1、-.*.1t,-(natural rate of unemployment)M=m:lti;IJlJ-fj$J*ft$,filM=:tftJi:j:r ili$,nll*ft*-o*ft*-$M&M!1-#.*AAlli$JE*ft*-*ft$o*ft$1l:ltmF:P:N=E+U CNft-i;IJh,Eft.aftIAA.vft*ftIAA)u*=-N i.9:WtllR$cf):J:lt-i-JH;lGf1JifF,l1*#!Ji9tl:/PIJR$C/):4ij-i-J1*IfFl1Wti!f 8 i9tl o.i;IJ$-#:I JU=IE JU=l(N-U)NH:u=-1-+N
2、l+f eyili:attll*fIJR$11JR$/:IJR*ft$M:WtllR$M.*ft$Mf!L=1J;ljf-1.l!iA m.meyctmmiril;IJ-:tEtt.mwm 11:.P D s D-N.!&N ;le.!&N 00 5-1*1lAM 0011Jfttt1J#i;1Jh*l1-MMo:tffil*-(J 800!1Ba.(-)1JIA*l1.-:tmffl1$Im$FIo 36 I.2.m.JM1.J;JcJ:I mmTttf!JRZ*.tltE*.tET-tl*.MM&z-*.ImAtt.miliMHt.tE-s D N1 N2 N*N P.&;lc 00 5-
3、2-1JJa/,Mff ooo 5-2 Ji)f.8Jifrm(-Y.-f-f.JI*iv-(J.Jltlt-f)l,Ji:NI.(N2-N1),(N-N2).-=:,;Jcml 1.tt9clJml I iF f,Jfiz:f.I 8JIZ1nG:tt:m1t-trBJ,E13lltff;PX;fi;!gtt;Jc .lftt:lf:lt-f 81.,.,.itfll*MRFiib-litE*tifbft*lf.f.,MfF5lilJJ1-*t!M:E*.#IPJfrf!Jt!rRZfaJB(Jft*tPX;mH1ti.79$:tiifz:1it-J-.-i;itiilJ*8(*.lfttf
4、B(Jj-1 0 2.f/Jtt;Jc1J#;Jtt:lf:mf.IB(JiMSfllft*II11F.JiJTPX;B(J.i?.:lf:tOC4f*XIUHft(ljk:.9:8Jttfl,Ji-fit!.i?.3 Jltxj:)1i;:fHmB(J!UHir(ljk:.itefttB(J-1*D:lf:I mtt.ImttmB(J-t-*MwmB(Jl.ImttB(J Cl):iiilIm C2)*-Im C3)I8(1tfif.lt 2:13iWtJU!flMffJJAltt9citJi!llMtt9clJrRjIJ,-!Rj!JtE1.M9cmlIM.13W1it.m.C*Gmt2*
5、801 21f 2015 liJfJ:CI)tin:mE I.;k!fi;k#.A-3 Jl!Jllij:f Jlj lljtij.fa Yf JJ!lij 0 2.JE Wf$i_R.ll)3 A-J!lill i*J f=.tl!3;k$Z.fBJA-3:1d.f*OO!M=*iiJl0 W(Arthur.Okun)tEliJf1l:Li*Z.fBJ8gMmA-J-#mf*,-;fUfflOO 551-*ltM 1947=*liU 1960-*li)*;kftooi*Jf=AmA-Jtt.jiMA-Ja.tJ:J&*zrBJ:c*A-J-1m.Wf*hi*l1t:f;k$l 180-.p
6、GDP fff:tE GDP 2180-.Wf*ffl0J:t:tg=Y-Y-1=-a(u-u)y JI;*,y:lgP,f,f=tl:J,Yr:lgi!tEf=tl:J,u:lgp;k$,u:lg;k$,ah*fB(J.v,ooA-JOOM.Wf$m*mmmooc.*ootttt A D liJf 1E?JTliJf 1L ff.!Bfj:tE (Jg ft i.W f$:tE*00;k.9(?-:P!#f:l:fHE:.A-3 *1*-.i17j!#:c*),f.f:.1$:Jli.R.llJ3 7!#f:11H55J!Jt!OC;kftZ.fBJfftEffi:c:c.-,li11i:l
7、*A-Jm I.ift*lL1til.ll7t tliliji:&J:BllK:m&4m1fl Lf!-8(btf9tl:tE 10%rg.A-Jji:&J:Bft:mim11tBJIK$:tE 10%-100%Z.fBJ.lll!im1-*=mim:&J:na 100%L.$m f8L!OC)(s9a%zFo.2.Mift*l.A-JJIJ7t WA-Jji:&J:BllK:&#A-J1flm8ffiLf!-.W A-3 im:&i:W JlK:-lt#1fl m L fr A-3 19Ht:ti 7i:i:ffi .3.AfnA-JffiMJl*ffiMim:&i:WllK:iftmLf!
