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巴黎银行-欧洲-宏观策略-2019年春季英国宏观预览-20190311-7页.pdf

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1、MARKET VIEW MARKET ECONOMICS|G10 INTEREST RATES KEY MESSAGES On Wednesday the Chancellor unveils a new set of economic forecasts from the OBR,which could be rendered redundant by the series of Brexit votes taking place in Parliament.As a result,we expect Mr Hammond to keep his pledge of making this

2、a simple update rather than a full-blown fiscal event.Should MPs ultimately vote for the Withdrawal Agreement though,he could tentatively hint at giveaways to come.With little in the way of tax and policy changes to convey therefore,the focus is likely to be on economic projections,which we expect t

3、o be downgraded.FLASH|UK 11 March 2019 Brexit votes to dominate.This years Spring Statement will be released in the aftermath of what we anticipate will be another defeat for the Governments Brexit deal(see Brexit The Extendables).As a result,the validity of the forecasts may be put in question give

4、n that the Office for Budget Responsibility(OBR)is likely to continue to base them on a“relatively smooth exit from the EU”.Lower growth.Even on the basis of an orderly exit,we expect the OBR to revise lower its 2019 GDP forecast from 1.6%to around 1.2%,given that uncertainty has dragged on longer t

5、han anticipated.It is unlikely to make sweeping changes to the forecasts further out,however,as its longer-term assumptions will probably remain unchanged.Lower borrowing.Better-than-expected outturns for the public finances and lower expected debt interest spending should mean that the OBR lowers i

6、ts borrowing forecasts,though it may only assume part of Januarys surprisingly-strong surplus is sustained.Employment surveys suggest the news could get worse in the near term on income tax receipts.Note too that the likely reduction in debt interest spending is unlikely to be sustained if a deal is

7、 reached we would expect gilt yields and short-term rates to rise.As a result,the Chancellor will be wary of spending any windfall until the Brexit outcome is known,thereby saving any further giveaways for the Autumn Statement and Spending Review.So overall,we expect the Spring Statement to be a fai

8、rly benign affair,with attention to remain on Brexit.Paul Hollingsworth,UK Economist|Parisha Saimbi,G10 FX and Sterling Rates Strategist|BNP Paribas London Branch Please refer to important information at the end of this report UK Spring Statement 2019 preview 1 Fig.1:PMI employment and tax receipts

9、Sources:Markit,BNP Paribas The changes to net borrowing and consequently the central governments net cash requirement in FY19/20 are likely to be insignificant,in our view.However,gross financing needs are already set to rise,with GBP32.4bn more redemptions than in FY18/19.We expect this will be ful

10、ly financed by the gilt programme.Other tweaks to the UK Debt Management Offices(DMO)remit may include:(i)an increase in the average auction size;(ii)an increase in the percentage proportion of shorts and mediums;and(iii)a continued gradual decline in the percentage proportion of ILBs issued.We do n

11、ot expect these changes to impact markets significantly though,as they have been flagged in previous minutes of the UK DMOs consultations with investors and GEMMS and hence are a product of shifting demand needs.Also,any changes in the remit split are likely to be gradual.With ongoing APF reinvestme

12、nts,the seasonal pick-up in LDI hedging activity in Q1 and any lingering Brexit uncertainty if Article 50 is extended,gilt yields may stay grounded near term.We would look to consider short ASW positions from mid-April,however,when these effects may begin to dissipate.Legal Notice This document has

13、been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies(collectively“BNPP”);it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis,and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of

14、this report.This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication.This document is not invest

15、ment research for the purposes of MiFID II.It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of investment research,and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.The content in this document/commun

16、ication may also contain“Research”as defined under the MiFID II unbundling rules.If the document/communication contains Research,it is intended for those firms who are either in scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and have signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages,or firms tha

17、t are out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules and therefore not required to pay for Research under MiFID II.Please note that it is your firms responsibility to ensure that you do not view or use the Research content in this document if your firm has not signed up to one of the BNPP Global Mark

18、ets Research packages,except where your firm is out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules.STEER is a trade mark of BNPP.MARKETS 360 is a trade mark of BNP Paribas This document constitutes a marketing communication and has been prepared by BNPP for,and is directed at,(a)Professional Clients and

19、Eligible Counterparties as defined by the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive(2014/65/EU)(MiFID II),and(b)where relevant,persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5)of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000(Financial Prom

20、otion)Order 2005,and at other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated(together“Relevant Persons”)under the regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons.Any

21、person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this document or its content.Securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from,or are based

22、on,public sources believed to be reliable,but there is no guarantee of the accuracy,completeness or fitness for any particular purpose of such information and such information may not have been independently verified by BNPP or by any person.None of BNPP,any of its subsidiary undertakings or affilia

23、tes or its members,directors,officers,agents or employees accepts any responsibility or liability whatsoever or makes any representation or warranty,express or implied,as to the accuracy and completeness of the information or any opinions based thereon and contained in this document and it should no

24、t be relied upon as such.This document does not constitute or form any part of any offer to sell or issue and is not a solicitation of any offer to purchase any financial instrument,nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of,or be relied on,in connection with a

