1、Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics:Recent Trends,Challenges,and DevelopmentsBruno Casella,Maria Borga,and Konstantin M.Wacker WP/23/113IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage deba
2、te.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2023JUN群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信，备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收
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4、 Statistics DepartmentMeasuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics:Recent Trends,Challenges,and DevelopmentsPrepared by Bruno Casella,Maria Borga,and Konstantin M.WackerAuthorized for distribution by Carlos Snchez-Muoz June 2023Abstract In a complex global production
5、landscape,the quest for measures of economic activity by multinational enterprises(MNEs)has become more pressing.Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)statistics,which capture financing aspects of MNEs,have often been used as a proxy for multinational production given their wide availability and cross-count
6、ry comparability,but concerns that multinational production occurs in different countries than where financial positions are recorded call this practice into question.This paper revisits the main objections to the use of FDI as a proxy for multinational production,explores counterarguments,and provi
7、des guidance on the use of FDI statistics to measure multinational production.JEL Classification Numbers:F20,F23,C82Keywords:FDI;multinational production;multinational enterprises;foreign affiliatesAuthors E-Mail Address:bruno.casellaunctad.org;mborgaimf.org;k.m.wackerrug.nlMaria Borga is Deputy Div
8、ision Chief in the Balance of Payments Division,IMF;Bruno Casella is Senior Economist at the Division of Investment and Enterprise,UNCTAD;Konstantin M.Wacker is an assistant professor at the University of Groningen,Netherlands.The authors are grateful to Richard Bolwijn(UNCTAD),Carlos Snchez-Muoz(IM
9、F),Jannick Damgaard(IMF),and Thomas Elkjaer(IMF)for helpful comments.Substantial statistical and research inputs were provided by Gregory Auclaire(UNCTAD).IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed
10、 in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Recent Trends,Challenges,and Developments Prepared by Bruno Casella
11、,Maria Borga,and Konstantin M.Wacker1 1 Maria Borga is Deputy Division Chief in the Balance of Payments Division,IMF;Bruno Casella is Senior Economist at the Division of Investment and Enterprise,UNCTAD;Konstantin M.Wacker is an assistant professor at the University of Groningen,Netherlands.The corr
12、esponding author is Konstantin Wacker:k.m.wackerrug.nl.The authors are grateful to Richard Bolwijn(UNCTAD),Carlos Sanchez Munoz(IMF),Jannick Damgaard(IMF),and Thomas Elkjaer(IMF)for helpful comments.Substantial statistical and research inputs were provided by Gregory Auclaire(UNCTAD).IMF WORKING PAP
13、ERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Contents Glossary.3 Executive Summary.4 Introduction.5 I.How to Unmask“Phantom FDI”?.8 Critique 1:“Phantom FDI”through offshore financial centers is driven by financial and tax motives,weakening the relationship between
14、 FDI and multinational production.8 II.Bilateral FDI Statistics:How Much of a Puzzle?.15 Critique 2:Offshore financial centers act as middlemen between investors country of origin and final destination,making ultimate investor countries invisible in bilateral FDI statistics.15 III.Beyond Phantom FDI
15、:Source of Funds vs Use of Funds.21 Critique 3:FDI is a specific source of funds and does not capture local and non-affiliated sources of financing of multinational operations.21 IV.Improving FDI Data:Recent Progress and Developments.24 V.Conclusion and Guidelines for Applied Research.25 References.