8、-OOlt&tllAmffi.!OC*Amm*mmL.ffiMOOji:&J:WllK:x:tgttim:&i:BJJK,mmf$A-J-38 L=ii1Jil*l.JJ!i:riim1.J.m*lli7#Mff,PJ*tt*731-noo:-m.#Mffmffl1JiEct*l.Jtt:=m*Mff,SMM*l.JM&l.JM&:Mm-1.JM&*-E1.J.tt1JiE.1.1JiffiaB1JiJB(tcH!-fi11Jiffitt,:!mfiiI:i!-t-R.ia?a1*$:823 Vi=$:c i&11#f$:,iffinm*)2oos.fiJf J=-R.fl-7El.Jirll
9、tt,:ff:f:i:OO.Imm:!m:iimma-M.1-m*$*1.J1irm*J:.mmn PY=MV PJf:P=MV,Xf;ttvijitBft;fflfl:y /Jn P=In M+In V-In Y .dP dM dJ.dY.-=-+-p M V Y dP dA!dV dY 7r=-=-+-.P M V Y lJE1Jiffi1itii&73tt.Jiltl dfl=0,il*M#fitf:7E*ztl.Jf=lli7l.3F,dY=0,Jlt.fl v .y dP=dM.1frm7k-f-ffi-tt.RPim1JiEie:i:ffiVi.ffiiRJi:,iftPJtj.i
10、A-73 iim p M.,.-#1JifflJW.m.aJW.i:m*.iimEsla1Ji mm:!ifl*tJJ.511tilli1Jil*l.J*:fllfE-sqJ1i:ffi m*:JJa.flff*,1*re;f!l#f1.JPJ511tii1JiE.fff i;J:_hiR.:ff:f:i:OO.1 2.ffl,1if*ftHt*Mff(1)*tLl.J*tLsqifilJ1i:JJKxwi*m.*i1.-?.JT51111.J-fflm7k-fsq*1.JJ:.39 p y y y 1 2 f y 00 5-3 *1.fiJ;t.J 81lm1ii:.1*A=ma.A*/F-
11、oosm.ftmA.A*tt m.m/F:-mr#ft-.AR:RmttFm.&ttmm*f.b*;1JJ!:i it1JJE%bt;Fit/Fifi.-*1t*R51-m J:.*nX:1ii:nL.(2)PX;*:JttzJ 1*J/.$:1ll9JW1ii:nocxJ*1ii:noc 1ii:1*.mft:ff WI:RttlR.rm r7Joo nX:/.$:ttt.Pff51-ftift:Jk#MIUaJ:.CD Imm l9J w 1ii:noc!J:ii I ml9JJffi1ii:noc m/F 5e:i:;p-s1 z;tJ m:i:mJi1 I m tt -&iftm*-f
12、 EJj J:l51C.j/t Im-11rm!iAiE=IHit51m*_l51C.iffmJ:X.5ljt:gIm.JS:W.Immta11rmJ:81E*nX:7 tAtEJ:t J:ft-z;tJ.8lE.;fiJ jll;tj Jm 1ii:.1*JI ml9JW1ii:nocmf!Jmrtr:i:mh11mtt-nmm7k-fJ:AD 13 12 f1 Y_r y 00 5-4 J/.$:1ll9J1ii:1*005m.A*./F.l9J.Rilift7Joo.Aa-l9J.mmm*-f/FJ:.WAF/Fr.3.!Stt16:1*tt3m1ii:1*=m-Tm-z;tJ.m-&m
13、mlk-fMJ:.A:mt:J:r:ff:ftW3:kgilfl R:R1t:k$flf!JR3RMfl:F$tittXtjc$fTfaF$tR:ttt!iMfl:ffeffMflf!J:&Mfl:7fiiX$flf!J7f!iX$fl),fiJ-1-$flBi71txlifITTr:L WI m.mJ:tt-.mz;tJrtr:i:mtt:RW31-WflImm-J:tt-.wffl-1-Wfl 40 L p ADo AD1 AS y(a)y 00 5-5 jj1Ji91*1tE y(b)y 005ft00*T-EiliAR*a*ittlMAUA.-I.,fflm.t:fl-ilJ Pi 0
