1、C O R P O R AT I O NMICHAEL J.MAZARR,ASHLEY L.RHOADES,NATHAN BEAUCHAMP-MUSTAFAGA,ALEXIS A.BLANC,DEREK EATON,KATIE FEISTEL,EDWARD GEIST,TIMOTHY R.HEATH,CHRISTIAN JOHNSON,KRISTA LANGELAND,JASMIN LVEILL,DARA MASSICOT,SAMANTHA MCBIRNEY,STEPHANIE PEZARD,CLINT REACH,PADMAJA VEDULA,EMILY YODERDisrupting De
2、terrenceExamining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st CenturyResearch ReportFor more information on this publication,visit www.rand.org/t/RRA595-1.About RANDThe RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make co
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7、rporation,Santa Monica,Calif.2022 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.ISBN:978-1-9774-0933-1Cover:Black_Kira/Getty Images.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s)conta
8、ined herein are protected by law.This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only.Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited;linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged.Permission is required from RAND to reproduce,or reuse in
9、another form,any of its research products for commercial purposes.For information on reprint and reuse permissions,please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.iii About This Report Emerging technologies introduced by competitors will profoundly shape the way that the United States thinks about deterr
10、ence,seeks to deter aggression from its adversaries,and provides assurance for its allies.Currently,China,Russia,and other actors are conducting research and development activities in a host of emerging technology areas.Accompanying these activities are potential security implications.Although some
11、research efforts have begun exploring the effect that such technologies could have on operational outcomes,very little is known about their potential relationship to strategic deterrence.Through a fiscal year 2020 study,Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century,RAND Corporation researchers took on th
12、e task of identifying the potential connections between emerging technologies and deterrence.This report serves as the studys primary deliverable,summarizing the teams findings on how the interactive practice of deterrence is likely to evolve over the next two decades under the influence of various
13、current and emerging technologies.This research should be of value to the U.S.Air Force and the broader U.S.national security community,because it provides insights into the type of policies and investments that may be required to sustain effective deterrence in the National Security Strategy.The re
14、search reported here was commissioned by the U.S.Air Forces Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration Office(AF/A10)and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2020 project Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century.RAND Project AIR FORC
15、E RAND Project AIR FORCE(PAF),a division of the RAND Corporation,is the Department of the Air Forces(DAFs)federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses,supporting both the United States Air Force and the United States Space Force.PAF provides the DAF with independent anal
16、yses of policy alternatives affecting the development,employment,combat readiness,and support of current and future air,space,and cyber forces.Research is conducted in four programs:Strategy and Doctrine;Force Modernization and Employment;Resource Management;and Workforce,Development,and Health.The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000.Additional information about PAF is available on our website:www.rand.org/paf/This report documents work originally shared with the
