interest in investing in China.This is mainly because of the growing pote
44、ntial of the Chinese market and its relatively high return on investment.Meanwhile,more than a half of the respondents witness year-on-year growth of employment in their companies in 2018.We also find that while increasing reinvestment in China,some of the companies have shifted some reinvestment to
45、 other countries.The primary reason is the increased operating costs in China.Generally speaking,the business environment in South China is good,and the future development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is considered positive among the companies.What is worth noticing is that increasi
46、ng production costs,rising labor costs,and shortage of qualified personnel have been constraints on South Chinas further development.Even though the opinion of participating com-panies appear polarized concerning the prospect of the US-China relationship,most of the respondents believe that the disp
47、ute between the US and China may be further expanded in 2019.As the US-China trade friction has been going on for some time,the companies participating in our study expect that the impact of the dispute on enterprises will continue.So far,the negative impact of combined tariffs on compa-nies has exc
48、eeded the positive impact.Approximately 30 percent of the respondents have lost market share due to the imposed tariffs.Most of the companies have taken advantage of the 90-day truce between the US and China to adjust their development strategies and actively respond to the uncertainties brought by
49、the trade disputes.Key Takeaways关键要点大部分受访企业已在华获得盈利，其在华的投资回报率相比全球投资回报率更高，因此对中国市场的增长仍保持乐观的态度；但同时，能在短时间内迅速实现盈利的受访企业大幅减少。虽然2018年中国市场存在许多负面消息，但我们受访企业的再投资数据表明企业并没有大面积地撤离中国市场，且对投资中国仍有浓厚的兴趣，主要原因为中国市场的增长潜力及其相对高的投资回报率。同时，大部分的受访企业表示他们企业的雇员人数同比有所攀升。我们也发现，企业在增加在华投资的同时，仍有一部分企业正将再投资转移到其他国家，其中最重要的原因为中国运营成本的上涨。受访企业普
50、遍对华南地区营商环境表示满意，对粤港澳大湾区未来发展持积极乐观的态度，但值得注意的是总体生产成本上升、人力资源成本上涨及合格人才的匮乏已逐渐成为制约华南地区进一步发展的重要因素。受访企业对美中关系前景的展望呈现两极分化的趋势，大部分受访企业认为美中两国的纷争在2019年有进一步扩大的可能。由于美中贸易摩擦已持续一段时间，预期这场贸易争端对企业的影响仍将继续，迄今为止两国贸易关税给企业带来的负面影响比正面影响大，约三成受访企业因此而丢失市场份额。大部分受访企业均利用美中两国90天“休战期”调整企业发展战略，积极应对贸易纷争带来的不稳定因素。Special Sponsor特别赞助商02 Study