14、 ffm.t:fl-51I-1R;ii,jj(i(JI.tmWU-lttlrPJftUZ9J&7900 5-5:t!OO*AA.-lttl El3 ASI Uz;!JilJ ASi Er.JI*fi:(i(J$1Jifjji&,A.fj!f-lj.-*lttlEl3 ADI Uz;iJilJ AD2 0:f:Emif Er.Jfflml(-f Pi r fdf 8.E!-ilf*lttl AD2 mifE(.J.E!,fnl!i ASl Z.fBJ 1JY1fRE.TX.1t-1-:x1fli 5l:i Er.J&e*-fflmm-.t.X7-Er.JIEr.J.to 1l9,i!1JiIJI
15、C(i(J.1;$:1.BiWJJIJ(i(Ji!1JiIJIC.1;$:Cl)ij!Px.*:mfflmir.lEr.lPx.*o imIJ!CitJl:C.(l(Jffl,Mrmf=.7 Px.*o C2)ftPx.*:R1ii91*$.it-rAillEr.J1iiffi*mff,Nm.&ftPx.*o C3)mJ:H!lil:if-$mR1ii91*8JJllfYTmff:l.ffi.o c 4)ffixtfflmZ9JEr.Jc.3:Er.J:mni&_-f ffixtfflm,MW51 ffenl!*Er.J gM=x(5)SL:f:ffl7(-fgz;IJ51 IE9.m:fo
16、2.*BiMJIJEr.Ji!1J!IJIC.1;$:;fdY!MilJ Er.JR1iiIJICEr.JJJllfliJ lt.J5:8,-aTBiAAEr.JR1iiBIJICEr.JfffOJ-#Px.*.(2):f-&rEr.J:tmEr.JN:5to c 3)ffixtffi-mZ9Jt1stm.ffiim.t ffl.tz&xtg:ffl.t*.*r;ffl.t 41 00 5-6$tlJWT fl:M 00 5-6*$1h;if-$u*87f-ji*.7l,IPJ:tlF1JftlifH1(JlibP/13$tlJWT!tllo ii u:iF El$.IJ!IJHIJMlttl
17、PJ:iF/13:i.tr=-&_(u-u.)I 1Jfi#E1i:.3$Mfi1it$.ifrmJJf mt.tft-0=$lWi!tlllf.Jjf)(tE-IEBt.c.t.Ff.fPJiiI-1Sf:tJJJm:ktt*lil111i:*-33f.Lt.lilli1.-*!iltJfdlil11ti JWJ JJK 81 ililJ tEJ!t 3f.lti P L lil111i:JJ*-ri tit,PJ jii1:;mti 8(i1f il&Jt 1 m.,A).t.!BJ,t;J.:WCJt:K1Ltlill:M.JWJJJK$:3$i1JJll1,*=1fO;lH1HfiJ&
18、Jfittlfl11JiJWJ*$miJ.t;J.f!f:tiq*mi!&-.tli-2 3 4 5 u(%)00 5-7$JtfWT!tll-!:3il&JtiEffl IPJ:tlF1JM8(j$tfWTHtl-Tlil111i:WJJKff8(j-*!B(JmM.-*m tE 2 o tit 2 60:ft lf!-AA z Rtr ti.:ME!f:ro tt1i:m73Tlil111i:W*$-1N*#ffi#-G&N*#Bo 1m5mn=+il!i:M:Wnoc=,wffiMwritt11Jwritt1)2ottt2ooAA.-OO*iliTlil111i:BJJK$Bt.tf!-
19、m&a.$tfM!tll tE:f!.t1i:tE*.tUTCmWo-f-1i:,lil111i:JWJJ!KB(J*AM=1BtAA.El?t$i5l lltAAc 42 I -:,1-&:- ffi:X.ftA-7g.-B*MM-TIAR-8ftffiM.Wfil2M.ftH.B8H*7gM7gIT,M-ft#affiM%.ffiM8-87g:1f=1f-c(u-u)*-mMH-.-7g-MH*7gmmttmM.ffiM attJJli:ff=i.3HrmMH.r*.ey:X.7g 1J11jlBPfftll-.2.fBMHrH*-ftmf*PC(1t0=1t2)PC(1t0=1t1)u*
20、u.,.,.00 s-s ll11Jat9!M.*1J-tf:Wf8.t ii&*:X.:fmM*,iJllFQBHn1t1-J3t5*ttMi!&il&*ffii!&1fteyjfQitlYllfl=ffl .,_ .HPifoliJ.8.fffi3J(1M=il&fmM:fftfl.ill.tJtij-.*Mtl-8.t 7gJ:-.t A-515 llfil iJH1 J.z,.:lHlf I*?ii ffl j!ij#;lJF7tmM ff l!-*;JJFJJ.l._.rx 7:i:819 1i 11&.XJ:tiif i:2008 1if:Cl)$ij*:x.mlnx7g*-ftE