25、ny contract or investment decision.To the extent that any transaction is subsequently entered into between the recipient and BNPP,such transaction will be entered into upon such terms as may be agreed by the parties in the relevant documentation.Information and opinions contained in this document ar

26、e published for the information of recipients,but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient,are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein.In

27、 providing this document,BNPP does not offer investment,financial,legal,tax or any other type of advice to,nor has any fiduciary duties towards,recipients.Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future performance,which may be better or worse than prior results.Any hypothetical,past p

28、erformance simulations are the result of estimates made by BNPP,as of a given moment,on the basis of parameters,market conditions,and historical data selected by BNPP,and should not be used as guidance,in any way,of future performance.To the fullest extent permitted by law,no BNPP group company acce

29、pts any liability whatsoever(including in negligence)for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on material contained in this document even where advised of the possibility of such losses.All estimates and opinions included in this document are made as of the date of th

30、is document.Unless otherwise indicated in this document there is no intention to update this document.BNPP may make a market in,or may,as principal or agent,buy or sell securities of any issuer or person mentioned in this document or derivatives thereon.Prices,yields and other similar information in

31、cluded in this document are included for information purposes however numerous factors will affect market pricing at any particular time,such information may be subject to rapid change and there is no certainty that transactions could be executed at any specified price.BNPP may have a financial inte

32、rest in any issuer or person mentioned in this document,including a long or short position in their securities and/or options,futures or other derivative instruments based thereon,or vice versa.BNPP,including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer,director or in an advisor

33、y capacity for any person mentioned in this document.BNPP may,from time to time,solicit,perform or have performed investment banking,underwriting or other services(including acting as adviser,manager,underwriter or lender)within the last 12 months for any person referred to in this document.BNPP may

34、 be a party to an agreement with any person relating to the production of this document.BNPP may to the extent permitted by law,have acted upon or used the information contained herein,or the analysis on which it was based,before the document was published.BNPP may receive or intend to seek compensa

35、tion for investment banking services in the next three months from or in relation to any person mentioned in this document.Any person mentioned in this document may have been provided with relevant sections of this document prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy.This docume

36、nt is for information purposes only and there is no assurance that a transaction(s)will be entered into on such indicative terms.Any indicative price(s)contained herein have been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and calculation methods and/or are based on or use av

37、ailable price sources where considered relevant.Indicative price(s)based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Numerous factors may affect the price(s),which may or may not be taken into account.Therefore,these indicative price(s)may vary significantly from indicative price(

38、s)obtained from other sources or market participants.BNPP expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of its own internal models or calculation methods,the accuracy or reliability of any price sources used,any errors or omissions in computing or disseminating these indica

39、tive price(s),and for any use you make of the price(s)provided.The indicative price(s)do not represent(i)the actual terms on which a new transaction could be entered into,(ii)the actual terms on which any existing transactions could be unwound,(iii)the calculation or estimate of an amount that would

40、 be payable following an early termination of the transactions or(iv)the price(s)given to the transactions by BNPP in its own books of account for financial reporting,credit or risk management purposes.As an investment bank with a wide range of activities,BNPP may face conflicts of interest,which ar

41、e resolved under applicable legal provisions and internal guidelines.You should be aware,however,that BNPP may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views expressed in this document,either for its own account or for the account of its clients.This document may contain certain perf

42、ormance data based on back-testing,i.e.simulations of performance of a strategy,index or assets as if it had actually existed during a defined period of time.To the extent any such performance data is included,the scenarios,simulations,development expectations and forecasts contained in this documen

43、t are for illustrative purposes only.All estimates and opinions included in this document constitute the judgment of BNPP and its affiliates as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice.This type of information has inherent limitations which recipients must consider car

44、efully.While the information has been prepared in good faith in accordance with BNPPs own internal models and other relevant sources,an analysis based on different models or assumptions may yield different results.Unlike actual performance records,simulated performance returns or scenarios may not n

45、ecessarily reflect certain market factors such as liquidity constraints,fees and transactions costs.Actual historical or back tested past performance does not constitute an indication of future results or performance.This document is only intended to generate discussion regarding particular products

46、 and investments and is subject to change or may be discontinued.We are willing to discuss it with you on the understanding that you have sufficient knowledge,experience and professional advice to understand and make your own independent evaluation of the merits and risk of the information and any p

47、roposed structures.The information contained herein is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as,a prospectus,an advertisement,a public offering,an offer to sell securities described herein,or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein,in Canada,the U.S.or any other provi

48、nce or territory nor shall it be deemed to provide investment,tax,accounting or other advice.Transactions involving the product(s)described in this document may involve a high degree of risk and the value of such transactions may be highly volatile.Such risks include,without limitation,risk of adver

49、se or unanticipated market developments,risk of counterparty or issuer default,risk of adverse events involving any underlying reference obligation or entity and risk of illiquidity.In certain transactions,counterparties may lose their entire investment or incur an unlimited loss.The information rel

50、ating to performance contained in this document is illustrative and no assurance is given that any indicated returns,performance or results will be achieved.Moreover,past performance is not indicative of future results.Information herein is believed reliable but BNPP and its affiliates do not warran

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