16、27 FIGURES 1.Main Critiques of the Use of FDI Data to Measure Multinational Production and Recent Developments and Findings.8 2.An Illustrative Scheme of Conduit FDI.10 3.Relationship Between FDI Inward Stock and Inward Sales of Foreign Affiliates,OECD Countries,2016,US$millions.14 4.Germanys Inward
17、 FDI Stock and FATS Turnover by Partner(Investor)Country,Share in Total,Top Ten Largest Ultimate Investors in Germany,2016.16 5.Comparison Between Germany Reported Positions by Ultimate Investing Economy(UIE),Reported Positions by Immediate Direct Investor and Estimated Positions by UIE,Share in Tot
18、al,Top Ten Largest UIEs in Germany,2016.17 6.Relationship Between Immediate and Ultimate FDI Stocks in Bilateral Data.19 7.Relationship Between FDI Stock and Operational Data.23 TABLES 1.The Size of SPEs:Comparison Between Estimated and Reported and Between UNCTAD and DEJ Estimates,2016.13 2.Gravity
19、 Estimation for Immediate and Ultimate FDI Determinants.20 IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Glossary BEPS Base Erosion and Profit Shifting BoP Balance of Payments CDIS Coordinated Direct Investment Survey FA Foreign Affiliate FATS Foreig
20、n Affiliate Statistics FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product IIP International Investment Position MNE Multinational Enterprise OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OFC Offshore Financial Center SPE Special Purpose Entity UNCTAD United Nations Conference on T
21、rade and Development UIE Ultimate Investing Economy US BEA United States Bureau of Economic Analysis IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Executive Summary Given the importance of multinational enterprises(MNEs)in the world economy,it is imp
22、ortant for policymakers,researchers and analysts to properly measure their economic activity.It is common to use foreign direct investment(FDI)statistics for this purpose because they are widely available and comparable across countries.Since FDI statistics capture the financing aspects of MNEs,rece
23、nt research has questioned this use of FDI statistics due to concerns that the production of MNEs happens in different economies than where they record financial positions.The most prominent critique of the use of FDI statistics has been that MNEs can channel their investments through an enterprise
24、resident in one economy to an enterprise in another economy.The channelling of FDI through multiple jurisdictions,also called conduit FDI,happens for a variety of reasons,including access to sophisticated tax and financial services,to protect parent companies against claims on their affiliates,and t
25、o protect their investments against political risk.This practice inflates FDI statistics and obscures the ultimate investors and destinations of FDI.While conduit FDI can occur in any economy,it is most associated with offshore financial centers(OFCs)in which the OFC acts as intermediate jurisdictio
26、n between the investors economy of origin and the final destination of FDI.It has been estimated that between 30 and 40 percent of total FDI stock is routed through OFCs.This paper highlights the progress that researchers and the international statistical community have made in addressing these conc
27、erns.The international statistical community has developed guidelines and initiated collection of data on Special Purpose Entities(SPEs),which are entities that are often involved in channelling FDI through OFCs.Identifying transactions and positions of SPEs separately from other direct investment e
28、nterprises enables the identification of pure conduit activities.If FDI data to and from SPEs are not available,it is possible to rely on alternative analytical methods to estimate the role of SPEs in aggregate FDI statistics,which we discuss in this paper.These methods build on the statistical corr
29、elation between gross domestic product and FDI stock to estimate the size of conduit FDI.The statistical community has also developed guidance on the recording of FDI positions by the ultimate investing economy(UIE)to look through the conduit economies and reveal the ultimate origin of FDI in an eco
30、nomy.Where such statistics are not yet available,researchers have developed analytical methods to address the gap between direct and ultimate bilateral statistics generated by channelling FDI through OFCs.Finally,it is important to remember that when the bilateral link involves non-OFC economies,sta
31、ndard bilateral FDI statistics already identify ultimate investors relatively well.Researchers who regard FDI statistics as a proxy for multinational production should consider the following practical steps:(1)Explore the metadata to understand the coverage of FDI statistics(e.g.,whether it includes
32、 SPEs or not and whether SPEs are reported separately);(2)Take into account the institutional setting of the economies being studied to understand if factors that can distort the relationship between FDI positions and multinational production are present;(3)Adjust for FDI to and from SPEs by using p
33、ublished data combined with one of the available analytical methods;(4)In the analysis of bilateral FDI statistics,identify ultimate investors using published data combined with one of the available analytical methods discussed;and(5)Compare and complement FDI data with other relevant data sources,i