21、JGnl!:JJ!.mM=1:.m*1:.ifmt,110-ffl*-FJlS-lfrl5Jf.BR-ft*M-.(2);ftjffl AD-AS mf:$ft nmMA8-T*-ffl-Im)-mA*8111:.f#Mr.mMA*eym009 p 1;00 5-9 um AD-AS;lfmlft 009.mMA8.tsr*-.43 u.Ana.-u.mmL*.ooAMr.M oogili.rnfooAfM:ttmA.mfw.mm*f rl1*f-f*1.1mm*f.miliTnm1Ja.-;f!Jffl ft1JaB!JtijlJ$;f!J9WT dllafuHfm&7-2 u 00 5-1
22、0$&tf.J%1:fJU!l1J ttHliSJs$;f!J9WTdlla nm.zrBJ?i:ttllt*tf.J:fxiti*iliJaJ$c*n*fitf.Jm&JW.a 5lf.81JlfffiJtit.tl!:?-ilif&tf.JMl:fft*1J=3A1fJBtMn.m-iliJW.nm&BtMmAA$9Wfdlltt.tiaOOlOtf.JLtf.J-mAA$-Mdll .-i!.lffimI*;K$zfBJtf.J.ttiti*f:&r?iti:.!la*i-lffim*1J:ttfLtr A1fJBtAAtf.J*.fr.JJ;1c-*-Mirlrt;1c*fH:tt$X
23、s1.Kf L.Wl 00 5-10 tf.J s.B D Im,*M$J=tWfdll M*AA*W,11JtAAtf.J8m*n-ft.mtttf.J;lc$-tE;K$*f;K$n&$zfBJfi:tt*Jtir$.tMdlltJfl3;K*f a=M*AA*w.awmr*ttam;1c.jffi*L*1WiJtHi-bi=lJ$;f!J=tWfdll;lg:1l=1Z_1-0.4(u-o.06),*=(1)bi=lJ 13$&?(2)11!1Jilibi=1JM*1*M$J=tWfdll.:(1)311=1!_1 13?!.;lc$u=u,Pu.=6%:rnwr,iif tf.JmAA
24、$;f!J9WT dllatf.1:+$-o.4,li2rt u:;:(i.06.1l=11_1.B.:tE*M.11Jtw:Jjffi&$rjffi&$.ffi$.;K$c$.*MWfdlla-filf rt;lc$tf.1:.1.f2mtf.JmAA*AA$*uMdllaaoo 5-11 pJTlf-.7t 1t3 PC(x=x3)Xz PC(x=x2)7t I PC(x=x1)0 u=6%u 44(m=JHOOOocJf.fJ37Jt)Uif=mf1JffiHM!E81MbtfOJ81mm!IJ!tlf!lmo Bi!)i:Wf 73 7 0:1J,f 81tm=1.rffiitbf f
25、fiqi:fli 81-=fffi.*xJ1.bfn:Ji 81 l=H.:t:fl!J 1-,l!P 7t 7t,fft a!E,m=Jt*f!JOOi&xfo 1.7E7til 7E7tmt-:flXf!lXz7to*rx817t7tmtmMqim?81-Wm 8B7E:B-ffl81U:-X817E7t-mqiffJi:orqimz*81-B7E:BfLlfflxt!:J.1iJa,?bt7ttJT*,JE5t8;t mXB17E:B-mto 2.fft&1ft i IE m1ft.7(f Jjj:m.xta!E,:l JWJm.JJIUB/F:l!Jil.it11i mi 0?*im
26、1!HlJ r1ft m.DW11ftm(CPI)t=i!r1ftmfi CPPJ).fl:J GDP 1JTJ!m*o 3.rm:t.iJ11r:tfH bt*m?:E-1-!f.fi:EB1MHtffit=B1Af=:fl:f!JAi&.AB1M*o imffl-!EB1M t=mf*oMbtMJt*MMm*X.-MmM,-.l.iE*=fMm.-a81f1irf!lt*!J!flW:e 4.lili&xlflr!Wlf OOff-fBJmx:H:81tJJ,ooff-qxxfemi79-001ixJ1.m:81m:t,jz-.-ooagooqx x:JlU5l/FN.&7l!1-00*8
27、1xtHmxtttNiJl,.&tfliIEm81a!Ello-00.IEi&xr.k:if-B1.mt,r&xtoomlfif1Pm.JArmJJlljOjOOll?:),J(f,fft.&.?4m:itt*.-a:a1 .titl!l-1-*x_w.m=tzfBJ:if1C=fB1.-e:1nzfBJf?t=;.lE.JfJtii.iaJB1!Jil.:flmxu1.lit.filJiiffl!Em:.tf!l*JH$:lJnT#rif.jl.im fff-zfBJ811i.wci73*xJ11.maa1.=,MU111CffijllJlft 1.M-l011C ffijllJ X tta
28、a:a.Jf.fqimi&f!lxW!2A*rmlljOjmtf!looi&.A81a.m:ffill)i:W.:*tiffimMtiffqim:ffi-*R*81ll)i:W.*mw*m=m*B1Ma,ffia*&*#*ma73*a.2.MD&D&1U1111CffijllJ wtaaf!lm:ffiaW.81i1.ifiiJo6-1 FJT7F l!lJOOJttJT).6-1 ttaaf!lm:ffiaB1JJllj0j 45 a#X1;flj$8 fljPjllj xtj!j msqfljutnJ xtmm BjfljutnJ x;f GDP 8JfljPfuj-515 aaa IMh
29、Jt feW J fl E f.f-ff wt a a mt1a:;IJDi&Jff.tf x).Lft-;IJD&;IJD-fHi mt a a 1:ft.=.Lft-;IJD;IJD;IJD!ft:JJD_ijf.m:ffia ffl IS-LM db#r:rci&A&Fomffi-*&.tmffi:;r-.$1Zr.ftl$rX:llJ1amm.1ittmJ5rnttmlll&:1:it/f:1J;1;0 o t00 6-1 b)i:p,i IS dbm*rWM!So tr:U:1J/SI.:lfti&AMY2:flj Yi;f!J$M10:flj i 100 6-1(a)i:p 3;f
30、lJ$73 rl,ff.BJN:mWI:.:f i:itl ii,mi r:flj i1 llt&i i1i1!l&imo.r r y(a)(b)00 6-1 i&-*(2);IJDiiJTtmo 1JDPJTfiA1flPJx!IBi&A7./.M.W&j!jxlli.l!IEJ:W/S db tr:Uo 1F11Etr:Utwf5Lill006-l Cb)tfJS0:1J1s1,9!1J4tA.fD;fiJ$5tJy2:fllr01lif:tly1llJi,E13riiM.lJm#:;r-nmE*.wmm*dbm73.mrnrMiwmm.ttm:l:JAi01JD:IJi0,!f)ti.P
31、JTm8(5jitm,4tA.l!l:fiJ$8r_f;N:m!JJ1JD7 o:=:,aalk;lt*1.MaaIA aaaIAma!ff73mamooia.M:Wti&x tll i&IMxtll:i&IMX1R*oi&Jff8nmxlli.ntt%dtt*ll1ho i&IM$Htf1:i&!fftt:mfuf-:ttm:J&*M7Joo8Jxlli 0 C2)i&IM4tA a!Mmi&:oo73TJmjtn.-ffl1Esqm.-aai&ABJ-#:0 46 CDlf.J:Ji!&W.5$frMi!&?IF*o m=Brt0mamlf.JB-ffi*o 2.EiZ;tJe)E.eyJ
32、Jftffl(1)i;IJi,%JiJ z;IJ 8/E ff Z;tJa)E&affmm*#alf.J-#&#mmA*lf.Jm.rrmMZ;tJ-.rrmMZ;tJ&m*ffWffZ;tJottaa lf.Ji3:#ae!mrm:JJ:iirtiv.-r=:rm*1JNfiu:&m:s1:m-.ammqu1 Z;tJft.%=.il&Jff$U$xNlf.J z;IJ1t m:=:.:&f=&=ldft ft t.*JN.t.:iiwtaaJ.rt lf.1 rr a J:E ff i!-t:Hfl=;lHJJ Jt mJ.E ff tll JW.Z;tJ s1 m-iUJJ.*1l&ua
33、-J:E N.t.mZ;JJ.amiliff,mfflfilf.J.mJW.t.f*o.a mJ.EmttaaBmualf.Jtto c 2):Z;tJ oo 1J-l!JJ f.1 ft m lf.1 tt n&illJ.rt Mf.lmlf.Jttaarattlf.JMaa.mamma.am*NM.:Z;tJ .:.*-ttn&m.z;IJlli*-Fm-A*-iliaJ:Elf.J*-Fo,.,2m*iA.J.EmwtaJt1:!1J.*1Jl*!i!ua jJm:JX1.J.*-tt&mc&0mm.,.1-AJiMm)o .amrtNM.am!i!uiiTilulilf.JMaaJ.r