34、ncluding project-based data,firm-level data,survey-level data,and trade and value added trade data when available.With care taken in their use,IIP-based FDI statistics remain an important and instrumental data source to study and understand multinational production.IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multi
35、national Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Introduction Foreign direct investment(FDI)is a key category of international investment.According to the most recent vintage of the dataset of Lane and Milesi-Ferretti(2021),FDI stocks accounted for some 30 percent of global cross-border
36、 liabilities in 2015,and FDI accounted for over half of foreign financing in more than a third of countries,most of them developing.Together with statistics on portfolio investment and other cross-border investment(such as cross-border bank loans),FDI positions reflect financial exposure and interna
37、tional financial integration across countries.What distinguishes FDI from other international investment is the idea that the FDI investor seeks a lasting interest in and a significant degree of influence over an enterprise in another economy.1 This definition has historically motivated the use of F
38、DI data from the Balance of Payments as a proxy for multinational enterprises production,activities and presence in the host economy because the foreign enterprises receiving FDI(direct investment enterprises)are largely foreign subsidiaries,branches,and associates of multinational groups.In this pa
39、per,we refer to“multinational production”as a concept that quantifies the real activity of MNEs affiliates,such as output or sales,in line with the seminal academic literature(e.g.,Ramondo et al.,2015;Alviarez,2019;Arkolakis et al.,2018;Miroudot and Rigo,2021).However,there have long been concerns a
40、bout the adequacy of FDI statistics to measure patterns of multinational production that have increased in recent years(e.g.,Lipsey,2007;Beugelsdijk et al.,2010;Leino and Ali-Yrkk,2014;Blanchard and Acalin,2016;Sauvant,2017;Linsi and Mugge,2019).As discussed further below,these papers have highlight
41、ed that the production activities of MNEs may not occur in the locations where they record their financial positions,raising questions when FDI statistics can adequately be used.Those empirical contributions were mostly based on comparing FDI statistics to data on the activities of MNEs that statist
42、ical agencies in a few countries,including the United States,Sweden,and Japan,had collected in recognition of the need for a data collection specifically designed to measure multinational production.In 2007,Eurostat began its first data collection of Foreign Affiliate Statistics(FATS).2 However,ther
43、e has not been much progress in expanding the coverage of these data as only a few additional countries have introduced such data collections since then.3 Lipsey(2007)found differences between outward FDI data for the United States and statistics on the activities of U.S.MNEs abroad,including their
44、employment,value added and property,plant and equipment;the differences were especially significant in industry distributions.He attributed those differences to the tax avoidance strategies of U.S.MNEs and to the increasing importance of intangible assets in production.4 1 Ownership of 10 percent of
45、 the voting power of an enterprise by a non-resident investor is taken as evidence of a direct investment relationship.2 FATS are foreign affiliate statistics based on exhaustive or quasi-exhaustive census-type surveys of multinational enterprises.Inward FATS describe the operating activities of ent
46、erprises that are controlled by MNEs that are resident in another country or economy.They include variables such as employment,turnover,and value added and are typically compiled by developed economies.The indicator inward foreign affiliate turnover employed in Figure 3(y-axis)is an example of FATS.
47、The OECD collects statistics on the Activities of Multinational Enterprises(AMNE)from its members;AMNE statistics cover FATS as well as statistics on the activities of MNE parent companies.3 In 2008,the OECDs Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment,fourth edition attempted to better align
48、FDI statistics with multinational production by,for example,recommending the separate identification of FDI to and from resident Special Purpose Entities and the classification of FDI positions by the Ultimate Investing Country.4 For an approach to derive intangible asset income from global producti
49、on networks,see Chen et al.(2021).IMF WORKING PAPERS Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Using a similar analytical approach of comparing FDI and foreign affiliates statistics,Beugelsdijk et al.(2010)found a systematic over-estimation of foreign affiliates(FA
50、s)operations in specific jurisdictions classified as offshore financial centers(OFCs).5 Conversely,they also find an underestimation of foreign affiliate operations(e.g.,sales or value added)by FDI statistics in countries with more advanced financial systems that is attributed to non-FDI financing(i