34、t*u.lVS*o;mt11f.JwtaaM&amxtll o&am0Ixll!3a1r-uxll)&-ltxttfllm45c o wtaalf.JlllHi%-,iliio iAi9.8-iWi*lf.Jft,z;1JttaaJ&f1=ma1Y.tt.B:Jrar._,.J;=/ftio ffwtaa,am001ifiifijf/JTifi81/fUfU:m-:-._*fij(1J-xtml!.liJH ,.=%=.a&-Bwrn.8.ilfi Jbk-Fimrttaa f1=m:it1Jffiik tf-lt:.Ji ilfi.$d)1t-trsr.-I.lo m:=:.*a81/fJ:
35、iJBMlf.JMmlf.Jmo I/1Ji tll:t 0 3.Mi!&.lt-JJJi o):N-fEB=*&1-tti!&:Nlf.J45c-FE o fflJM-fB=amam45cxa-1-iif fflJMf*t.f-fE,5R-a115$fril3B1?1F*o r;.3)rJJtta.m:!aEti.taa.JW.ximms11E7tl!,ltilf?J 1 1s!lilZ9Jxtoo qxA$Jf8JlljlfaJ.c 1)wtaax-*1s!lilEt-J*w:FF_-r(%)LM r(%)LM y y fff tH 1fftl:lxmamxtl:l*1JJlJT518fl
36、AflNfrf.J*IS-LM-i:p,LM ilB.,i!<-fxtl:l*:JJa,1s!lilJo11Jl.tl9J,#mtmwr5J$Et-JJ:ft-lDOOi&A.Et-J:JJa.m;u$a.J:ft-111ltl-ffil*flAN,f!l*fiE8*fi.,Mi!&x tl:l!l1Jtl 51 IE i&A1Jti E8fx:i:1Jr ,-ffimE8CLM!lil)$#E800i&AE81Jtlt#WE800i&A*:i:Z.J!JtJ$J:f!-51E8 ffftl:l 0(3)Maa-*LM!lilEf.Jj4$W:ff :ruioo 6-3 Jlf.ft JS
37、!lilEf.J#-4$.taax-*X.LM!lilEf.Jj4$1fSJWISJ.LM!lilEt-J#-4$j(.!P LM!lili;tw.VWf$i;tJ IS!lilqxAi;tJ-1J,!PY!taax*J,&Z.LM -m.inuMaax-*48-l LM r(%)Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 y 00 6-3 Wfil&ilx:J-1l:t!f:iz;J LM dll8jl$ffilfl!c4)15A-.:X.twm ll LM flll).Jt Ffllx M*1Gx)004m.dllk8.R-k*,ffil*OOA*.M*s%x*.ff:ff7t(t-Jf1t11JZ.v 0
38、LM oo 6-4 ti:.:X.tw:mY!ta*(5)f&lzllijM.,Wf.:X.-liEl;IJt:HfilllJttw:m 7k-FB9 LM flll),ll:t fj(fR:raJ,)6 iz;i3 LM HIJl.K-F.h.fxtt*Ff 11,.Affi1Mil&il&5$:7tfl.r(%)LM I:/S IS Yo Y1 y oo 6-5 t&lzllijM.,wr.:x.tw:mwti!&D&*.lplti:ttff!J1Ntit-tl!f1*1mfl1c=600+0.syd,Nflllfl;=400-sor,i!&Jf.f g=200,fl ffi?l;J(fl
39、llfl L=250+0.5y-125r,flffijt M,=1250,iftf&;lj(-f P=I 1NEiJ&Jf.f _Rl&E Ii.:Jf ilBilJ-flj,*=(1)JS LM/ifl.(2)ifi&AJ$.49 HmYI:*:$81s$r.*B-2011 liJfJ M:1)i&lfff.9!lJ3f1ti,1faHIEW!fR.IET:J 2000 y=c+i+g=600+0.8(y-200)+400-50r+200=0.8y-50r+I040!fll.JS EIH:1Jf:y=5200-250r o El3:Yi ffi m d!f ilT:M,/P=L=250+0.
40、5y-l25r M=1250 P=l:JJ.tLM Elfl:1r:f:y=2000+250r o c 2)lf*Jl._ti:Jm-11Jl:1t*M!r!J$*1:V!ffir!JJ:m!EJB1:1:)J1tilJ:l:)J1ti;f!J$T:J,.=6.4(%),q11:AT:J y=3600 1lit).o A(3):lzo:l1t7tWi:E!gmf;l&Al!Jsooo 1Zit 129:7:J LM EIH&.JlJTIJ.y=50001-AitlLM EIH:1JfLj:TtU1t7tmtB18J;f!J$73r=12%),i&;wf1Ji&lffxlli13x,IJ!;wf
41、1J 1s EIHEl3:l!Dr-ll0J:1Jc/E:*,:y=.c+i+g c 600+0.8yd yd=y-t i=400-50r g=J=X EJltif:y=600+0.8(y-x)+400-SOr+x,li!W:1S!B1Jfll5J:y=5000+x-250r o y=sooo,.=121-itA_tJ:tilTtJt:7t8JtrE!Ji&ffif:tlliT:J x=3000,f.ffJflift1Jni&Jff:?kJt:7t k,.Wt.ffJtff1JD9!tJ!k 28000.-,ffii&1.tl 1.fftl*1ffif#itlt mMffaftjffictff
42、lMffmm:Yiffio#1E4$.q:i*mff;wr-ffimmMffacmffimr.i.:kl!l;wr*mffimlJffi.l!lmffimtto,.d k=-#arstEe1liiliFilitHrE!fl4.W!E!.IE1JtoJmt9!81)1Jo_tmtrffllfltt1f 81jffi:Yi.ill l!Jmffi:Yiffi.Xftmffihmffio:lzD:!JIHEfflMffatojffimmT:J:Yi ffim:1:.IEJB1 I A!il.ht ffi H Jltll1B1:Yi ffiE1J-0J:T:I:50/L c.1-+M c.+D D r
43、e+1 H=C.+Rd+R,=C.+Rd+R,=re+rd+r,D D D-Vtfurfl ii:.m 7FIillL11iffl*f,c 7FJJe.IH:11$,r 7F1!114lt$E114ln tifli114)(1)l:tlIilll1Jrffl*Wc la r 1J3fftr m 11:l:tl la.Jiit clU r 3t-fttf.Jfitlt:.(2)-,:Ai$iltjfIAW.f&tf.J:1JiffliJ,Utl:!mfiiJ:1Jiffl*f t*lfnM*983 Hf fillj 20131if T:I am=r+c-(l;c)=o,IJJc.!:3filll
44、:Vi:ffi*fi m PX:.&rP.lffi*-*l!l.P c1JOBt m-fl,c ac(r+c)(r+c)rBt m1Jo.T:J am=-1;$,i:f:i!R:qHftE0ffmJm.tll&lf.fi#.m4*7:1*:m-&matf.Jmmffi*.a filllmffitf.Jr.mffimT:J*wr:k.2.1J(ffi il&1l.:.:kIA c 1).jij.Wi!iJ.W.$v&.jij.m*r:p!R:mffftmff&mtf.J M=*-Bt,Ti.jij.Wi!im*ftmffrP.J r:p!R:mffiiiaf!:bll.-m ffim:1:f!1
45、Ji1.-ntM.r:p!R:mff.;:-,Em4*m*-Bt r:p!R:mffEm4*Dftmff*af!.llatYiffim*.t*.MWYiffi m*r.*w*mrtat.r:p*ffEm4$.%=.Si:fFJ=f 5&-i?.!0 3.:1Ji ffi il&1f0tkfF/J J:tln39!tl 20iliW.amffiv&fFTm:k.Mft-$T:lYiffiv&-,f!l r:p.-ml;1J-.51 rt*.tr#njlijfil*m*-.-m m*-M*MJE-.-ffia-CMffii-)m*CM rm).mffi3re-mili.mffmffiaT=i=t+
46、a(p-p)-b(u-u)!,zo51!J:i!K;f!J.$,miI$CMffiimt$)*ilfUt1.mffi3*j!j-=f L*r-c).*ffmt-iJErt.&:fi-M$Cu).*Wffmt*$.*$.4 1Ji ffi ii:&tiJ fiij J!li tt c1)trMfrmffiaftB.mamm.ffr*ffi i!:&-:fBAB.c2)Mmffim-.ffi-njlij.ffi:f 1ltr1R:.1iol3:-Htr1R:#:H.mffijtMmB-Jn/nJmtD1J:J1T1a.(,.C3)m ffii!:&fFJll81.Mj,l-*B1JJIJll;J.
47、Ji.1Jom ffiMt 00 q5cA:ff:k.ffia*:&z.+-ffl-*ian8LMB:ll i.11!ffii!:&*fflltiJwm!iDOO 6-6 JlJTJF,1LM ffllm)jf(*:fB(:I.ffll:I:.EM ffllf.t$(ffirfr$.Jffi ffiJJ&)x-tooqicA.$.JojliJJJ,)t/t:i!:k:ocz.1S ffllM:;LMdb:ttl9JX100q5().$JJj it .;njlijmt1J.r(%)Y1Y2Y3 y oo 6-6:Wffia;&Is ffllB14rm:n 2.1Jiffii!:&j,j*LM d
48、btit:&i:ffi ft-.lll:*0 r IS y r LM/JL,1-/IS J,/I-;I J=r1 r 009 m.:)(MmEt-JMffi AB*fiJMaa8fflW*lJttlfHmMaa.lfHffl 1b:ffi8jtL lfHfM:#ffl?C*WJ:*946 fl!i1:f$2010 WfJ=mM:&i:ffim*fr*mEt-Jm.maEt-JmmmMaa:&i:ffiaE8:!Jf!.lltlfHfflMaa.lfHffl:&i:ffia.lfBt#Hfflo 53.mmmaeg.LM*m.111ffi.wMaa fl.111eymMaa;WftA.*LMm.
49、111Maa m-n.am*#*fi*meg-m111.amey-oo*r*ttegMaa*Fili*.t*ooeyffiG*fir*ttsgffiac111 11 tt:Vi:ffi&),:f1J$fH1*fl1k:i!l!Fj:_ mili.=:Jt-j fBJ:-Jl.11*m-11100-tttt.11100-att&-tttt.m#fi-A#sgfflM.ftffl Mm#mX*maeg#aMafimmeg.rn-t-#fl.llfr1*sgtj:/jJJJ.:fi*Wfr*-H&0Affiffl7#*1*MW-ffiim.111 ffir*Wffft-HOOT-7-:llf-sg.
50、*Wfr8fl7*M-H egaegaUllJ,MW&fia.Jtuas(Jll1f8J,_tt.JE:amli!tlit-t-mf.1&11l&.111r8J-ttt1sgmtfl1*2M=4fritsg,8tH$ilJTfRt;-fffl&R:sflB(JfiiRfil_t,WiifiiJA11Jm5F.:lr.Xf;J;lJ!Y!IJsgf;fftJl-f*sg;J;l1Y!IJ:t;iJfJ.feg1tM-B(JNHC9J.$.fmffJiA.a.,;/ct.mT-ffl&fgft1:kfJ3.t7C.&WiBt:*-:t1.ffi.ff:.amfflmBfJfl.(2)sgll1$.
